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Whisper Numbers: Can Transcendence catch Rio 2?

Four new films open over the Easter holiday weekend, but the animated holdover Rio 2 [RIO2] is likely to ascend to first place. The first Rio slipped 33% over Easter weekend in 2011. Rio 2’s weekdays are slightly behind Rio, so a 35% decline would place Rio 2 a around $25 million, which could be enough to edge out the competition.

Johnny Depp [JDEPP] toplines the sci-fi thriller Transcendence [TRNSC] as a dying scientist whose consciousness gets uploaded into the digital cloud. While Depp playing an artificial intelligence run amuck may sound good on paper, moviegoers may prefer to see him as the hero trying to save the day. The PG-13 rated film is earning poor reviews, which could influence the older adult demographics coveted by Warner Bros.. Patched into 3455 theaters, Transcendence may secure $24 million.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier [CAPA2] is likely to burn off 50% in its third outing to about $20 million.

Sony targets Christians with the faith-based drama Heaven is for Real [HVNFR] based on a little boy’s near death experience. To build word of mouth heading into the holiday weekend, the PG-rated film opened on Wednesday and earned $3.7 million. Ringing into 2417 theaters, Heaven is for Real could capture $15 million over the weekend.

Marlon Wayans [MWAY] is back with another scary movie spoof A Haunted House 2 [AHAU2]. The first A Haunted House was a surprise hit for Open Road with an $18.1 million opening in January 2013. The R-rated sequel faces more competition this time, so A Haunted House 2 may settle for $13 million from 2310 locations.

With Earth Day approaching, Disney offers its latest nature documentary Bears [BEAR]. The G-rated film is aimed at the same audience that opened Chimpanzee to $10.7 million in 2012. Opening in 1720 theaters, Bears could wake up to $6.5 million.

As with most horror film, Oculus [OCULU] looks to drop more than 50% in its second weekend to $5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): RIO2, JDEPP, TRNSC, CAPA2, HVNFR, AHAU2, BEAR, OCULU

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, April 17, 2014 @ 02:51 PM 3149 views

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Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 750 20.00 (0.00)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 150000 209.78 (+1.95)          Project Hail Mary H$70 Call (PRJHM.CA) 25000 4.08 (+0.60)          Project Hail Mary - Opening Week (PRJHM.OW) 100000 77.81 (+0.95)          In the Hand of Dante (ITHOD) 142500 4.65 (-1.81)          The Drama H$15 Put (TDRAM.PU) 25000 1.57 (-0.43)          Incredibles 3 (NCRD3) 13 373.73 (+1.68)          Man of Tomorrow (SPMOT) 4000 254.25 (+2.37)          The Horror Fund X (SPOOK) 20000 20.62 (+0.05)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie H$1 (MARI2.CA) 25000 3.13 (+1.13)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come H$10 (RONO2.PU) 25000 1.57 (+0.22)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come - Op (RONO2.OW) 100000 11.03 (-0.40)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come H$10 (RONO2.CA) 25000 2.93 (-0.20)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come H$10 (RONO2.CA) 25000 2.93 (-0.20)          The Drama H$15 Put (TDRAM.PU) 25000 1.57 (-0.43)          The Drama H$15 Put (TDRAM.PU) 25000 1.57 (-0.43)          Reptilia (REPTI) 150000 6.22 (-0.05)          Project Hail Mary H$70 Put (PRJHM.PU) 25000 2.50 (-0.04)          Project Hail Mary H$70 Put (PRJHM.PU) 25000 2.50 (-0.04)          Project Hail Mary - Opening Week (PRJHM.OW) 100000 77.81 (+0.95)          Kirsten Dunst (KDUNS) 25000 53.41 (+2.23)          Project Hail Mary H$70 Call (PRJHM.CA) 25000 4.08 (+0.60)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 150000 95.19 (+0.62)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 150000 95.19 (+0.62)          The Mandalorian and Grogu (SWAR3) 10000 219.59 (+0.96)          A Minecraft Movie II (MINE2) 20000 304.39 (+1.00)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 100.40 (-2.75)          High in the Clouds (HINTC) 150000 13.36 (+0.16)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 40000 100.40 (-2.75)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come (RONO2) 60000 25.81 (-0.59)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 5600 219.77 (+0.12)          Big Thunder Mountain (BTMTN) 15000 22.05 (+2.42)          Fast Forever (FAF11) 7800 128.98 (+1.01)          The Young People (TYPEP) 41000 15.40 (-0.04)          Ice Cream Man (ICREM) 80134 8.48 (-0.05)          Hershey (HERSH) 16000 5.87 (-0.02)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 20000 8.42 (-0.04)          Smile 3 (SMIL3) 49 22.57 (-0.06)          Chitty Chitty Bang Bang (CCBB) 2 18.38 (-0.04)          Big Thunder Mountain (BTMTN) 150000 22.05 (+2.42)          Big Thunder Mountain (BTMTN) 150000 22.05 (+2.42)          Slanted (SLANT) 109999 3.19 (-0.11)          Mouse (MOUSE) 150000 1.81 (-0.07)          Normal (NORML) 16000 17.58 (-0.07)          Normal (NORML) 3600 17.58 (-0.07)          Three Incestuous Sisters (3INCS) 150000 12.90 (-0.51)          I Love Boosters (ILBOS) 35000 9.94 (-0.07)          Being Heumann (BHEUM) 150000 0.55 (-0.02)          John Rambo (RAMB6) 7000 35.76 (-0.12)          John Rambo (RAMB6) 2665 35.76 (-0.12)