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Whisper Numbers: Can Transcendence catch Rio 2?

Four new films open over the Easter holiday weekend, but the animated holdover Rio 2 [RIO2] is likely to ascend to first place. The first Rio slipped 33% over Easter weekend in 2011. Rio 2’s weekdays are slightly behind Rio, so a 35% decline would place Rio 2 a around $25 million, which could be enough to edge out the competition.

Johnny Depp [JDEPP] toplines the sci-fi thriller Transcendence [TRNSC] as a dying scientist whose consciousness gets uploaded into the digital cloud. While Depp playing an artificial intelligence run amuck may sound good on paper, moviegoers may prefer to see him as the hero trying to save the day. The PG-13 rated film is earning poor reviews, which could influence the older adult demographics coveted by Warner Bros.. Patched into 3455 theaters, Transcendence may secure $24 million.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier [CAPA2] is likely to burn off 50% in its third outing to about $20 million.

Sony targets Christians with the faith-based drama Heaven is for Real [HVNFR] based on a little boy’s near death experience. To build word of mouth heading into the holiday weekend, the PG-rated film opened on Wednesday and earned $3.7 million. Ringing into 2417 theaters, Heaven is for Real could capture $15 million over the weekend.

Marlon Wayans [MWAY] is back with another scary movie spoof A Haunted House 2 [AHAU2]. The first A Haunted House was a surprise hit for Open Road with an $18.1 million opening in January 2013. The R-rated sequel faces more competition this time, so A Haunted House 2 may settle for $13 million from 2310 locations.

With Earth Day approaching, Disney offers its latest nature documentary Bears [BEAR]. The G-rated film is aimed at the same audience that opened Chimpanzee to $10.7 million in 2012. Opening in 1720 theaters, Bears could wake up to $6.5 million.

As with most horror film, Oculus [OCULU] looks to drop more than 50% in its second weekend to $5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): RIO2, JDEPP, TRNSC, CAPA2, HVNFR, AHAU2, BEAR, OCULU

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, April 17, 2014 @ 02:51 PM 3334 views

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Paul Rudd (PRUDD) 5000 56.89 (-0.66)          James Corden (JCORD) 5000 29.07 (-0.65)          District 10 (DIS10) 150000 10.29 (-0.14)          Benedict Cumberbatch (BCUMB) 25000 50.60 (-0.16)          Rachel McAdams (RMCAD) 2000 90.10 (+0.02)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie $39 (MARI2.BW) 25000 19.48 (+0.57)          The Cat in the Hat (TCATH) 10000 91.79 (+2.23)          Obsession $150M Blockbuster Warr (OBSSN.BW) 25000 7.53 (+0.63)          J.K. Simmons (JKSIM) 25000 80.51 (-0.25)          Helldivers (HELDV) 150000 99.21 (-2.40)          Jack O'Connell (JAOCO) 24999 74.35 (+0.24)          Night Nurse (NTNRS) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          My Darling California (MDCAL) 15000 27.93 (+2.93)          Night Nurse (NTNRS) 100000 1.00 (0.00)          Jeremy Renner (JRENN) 15000 123.50 (-0.20)          The Furious (FURIS) 150000 3.93 (-0.62)          Zach Braff (ZBRAF) 25000 32.86 (-0.75)          Giancarlo Esposito (GESPO) 10000 57.10 (-0.06)          Giancarlo Esposito (GESPO) 100 57.10 (-0.06)          Craig Robinson (CROBI) 25000 70.49 (+1.00)          Alan Cumming (ACUMM) 25000 31.00 (+0.75)          Alan Cumming (ACUMM) 25000 31.00 (+0.75)          Alan Cumming (ACUMM) 25000 31.00 (+0.75)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 12000 166.36 (+0.05)          The Death of Robin Hood H$10 Put (TDORH.PU) 25000 2.49 (-0.10)          Sterling K. Brown (SKBRO) 25000 6.77 (-35.22)          Henry Cavill (HCAVI) 25000 104.09 (-22.49)          Guy Ritchie (GRITC) 25000 15.39 (-1.02)          The Invite (TINVT) 34000 19.77 (+0.12)          Eiza Gonzalez (EGONZ) 25000 13.44 (-4.02)          Untitled Event Film Directed by (UEFDD) 17500 67.07 (+0.22)          The Blair Witch Project 4 (TBWP4) 10000 29.73 (+2.50)          Heart of the Beast (HOTBS) 25800 36.87 (+0.19)          Golshifteh Farahani (GFARA) 6299 55.72 (+0.50)          The Jetsons (JETSN) 10000 56.50 (-2.95)          Golshifteh Farahani (GFARA) 25000 55.72 (+0.50)          Golshifteh Farahani (GFARA) 25000 55.72 (+0.50)          Beach Read (BCHRD) 5000 25.15 (+0.27)          George MacKay (GMACK) 25000 23.29 (-0.37)          Sterling K. Brown (SKBRO) 25000 6.77 (-35.22)          Man of Tomorrow (SPMOT) 3000 271.40 (+0.55)          Night Nurse (NTNRS) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Blair Witch Project 4 (TBWP4) 6000 29.73 (+2.50)          My Darling California (MDCAL) 10000 27.93 (+2.93)          Doppelganger (DPLGN) 50000 64.77 (+0.35)          The End of Oak Street (FLWVS) 149999 73.68 (+0.44)          Children of Blood and Bone (COBAB) 5000 25.22 (-0.19)          Colin Jost (CJOST) 25000 33.75 (+0.12)          Incredibles 3 (NCRD3) 2500 391.59 (+2.31)          Jeremy Irons (JIRON) 25000 79.30 (+0.48)