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Midnights are lagging way behind the previous two films, and there's no IMAX $$ this time. nm

Posted by: robineau on Nov 17, 06:59 in response to Ruthian23's post What makes you say that?

BO's estimates are up- TWLI4 150 (Fandango says more than 3000 showings sold out), HPYF2 42.5 (only 1% of daily sales on Fandango) Paul2k Nov 16, 14:28

I don't know where they're getting their figures. That's waaaaay too high for TWLI4. nm robineau Nov 16, 14:55

What makes you say that? {nm} Ruthian23 Nov 16, 15:13

Midnights are lagging way behind the previous two films, and there's no IMAX $$ this time. nm robineau Nov 17, 06:59

They make their estimates based off of, among other things, twitter and facebook tracking for which they have identified historical trends. {nm} Paul2k Nov 16, 15:21

I disagree. {nm} PVL Admin (Rocket123) Nov 16, 15:40

As much as I think it will be around $150M, there is more potential upside by shorting the OW at present, therefore I have done so. accountant_4_Jesus Nov 16, 15:43

Thanks for bringing up the derivatives; I had completely spaced on them and forgotten their strike prices. Adjusted accordingly. {nm} Paul2k Nov 16, 15:51

You disappoint me Paul... {nm} PRodQuanta Nov 16, 15:52

Happens even to the best of us, don't it? ;) {nm} accountant_4_Jesus Nov 16, 15:54

I agree. {nm} PVL Admin (Rocket123) Nov 16, 17:43

$150m is very realistic; the OW won't decrease from the second one, although I don't see it breaking the OW record either xiayun Nov 16, 17:08

Nice to have you back, xia. How was Hawaii? {nm} Paul2k Nov 16, 17:10

I'm still here! Just arrived at Maui; it's been wonderful, even better than my high expectation {nm} xiayun Nov 16, 17:30

I agree. {nm} PVL Admin (Rocket123) Nov 16, 17:44

I abstain. {nm} PRodQuanta Nov 16, 23:30





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Paddington 4 (PADT4) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150000 102.60 (-3.70)          Evil Dead Burn H$20 Call (EVLD6.CA) 25000 3.10 (-0.03)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Scary Movie H$105M Blockbuster W (SCAR6.BW) 25000 6.15 (+1.15)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Put (MNIO3.PU) 25000 1.07 (+0.01)          David Dastmalchian (DDAST) 25000 8.35 (+0.15)          Werwulf (WERWU) 28358 77.18 (+3.67)          Moana (MOAN1) 10000 229.66 (-1.84)          Hershey (HERSH) 150000 13.70 (+1.24)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 10000 307.39 (-4.69)          Werwulf (WERWU) 150000 77.18 (+3.67)          Young Washington H$10 Call (YWASH.CA) 25000 3.08 (+0.10)          Hershey (HERSH) 10000 13.70 (+1.24)          Young Washington H$10 Call (YWASH.CA) 25000 3.08 (+0.10)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 102.11 (-0.41)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 102.11 (-0.41)          Corporate Retreat (CRPRT) 150000 2.07 (+0.05)          Corporate Retreat (CRPRT) 150000 2.07 (+0.05)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 148863 422.46 (-1.15)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 149900 307.39 (-4.69)          Bloodsport (BLDSP) 787 20.14 (+0.02)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 50000 25.00 (0.00)          White Lies (WHTLI) 150000 14.11 (+2.36)          Deathstroke & Bane (DSTRK) 50000 61.25 (-8.51)          Nomad (NOMD1) 40000 0.85 (+0.01)          Hershey (HERSH) 75000 13.70 (+1.24)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          White Lies (WHTLI) 150000 14.11 (+2.36)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 150000 422.46 (-1.15)          Flavia (FLAVI) 150000 4.52 (+0.91)          Flavia (FLAVI) 150000 4.52 (+0.91)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 150000 307.39 (-4.69)          Miami Vice '85 (MIVIC) 75000 122.72 (+0.30)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 150000 422.46 (-1.15)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 2000 25.00 (0.00)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 102.11 (-0.41)          Leo Woodall (LWOOD) 1000 6.47 (0.00)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 10000 102.60 (-3.70)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 150000 307.39 (-4.69)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 10000 102.60 (-3.70)          Young Washington (YWASH) 150000 32.58 (-1.37)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 2 102.60 (-3.70)          Daniel: The Fiery Furnace (DANIL) 149999 7.65 (+0.43)          Daniel: The Fiery Furnace (DANIL) 150000 7.65 (+0.43)          Blood on Snow (BLOSN) 2000 14.61 (0.00)          Werwulf (WERWU) 4000 77.18 (+3.67)