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Whisper Numbers: Brave aims for another Pixar hit

The official first weekend of summer comes with three new wide releases lead by Disney’s animated Brave [BRAVE].  Featuring the first female lead character in Pixar’s 13 film history, the PG-rated Brave is about a redheaded princess who prefers archery over corsets, but not much else is clear about the story set in ancient Scotland.  However, the Pixar brand itself is strong enough to attract audiences of all demographics. Even the subpar sequel Cars 2 debuted with $66 million last year.  Their last non-sequel Up banked a $68 million opening in 2009. one would have to go back to 2007’s Ratatouille for an underperformer at $47 million. Shooting into 4165 theaters, Brave may conquer $63 million.

The historical fantasy Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter [ALVH] surmises that our 16th President secretly slayed bloodsuckers during the Civil War. Although the R-rated film is based on a best-selling novel, recent genre mash-ups like Cowboys and Aliens and Jonah Hex have failed to find a broad audience. With no big stars in its cast, Fox’s main marketing point has been the 3D action from the director of Wanted, Timur Bekmambetov [TBEKM]. With a lack of options for young male moviegoers, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could attract enough wallets to score $21 million from 3106 theaters.

Even with direct competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted [MADG3] could still finish second if Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter falters. Madagascar 3 looks to collect another $19 million.

In its third week of release Prometheus [PROME] should finish fourth with another $10 million. Older female moviegoers should keep the musical Rock of Ages [ROAGE] from falling more than 50% to about $8 million. Unfortunately, nothing will stop the R-rated comedy That’s My Boy [TMBOY] from dropping more than 50% to $6 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE] and Keira Knightley [KKNIG] play an unlikely couple in the R-rated romantic comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World [SAFEW]. In order to attract its target audience of sophisticated adults, the unconventional film needs favorable reviews. Unfortunately, the buzz have mostly been negative. Arriving in 1618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World may find just $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BRAVE, ALVH, TBEKM, MADG3, PROME, ROAGE, TMBOY, SCARE, KKNIG, SAFEW

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 21, 2012 @ 04:03 PM 15450 views

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IF (IMGNF) 150000 110.70 (-2.97)          Barbarella (BARBA) 9000 54.25 (+0.01)          Willem Dafoe (WDAFO) 500 24.30 (-0.25)          Tenoch Huerta (THUER) 23000 65.50 (+0.23)          Stephan James (SJAME) 24000 22.70 (-0.12)          Press Your Luck (PLUCK) 150000 8.00 (0.00)          Press Your Luck (PLUCK) 150000 8.00 (0.00)          Calamity Hustle (CLMTY) 6000 56.96 (+2.71)          Kerry Condon (KCOND) 24000 21.01 (+0.12)          The Convert (CNVRT) 149999 1.88 (-0.06)          Christmas Eve in Miller's Point (CEIMP) 149999 1.76 (-0.14)          Drop (DROP) 149998 24.35 (+0.93)          Untitled Formula One aka Apex (FORM1) 4000 52.04 (+0.54)          Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (MMAX5) 93769 146.06 (+0.20)          The Wedding Banquet (TWEDB) 149998 10.29 (+0.83)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 39000 51.71 (-0.21)          Bowen Yang (BYANG) 1000 37.00 (-0.05)          Jazzy (JAZZY) 149999 2.02 (-0.19)          Ready or Not 2 (RONO2) 6000 15.13 (-0.74)          IF (IMGNF) 150000 110.70 (-2.97)          Michael Angarano (MANGA) 1000 71.13 (+0.51)          Garrett Hedlund (GHEDL) 25000 20.88 (-0.12)          Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow (SUPGR) 149996 57.07 (+0.89)          The Absence of Eden (KHGRD) 150000 0.25 (-0.04)          Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow (SUPGR) 6000 57.07 (+0.89)          IF (IMGNF) 150000 110.70 (-2.97)          Mortal Kombat 2 (MKMB2) 149999 35.81 (+0.30)          The Authority (AUTHO) 4000 45.28 (+0.05)          Mortal Kombat 2 (MKMB2) 149999 35.81 (+0.30)          I Know What You Did Last Summer (IKNO4) 149996 23.80 (+0.19)          I Know What You Did Last Summer (IKNO4) 6000 23.80 (+0.19)          The Substance (SBSTN) 100000 9.72 (+0.17)          Back to Black (BTBLK) 150000 9.61 (-1.06)          The Substance (SBSTN) 150000 9.72 (+0.17)          Jungle Cruise 2 (JUNG2) 1000 42.90 (+0.05)          Flowervale Street (FLWVS) 4000 42.95 (0.00)          Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (MMAX5) 54 146.06 (+0.20)          Sleeping Dogs (SDOGS) 150000 0.96 (+0.02)          Sophie Okonedo (SOKON) 24000 44.81 (-0.32)          Speak No Evil (SPNOE) 1000 38.42 (+0.19)          The Legend of Zelda (ZELDA) 33691 126.28 (+0.03)          Caleb Landry Jones (CLJON) 25000 14.82 (0.00)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 149999 5.31 (+0.21)          DogMan (DGMAN) 150000 0.89 (-0.01)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 149999 5.31 (+0.21)          Aang: The Last Airbender (ATLA1) 9000 41.96 (-0.06)          Babes (BABS) 1 2.81 (+0.18)          Naruto (NARUT) 1000 38.20 (+0.03)          The Greatest Hits (GRTHT) 150000 0.86 (-0.02)          Scream 7 aka Scream VII (SCRM7) 1000 38.06 (+0.05)