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Whisper Numbers: Battleship sights up The Avengers

Three new wide releases enter the box office fray, but the blockbuster holdover The Avengers [AVNGR] still looms large. The Marvel superheroes declined 50%, respectable after its record-smashing debut, in its second weekend and should improve on that in its third weekend. The crowd-pleasing The Avengers looks to bank another $57 million, which should be enough to remain in the pole position.

The classic board game Battleship [BTSHP] has been turned into a sci-fi actioner featuring aliens. Universal has marketed the PG-13 rated film relentlessly as Transformers at sea. Without the popular giant robots, however, the end results look more like Battle: Los Angeles at sea. Taylor Kitsch [TKITS], Liam Neeson [LNEES] and popstar Rihanna lead the cast, but the biggest selling point is the special effects. Unfortunately, Battleship may flounder in the wake of its main competitor The Avengers. The film has already opened overseas to poor reviews, which could discourage the more discriminating moviegoers. It also doesn’t help that most people considers the idea of adapting a story-less boardgame into a movie a complete joke. Hitting 3690 theaters, Battleship could score upwards of $39 million.

Sacha Baron Cohen [SBCOH] creates a new, politically incorrect character for The Dictator [DICTR], but this time in a story-driven comedy rather than a mockumentary. The R-rated film finds his Qaddafi-like North African ruler lost in New York City and learning to live like an ordinary immigrant with the help of an activist, played by Anna Faris [AFARI]. Cohen has tirelessly promoted the film in character, much like he did for his previous effort Bruno, which opened at $30.6 million in 2009. Unfortunately, Bruno suffered from poor word of mouth, which could still linger to this day and hurt the opening prospects of The Dictator. After opening on Wednesday and grossing $4.1 million, The Dictator may seize $21 million over the weekend from 3008 theaters.

Lionsgate has assembled an all-star ensemble cast for What to Expect When You’re Expecting [WTEXP], the latest self-help book to get the feature treatment. Cameron Diaz [CDIAZ], Jennifer Lopez [JLOPE], Elizabeth Banks [EBANK] play women going through the painful joys of pregnancy. Even with ads touting Chris Rock [CROCK] and the Dudes Group, guys would have to be dragged to the PG-13 rated comedy by their wives and girlfriends. Opening in 3021 theaters, What to Expect When You’re Expecting may deliver around $20 million.

Dark Shadows [DRKSH] attracted primarily older moviegoers who remembered the original TV series. That audience segment should keep Dark Shadows from tumbling more than 50% in its second weekend to around $15 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): AVNGR, BTSHP, TKITS, LNEES, SBCOH, DICTR, AFARI, WTEXP, CDIAZ, JLOPE, EBANK, CROCK, DRKSH

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, May 17, 2012 @ 03:44 PM 11113 views

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The Mummy 4 (MUMY5) 4000 101.25 (-0.21)          The Jetsons (JETSN) 150000 46.93 (-2.73)          Primetime (PRMTM) 50000 15.65 (+2.55)          The Jetsons (JETSN) 150000 46.93 (-2.73)          Woody Harrelson (WHARR) 25000 22.56 (-0.44)          Primetime (PRMTM) 150000 15.65 (+2.55)          Beach Read (BCHRD) 149999 21.98 (+1.98)          Woody Harrelson (WHARR) 25000 22.56 (-0.44)          Primetime (PRMTM) 150000 15.65 (+2.55)          Frozen III (FROZ3) 908 317.54 (-0.51)          Disclosure Day - Opening Weekend (SKIES.OW) 100000 45.00 (0.00)          Disclosure Day H$45 Call (SKIES.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Disclosure Day H$45 Put (SKIES.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 150000 342.41 (+1.38)          Stanley Tucci (STUCC) 25000 58.67 (+20.59)          Untitled Event Film Directed by (UEFDD) 4000 66.54 (+0.05)          Disclosure Day - Opening Weekend (SKIES.OW) 100000 45.00 (0.00)          The Breadwinner - Opening Weeken (BREDW.OW) 100000 10.12 (-0.34)          Cosmo Jarvis (CJARV) 25000 15.00 (0.00)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 150000 88.69 (-0.02)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 4000 254.33 (+0.06)          Emily Blunt (EBLUN) 25000 133.00 (+0.88)          Emily Blunt (EBLUN) 25000 133.00 (+0.88)          Disclosure Day - Opening Weekend (SKIES.OW) 100000 45.00 (0.00)          Stephen Graham (SGRAH) 25000 75.22 (-6.56)          Woody Harrelson (WHARR) 25000 22.56 (-0.44)          Disclosure Day H$45 Call (SKIES.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Disclosure Day H$45 Call (SKIES.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Disclosure Day H$45 Call (SKIES.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Meryl Streep (MSTRE) 2000 153.27 (+10.31)          Passenger (PSNGR) 120000 22.23 (-0.30)          Steve Buscemi (SBUSC) 25000 47.73 (+0.53)          Steve Buscemi (SBUSC) 25000 47.73 (+0.53)          Disclosure Day - Opening Weekend (SKIES.OW) 100000 45.00 (0.00)          The Devil Wears Prada 2 $200M Bl (PRAD2.BW) 25000 7.42 (+0.59)          Cosmo Jarvis (CJARV) 25000 15.00 (0.00)          B.J. Novak (BJNOV) 25000 100.58 (+0.17)          Frozen III (FROZ3) 2912 317.54 (-0.51)          Stephen Graham (SGRAH) 25000 75.22 (-6.56)          Primetime (PRMTM) 50000 15.65 (+2.55)          Disclosure Day H$45 Put (SKIES.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Cosmo Jarvis (CJARV) 25000 15.00 (0.00)          Disclosure Day H$45 Call (SKIES.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Glenn Close (GCLOS) 25000 6.70 (-0.16)          Renny Harlin (RHARL) 25000 16.37 (+0.26)          Beach Read (BCHRD) 150000 21.98 (+1.98)          Meryl Streep (MSTRE) 25000 153.27 (+10.31)          Ben Kingsley (BKING) 25000 14.09 (-0.42)          Stanley Tucci (STUCC) 10000 58.67 (+20.59)          Lucy Liu (LLIU) 25000 72.29 (+12.80)