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Whisper Numbers: Can Transcendence catch Rio 2?

Four new films open over the Easter holiday weekend, but the animated holdover Rio 2 [RIO2] is likely to ascend to first place. The first Rio slipped 33% over Easter weekend in 2011. Rio 2’s weekdays are slightly behind Rio, so a 35% decline would place Rio 2 a around $25 million, which could be enough to edge out the competition.

Johnny Depp [JDEPP] toplines the sci-fi thriller Transcendence [TRNSC] as a dying scientist whose consciousness gets uploaded into the digital cloud. While Depp playing an artificial intelligence run amuck may sound good on paper, moviegoers may prefer to see him as the hero trying to save the day. The PG-13 rated film is earning poor reviews, which could influence the older adult demographics coveted by Warner Bros.. Patched into 3455 theaters, Transcendence may secure $24 million.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier [CAPA2] is likely to burn off 50% in its third outing to about $20 million.

Sony targets Christians with the faith-based drama Heaven is for Real [HVNFR] based on a little boy’s near death experience. To build word of mouth heading into the holiday weekend, the PG-rated film opened on Wednesday and earned $3.7 million. Ringing into 2417 theaters, Heaven is for Real could capture $15 million over the weekend.

Marlon Wayans [MWAY] is back with another scary movie spoof A Haunted House 2 [AHAU2]. The first A Haunted House was a surprise hit for Open Road with an $18.1 million opening in January 2013. The R-rated sequel faces more competition this time, so A Haunted House 2 may settle for $13 million from 2310 locations.

With Earth Day approaching, Disney offers its latest nature documentary Bears [BEAR]. The G-rated film is aimed at the same audience that opened Chimpanzee to $10.7 million in 2012. Opening in 1720 theaters, Bears could wake up to $6.5 million.

As with most horror film, Oculus [OCULU] looks to drop more than 50% in its second weekend to $5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): RIO2, JDEPP, TRNSC, CAPA2, HVNFR, AHAU2, BEAR, OCULU

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, April 17, 2014 @ 02:51 PM 3581 views

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Spider-Man: Brand New Day $855M (SPID9.BW) 25000 13.06 (+0.49)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day $855M (SPID9.BW) 25000 13.06 (+0.49)          Treasure Island (TISLN) 150000 57.53 (+6.70)          By Any Means (CI34) 100000 20.68 (+0.31)          Paradise Lost (PLOST) 150000 15.00 (0.00)          Paradise Lost (PLOST) 5000 15.00 (0.00)          Treasure Island (TISLN) 40000 57.53 (+6.70)          The Masque Of The Red Death (MOTRD) 10000 16.04 (-0.16)          OASIS: Don't Look Back in A (OASIS) 25000 12.78 (-0.29)          Treasure Island (TISLN) 150000 57.53 (+6.70)          Street Fighter (STFTR) 25000 81.18 (+0.32)          Tom and Jerry: Forbidden Compass (TMJR2) 150000 7.27 (-0.76)          Dear You (DEARU) 150000 1.36 (-0.07)          In Love (NLOVE) 5000 16.61 (+0.12)          Spring Breakers 2: Salvation Mou (SPBR2) 150000 7.32 (+1.14)          Octet (OCTET) 10000 20.00 (-0.42)          The Mosquito Bowl (MSQTB) 150000 0.60 (-0.05)          Paradise Lost (PLOST) 150000 15.00 (0.00)          Sender (SENDR) 10000 6.21 (-0.07)          Sleight of Mind (SLTOM) 10000 3.57 (-0.21)          Still Life (STILF) 5000 5.47 (-0.49)          Stages (STGES) 10000 8.29 (-0.26)          Stages (STGES) 10000 8.29 (-0.26)          Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mu (TMNT4) 5000 72.98 (+2.47)          Naruto (NARUT) 5000 36.41 (-0.32)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 2000 174.18 (-4.35)          Dear You (DEARU) 87 1.36 (-0.07)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6) 90 187.31 (+0.45)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6) 90 187.31 (+0.45)          Paradise Lost (PLOST) 1 15.00 (0.00)          Helen & Teacher (HELNT) 8000 0.01 (0.00)          Crazy Rich Asians 2: China Rich (CRAS2) 150000 16.68 (-0.08)          All That I Am (ATIAM) 8000 0.01 (-0.01)          Tunnels (TUNLS) 8000 0.01 (0.00)          Helen & Teacher (HELNT) 8000 0.01 (0.00)          All That I Am (ATIAM) 8000 0.01 (-0.01)          Wardriver (WARDR) 8000 0.01 (-0.02)          Brightwater (BRTWT) 8000 0.01 (-0.01)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 15000 127.50 (+0.28)          The Masque Of The Red Death (MOTRD) 11000 16.04 (-0.16)          Katy Perry: The Lifetime Tour - (KPTLT) 2881 2.97 (-0.83)          Primetime (PRMTM) 150000 31.49 (-2.14)          Primetime (PRMTM) 150000 31.49 (-2.14)          Katy Perry: The Lifetime Tour - (KPTLT) 13 2.97 (-0.83)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6) 47 187.31 (+0.45)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 150000 174.18 (-4.35)          The Masque Of The Red Death (MOTRD) 11000 16.04 (-0.16)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 15000 127.50 (+0.28)          Game of Thrones: Aegon’s Conqu (GOTAC) 25000 116.79 (+0.78)          The Cat in the Hat (TCATH) 35000 106.19 (+0.63)