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Whisper Numbers: Can Transcendence catch Rio 2?

Four new films open over the Easter holiday weekend, but the animated holdover Rio 2 [RIO2] is likely to ascend to first place. The first Rio slipped 33% over Easter weekend in 2011. Rio 2’s weekdays are slightly behind Rio, so a 35% decline would place Rio 2 a around $25 million, which could be enough to edge out the competition.

Johnny Depp [JDEPP] toplines the sci-fi thriller Transcendence [TRNSC] as a dying scientist whose consciousness gets uploaded into the digital cloud. While Depp playing an artificial intelligence run amuck may sound good on paper, moviegoers may prefer to see him as the hero trying to save the day. The PG-13 rated film is earning poor reviews, which could influence the older adult demographics coveted by Warner Bros.. Patched into 3455 theaters, Transcendence may secure $24 million.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier [CAPA2] is likely to burn off 50% in its third outing to about $20 million.

Sony targets Christians with the faith-based drama Heaven is for Real [HVNFR] based on a little boy’s near death experience. To build word of mouth heading into the holiday weekend, the PG-rated film opened on Wednesday and earned $3.7 million. Ringing into 2417 theaters, Heaven is for Real could capture $15 million over the weekend.

Marlon Wayans [MWAY] is back with another scary movie spoof A Haunted House 2 [AHAU2]. The first A Haunted House was a surprise hit for Open Road with an $18.1 million opening in January 2013. The R-rated sequel faces more competition this time, so A Haunted House 2 may settle for $13 million from 2310 locations.

With Earth Day approaching, Disney offers its latest nature documentary Bears [BEAR]. The G-rated film is aimed at the same audience that opened Chimpanzee to $10.7 million in 2012. Opening in 1720 theaters, Bears could wake up to $6.5 million.

As with most horror film, Oculus [OCULU] looks to drop more than 50% in its second weekend to $5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): RIO2, JDEPP, TRNSC, CAPA2, HVNFR, AHAU2, BEAR, OCULU

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, April 17, 2014 @ 02:51 PM 3376 views

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Jackass: Best and Last (JCKA6) 34000 46.61 (-3.64)          Bad Fairies (BFAIR) 20000 52.39 (+0.82)          The Lord of the Rings: The Hunt (LOTR5) 20000 183.32 (+0.38)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 25000 25.91 (+0.31)          Evil Dead Burn - Opening Weekend (EVLD6.OW) 100000 20.00 (0.00)          Evil Dead Burn H$20 Call (EVLD6.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Girls Like Girls (GRLGR) 65000 5.30 (-0.20)          Moana - Opening Weekend (MOAN1.OW) 100000 100.00 (0.00)          Moana H$100 Put (MOAN1.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 5000 25.91 (+0.31)          Easy's Waltz (EWLTZ) 150000 5.41 (+0.67)          Moana H$100 Call (MOAN1.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Flavia (FLAVI) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 4000 26.19 (+0.32)          Jackass: Best and Last (JCKA6) 150000 46.61 (-3.64)          Werwulf (WERWU) 150000 73.00 (+1.53)          Evil Dead Burn H$20 Call (EVLD6.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Evil Dead Burn - Opening Weekend (EVLD6.OW) 100000 20.00 (0.00)          The Invite (TINVT) 5000 19.45 (+0.07)          Moana - Opening Weekend (MOAN1.OW) 100000 100.00 (0.00)          It Ends (ITNDS) 150000 4.73 (+0.41)          Moana H$100 Put (MOAN1.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Jackass: Best and Last - Opening (JCKA6.OW) 100000 14.51 (-2.60)          Jackass: Best and Last - Opening (JCKA6.OW) 100000 14.51 (-2.60)          Moana H$100 Call (MOAN1.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          It Ends (ITNDS) 150000 4.73 (+0.41)          It Ends (ITNDS) 150000 4.73 (+0.41)          Jackass: Best and Last (JCKA6) 150000 46.61 (-3.64)          Matthias Schoenaerts (MSCHO) 25000 34.21 (-0.37)          The Magic Faraway Tree (TMFAT) 150000 9.26 (+0.54)          Jackass: Best and Last (JCKA6) 150000 46.61 (-3.64)          The Magic Faraway Tree (TMFAT) 150000 9.26 (+0.54)          Octavia Spencer (OSPEN) 25000 36.15 (0.00)          Ray Nicholson (RANIC) 25000 20.79 (0.00)          Emma Mackey (EMACK) 25000 54.87 (0.00)          Shane Black (SBLAC) 25000 73.71 (0.00)          Morena Baccarin (MBACC) 25000 65.83 (-0.25)          Will Patton (WPATT) 25000 45.81 (-0.16)          Will Patton (WPATT) 25000 45.81 (-0.16)          Annabelle Wallis (AWALL) 25000 43.41 (-0.33)          Annabelle Wallis (AWALL) 25000 43.41 (-0.33)          Sense and Sensibility (SNSNS) 150000 16.84 (+0.98)          Spike Lee (SLEE) 25000 16.03 (0.00)          Omari Hardwick (OHARD) 25000 9.21 (0.00)          Omari Hardwick (OHARD) 25000 9.21 (0.00)          It Ends (ITNDS) 150000 4.73 (+0.41)          Sense and Sensibility (SNSNS) 150000 16.84 (+0.98)          Rashida Jones (RJONE) 25000 80.76 (0.00)          Rashida Jones (RJONE) 25000 80.76 (0.00)          Anya Taylor-Joy (ATJOY) 25000 128.32 (0.00)