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Whisper Numbers: Is Avatar about to change the course of movies?

Twelve years after directing his last feature film Titanic, the self-proclaimed ‘King of the World’ James Cameron [JCAME] is back to reclaim his throne with the sci-fi adventure Avatar [AVATR].  Using state-of-the-art 3D and performance capture technology, Cameron has created a world that seamlessly merged live-action with CG animation.   Although the trailers were initially met with skepticism, the finished film has garnered overwhelming positive, glowing reviews.  The film that set out to be an industry “game changer” has actually met the lofty expectation.  Fox marketing has been in overdrive positioning the $400 million movie as a must-experience 3D event. The buzz will only grow as the first midnight screenings let out.  I Am Legend’s December record of $77.2 million may be at risk.  The higher 3D ticket prices should compensate for the longer 160 minutes running time.  Descending upon 3453 theaters, Avatar could blow away $80 million.

Disney’s G-rated animated musical The Princess and the Frog [FROGP] should display long legs at the box office with the upcoming school break for the holidays.   A decay around 25% would give The Princess and the Frog $18 million and second place.

Sarah Jessica Parker [SJPAR] and Hugh Grant [HGRAN] pair up for the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? [MRGNS].   The film’s target demographic may be more interesting in shopping on the last weekend before Christmas than checking out yet another story about city slickers in the boondocks discovering themselves.  Opening in 2718 theaters, the Morgans may settle down with roughly $11 million.

Despite the A-list talent involved with Invictus [INVIC], American moviegoers were apparently not too interested in South African politics or the sport of Rugby.   The film’s older target audience may be waiting on reviews, which are generally favorable. In its sophomore frame, Invictus may decline around 30% to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): JCAME, AVATR, FROGP, SJPAR, HGRAN, MRGNS, INVIC

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2009 @ 04:08 PM 3653 views

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The Fall Guy (FALGY) 999 97.52 (-1.87)          Dominique Thorne (DTHOR) 10000 83.70 (+0.15)          Play Dirty (PLDRT) 20000 24.08 (-0.08)          28 Years Later (28LT3) 150000 52.97 (+0.18)          The Deliverance (DLVRN) 8000 0.01 (0.00)          Justice Smith (JUSMI) 494 103.66 (0.00)          Horse Latitudes (LPHOT) 8000 0.01 (-0.01)          The Legend of Zelda (ZELDA) 150000 111.50 (+1.33)          Laura Linney (LLINN) 4 19.51 (0.00)          Jermaine Fowler (JFOWL) 24494 11.84 (+0.01)          Eternity (ETERN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Dragonkeeper (DRGNK) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Woman in the Yard (TWITY) 1 22.11 (+0.02)          Dragonkeeper (DRGNK) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Legend of Zelda (ZELDA) 25000 111.50 (+1.33)          Alessandro Nivola (ANIVO) 4 5.51 (0.00)          IF (IMGNF) 1 147.67 (+0.04)          Dragonkeeper (DRGNK) 33242 1.00 (0.00)          Dragonkeeper (DRGNK) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Eternity (ETERN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Dev Patel (DPATE) 10008 12.18 (-0.14)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4) 150000 135.72 (-1.66)          Jurassic World Event Film (JURA7) 150000 251.59 (+0.20)          Dragonkeeper (DRGNK) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & (FFHS2) 150000 46.54 (-0.15)          Jason Statham (JSTAT) 1000 60.32 (-0.01)          Eternity (ETERN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Eternity (ETERN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          IF (IMGNF) 150000 147.67 (+0.04)          Reagan (REAGN) 150000 3.72 (-0.11)          Play Dirty (PLDRT) 150000 24.08 (-0.08)          Dragonkeeper (DRGNK) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Trans (LGBTQ) 20000 39.17 (+0.03)          Lords of War (LRDW2) 100 14.10 (-0.04)          The Return (TRETU) 1 7.36 (+0.02)          Terrifier 3 (TERF3) 49999 8.72 (0.00)          Goat (GOAT1) 30000 16.07 (-0.06)          Goat (GOAT1) 30000 16.07 (-0.06)          The Legend of Zelda (ZELDA) 41606 111.50 (+1.33)          Dragonkeeper (DRGNK) 116592 1.00 (0.00)          The Watchers (WATCS) 49999 37.07 (-0.13)          I Saw the TV Glow (ISTVG) 100498 2.81 (-0.26)          The Exorcist: Deceiver (TEXO2) 4000 29.74 (-0.10)          Nightbitch (NTBTC) 29999 9.42 (+0.02)          Train Dreams (TRDRM) 50 6.74 (+0.02)          Goat (GOAT1) 30000 16.07 (-0.06)          The Roses (TROSE) 29999 21.26 (+0.10)          Dragonkeeper (DRGNK) 166 1.00 (0.00)          Lords of War (LRDW2) 150000 14.10 (-0.04)          The Roses (TROSE) 29999 21.26 (+0.10)