First, why did Disney suddenly decide to release the Black Widow premium access numbers? The decision was made weeks before release to disclose revenue if it was decent, I’m told, and, according to Disney sources, here are the reasons:
- Wall Street — For years, Disney shares would barely move when an Avengers or Star Wars movie broke some record on opening weekend. Investors expected that; it was baked in. But Disney stock popped 4 percent on Monday on the hybrid numbers, proving yet again that institutional investors are more focused on the streaming business model than on a traditional blockbuster. Disney knows this, and is reshaping its business practices accordingly.
- Talent — As I discussed in a previous email, Disney is paying bonuses to its stars and creatives based on lumping in the premium access revenue with box office for a total “consumer spend” pool. That means the numbers eventually will be public, or at least shared outside the company, so there is less reason not to release them now. Plus, agents, lawyers, and the media have been making increasing noise about the lack of transparency. Stars do Disney tentpoles for the scale; they want to be able to talk about how much money their movies have made.
- Narrative — Marvel’s Kevin Feige is a big believer in theatrical and revels in those Sunday numbers. So kneecapping the box office to boost streaming kinda destroys that halo of perception around his movies—unless a new success metric is created. By revealing a fuller picture on Sunday and flacking how over-the-moon the numbers are, Disney execs knew that they had a good story to tell, at least superficially, and that Feige could better control the Marvel narrative.
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