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Whisper Numbers: Can Transcendence catch Rio 2?

Four new films open over the Easter holiday weekend, but the animated holdover Rio 2 [RIO2] is likely to ascend to first place. The first Rio slipped 33% over Easter weekend in 2011. Rio 2’s weekdays are slightly behind Rio, so a 35% decline would place Rio 2 a around $25 million, which could be enough to edge out the competition.

Johnny Depp [JDEPP] toplines the sci-fi thriller Transcendence [TRNSC] as a dying scientist whose consciousness gets uploaded into the digital cloud. While Depp playing an artificial intelligence run amuck may sound good on paper, moviegoers may prefer to see him as the hero trying to save the day. The PG-13 rated film is earning poor reviews, which could influence the older adult demographics coveted by Warner Bros.. Patched into 3455 theaters, Transcendence may secure $24 million.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier [CAPA2] is likely to burn off 50% in its third outing to about $20 million.

Sony targets Christians with the faith-based drama Heaven is for Real [HVNFR] based on a little boy’s near death experience. To build word of mouth heading into the holiday weekend, the PG-rated film opened on Wednesday and earned $3.7 million. Ringing into 2417 theaters, Heaven is for Real could capture $15 million over the weekend.

Marlon Wayans [MWAY] is back with another scary movie spoof A Haunted House 2 [AHAU2]. The first A Haunted House was a surprise hit for Open Road with an $18.1 million opening in January 2013. The R-rated sequel faces more competition this time, so A Haunted House 2 may settle for $13 million from 2310 locations.

With Earth Day approaching, Disney offers its latest nature documentary Bears [BEAR]. The G-rated film is aimed at the same audience that opened Chimpanzee to $10.7 million in 2012. Opening in 1720 theaters, Bears could wake up to $6.5 million.

As with most horror film, Oculus [OCULU] looks to drop more than 50% in its second weekend to $5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): RIO2, JDEPP, TRNSC, CAPA2, HVNFR, AHAU2, BEAR, OCULU

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, April 17, 2014 @ 02:51 PM 3496 views

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Naruto (NARUT) 4784 25.34 (+1.57)          Obsession $150M Blockbuster Warr (OBSSN.BW) 25000 26.74 (+1.61)          Oh, the Places You'll Go (OTPYG) 141676 101.02 (+1.21)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 44897 75.83 (+4.75)          The End of Oak Street (FLWVS) 23018 87.29 (-2.39)          Driver's Ed (DRVED) 150000 0.45 (-0.04)          Andy Muschietti (AMUSC) 999 167.33 (-0.20)          Andy Muschietti (AMUSC) 999 167.33 (-0.20)          Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity (GDCSP) 150000 2.29 (-0.05)          Victorian Psycho (VPSYC) 49999 14.50 (-1.12)          Victorian Psycho (VPSYC) 60000 14.50 (-1.12)          Victorian Psycho (VPSYC) 149999 14.50 (-1.12)          Magic Hour (MGCHR) 150000 0.01 (-0.02)          Jurassic World sequel (JURA8) 5000 234.87 (-3.30)          Jurassic World sequel (JURA8) 5000 234.87 (-3.30)          Super Troopers 3 (STRO3) 149533 24.20 (+0.03)          Star Wars: Starfighter (SWAR4) 10000 261.97 (-5.37)          Star Wars: Starfighter (SWAR4) 10000 261.97 (-5.37)          Elsinore (ELSNR) 150000 6.92 (-0.30)          Elsinore (ELSNR) 149999 6.92 (-0.30)          Atonement (ATONM) 149998 1.82 (-0.14)          48 Hours in Vegas (48HIV) 60000 5.36 (-0.08)          PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie (PAWP3) 50000 47.80 (+3.01)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Minions & Monsters $155M Blo (MNIO3.BW) 25000 10.02 (+0.53)          Five Nights at Freddy's 3 (5NAF3) 150000 82.82 (+2.03)          Atonement (ATONM) 150000 1.82 (-0.14)          I Play Rocky (IPROC) 200 36.47 (+0.23)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 150000 75.83 (+4.75)          Margie Claus (MARGC) 150000 28.31 (-0.66)          The Thomas Crown Affair (TTCAF) 500 60.04 (+0.07)          Call of Duty (CODUT) 400 108.93 (+0.22)          A Manual for Cleaning Women (AMFCW) 150000 0.10 (+0.02)          The Legend of Zelda (ZELDA) 133107 226.85 (+0.33)          And Then There Were None (ATTWN) 150000 0.08 (-0.02)          Man of Tomorrow (SPMOT) 126446 263.00 (+0.27)          Naruto (NARUT) 150000 25.34 (+1.57)          Oh, the Places You'll Go (OTPYG) 200 101.02 (+1.21)          Naruto (NARUT) 150000 25.34 (+1.57)          Andorra (ANDOR) 150000 0.11 (+0.01)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 150000 75.83 (+4.75)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 150000 52.15 (+5.46)          The Smack (SMACK) 150000 0.10 (+0.01)          Ono Ghost Market (ONOGM) 150000 97.69 (+0.50)          Jehanne d'Arc (JDARC) 100 32.32 (+0.04)          Branded (BRAND) 150000 0.08 (+0.02)          The Climb (CLIMB) 150000 0.08 (+0.01)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 2376 5.00 (0.00)          Assisted Living (ASLIV) 150000 0.08 (+0.01)          The Matrix 5 (MTRX5) 150000 28.64 (-0.26)