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Midnights are lagging way behind the previous two films, and there's no IMAX $$ this time. nm

Posted by: robineau on Nov 17, 06:59 in response to Ruthian23's post What makes you say that?

BO's estimates are up- TWLI4 150 (Fandango says more than 3000 showings sold out), HPYF2 42.5 (only 1% of daily sales on Fandango) Paul2k Nov 16, 14:28

I don't know where they're getting their figures. That's waaaaay too high for TWLI4. nm robineau Nov 16, 14:55

What makes you say that? {nm} Ruthian23 Nov 16, 15:13

Midnights are lagging way behind the previous two films, and there's no IMAX $$ this time. nm robineau Nov 17, 06:59

They make their estimates based off of, among other things, twitter and facebook tracking for which they have identified historical trends. {nm} Paul2k Nov 16, 15:21

I disagree. {nm} PVL Admin (Rocket123) Nov 16, 15:40

As much as I think it will be around $150M, there is more potential upside by shorting the OW at present, therefore I have done so. accountant_4_Jesus Nov 16, 15:43

Thanks for bringing up the derivatives; I had completely spaced on them and forgotten their strike prices. Adjusted accordingly. {nm} Paul2k Nov 16, 15:51

You disappoint me Paul... {nm} PRodQuanta Nov 16, 15:52

Happens even to the best of us, don't it? ;) {nm} accountant_4_Jesus Nov 16, 15:54

I agree. {nm} PVL Admin (Rocket123) Nov 16, 17:43

$150m is very realistic; the OW won't decrease from the second one, although I don't see it breaking the OW record either xiayun Nov 16, 17:08

Nice to have you back, xia. How was Hawaii? {nm} Paul2k Nov 16, 17:10

I'm still here! Just arrived at Maui; it's been wonderful, even better than my high expectation {nm} xiayun Nov 16, 17:30

I agree. {nm} PVL Admin (Rocket123) Nov 16, 17:44

I abstain. {nm} PRodQuanta Nov 16, 23:30





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A Minecraft Movie Squared (MINE2) 10000 315.81 (-0.29)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 150000 15.00 (0.00)          Welcome to the Jungle (WLCM3) 9925 0.80 (+0.49)          Alison Brie (ABRIE) 50 20.04 (+0.20)          The Wild Robot Escapes (TWRB2) 12500 41.19 (-0.52)          The Way of the Wind (LPLNT) 150000 0.08 (+0.02)          Latchkey Kids (LTCHK) 150000 0.08 (+0.02)          Sniff (SNIFF) 150000 0.10 (+0.03)          Scary Movie (SCAR6) 50 112.02 (-1.02)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 137.39 (+2.02)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian and G (SWAR3) 150000 167.76 (-1.04)          Peddi (PEDDI) 50 5.09 (+0.11)          Night Nurse (NTNRS) 150000 1.47 (+0.52)          Welcome to the Jungle (WLCM3) 150000 0.80 (+0.49)          In the Hand of Dante (ITHOD) 100 1.11 (-0.50)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 137.39 (+2.02)          Disclosure Day H$45 Call (SKIES.CA) 25000 4.61 (-0.34)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 100000 137.39 (+2.02)          Chili Finger (CHILF) 100 2.95 (-0.02)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 150000 15.00 (0.00)          Backrooms (BACRM) 100 152.39 (+0.94)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 137.39 (+2.02)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 1 15.00 (0.00)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 137.39 (+2.02)          Gatto (GATTO) 150000 132.38 (+4.79)          Heart of the Beast (HOTBS) 75000 38.83 (+2.10)          Disclosure Day H$45 Call (SKIES.CA) 25000 4.61 (-0.34)          Disclosure Day - Opening Weekend (SKIES.OW) 100000 46.78 (-1.12)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 35000 204.94 (+1.57)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 137.39 (+2.02)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 137.39 (+2.02)          Heart of the Beast (HOTBS) 150000 38.83 (+2.10)          Scary Movie (SCAR6) 150000 112.02 (-1.02)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 80000 15.00 (0.00)          Doppelganger (DPLGN) 149998 69.06 (+2.38)          Doppelganger (DPLGN) 25000 69.06 (+2.38)          Hadestown: The Musical (HDSTW) 149998 7.34 (-0.07)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 137.39 (+2.02)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 137.39 (+2.02)          Disclosure Day H$45 Put (SKIES.PU) 25000 2.83 (-0.03)          Disclosure Day H$45 Call (SKIES.CA) 25000 4.61 (-0.34)          Disclosure Day - Opening Weekend (SKIES.OW) 100000 46.78 (-1.12)          Karoshi (KAROS) 150000 13.90 (+2.47)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 149997 137.39 (+2.02)          Karoshi (KAROS) 2 13.90 (+2.47)          Disclosure Day H$45 Put (SKIES.PU) 25000 2.83 (-0.03)          Disclosure Day H$45 Call (SKIES.CA) 25000 4.61 (-0.34)          Disclosure Day - Opening Weekend (SKIES.OW) 99989 46.78 (-1.12)          Disclosure Day H$45 Put (SKIES.PU) 25000 2.83 (-0.03)          Disclosure Day H$45 Put (SKIES.PU) 25000 2.83 (-0.03)