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Whisper Numbers: The Twilight Saga set to Eclipse the box office.

Two new films with built-in audiences open mid-week as the box office head into the Independence Day holiday weekend.  The phenomenon The Twilight Saga returns with its third entry Eclipse [TWLI3].   The sequel has already set a new midnight record at $30+ million on its way to a first day total of $68.5 million, which also becomes a box office record for Wednesday.  There was no doubt the vampire vs. werewolf romance would be highly anticipated by “Twihards”.  The question now is whether Eclipse will turn out to be front-loaded.  Summit has given Eclipse the widest release ever at 4416 theaters.  Good word of mouth should drive additional business over the holiday weekend.  Team Edward and Team Jacob together are poised to haul in $95 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $185 million.

Even though Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] will give up the box office crown after two weeks, the Pixar animated sequel should remain the number one option for a broad segment of moviegoers.  The holiday weekend gives them a chance to check out the beloved characters for the last time on screen.  Toy Story 3 looks to bank another $40 million.

M. Night Shylamalan [MNSHY] has adapted the anime series “Avatar: The Last Airbender” into the live-action The Last Airbender [BENDR].  The PG-rated fantasy is riding in on a wave of bad publicity from casting White actors in Asian roles to the late conversion to 3D.  The film is likely to only appeal to families with young children as the terrible reviews may even turn off the hardcore fans.  Swooping into 3169 theaters, The Last Airbender could gather $32 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $42 million.

Adam Sandler [ASAND] and gang have not grown up and moviegoers love them for it.  Grown Ups [GRWUP] should bring families together over the holiday weekend to display around $24 million worth of box office fireworks.

The mild opening of Knight and Day [KNDAY] demonstrated moviegoers are over Tom Cruise [TCRUI].  The action romance may settle for $12 million over the 4-day weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TWLI3, TOYS3, MNSHY, BENDR, ASAND, GRWUP, KNDAY, TCRUI

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, July 1, 2010 @ 02:19 PM 3409 views

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b4bad
Friday, July 2 at 07:33 AM Pacific
Thursday estimates put it to $16M ... source : http://www.deadline.com/2010/07/thursday-box-office-eclipse-25m-the-last-airbender-16m-toy-story-3-8m/



Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Ve (ASPD3) 2 224.54 (0.00)          Astaire (ASTAI) 3 14.69 (-0.04)          Assassination (ASSNT) 5 16.86 (-0.08)          A Special Relationship (ASREL) 555 1.02 (-0.01)          Aladdin 2 (ALAD2) 3 37.63 (-0.03)          The Accountant 2 (ACTN2) 4 23.79 (+0.08)          A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (ABBBJ) 23 38.16 (-0.80)          Saw XI aka Saw 11 (SAW11) 55 31.82 (-0.06)          The Aliens Are Stealing Our Weed (AASOW) 2500 0.53 (-0.03)          The Six Billion Dollar Man (6MILL) 5 21.40 (-0.10)          28 Years Later (28LT3) 3 52.93 (+0.06)          10-31 (1031) 210 0.26 (-0.01)          10-31 (1031) 40 0.26 (-0.01)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 4 244.04 (+0.83)          Avengers 5 (AVNG5) 3 348.41 (+0.40)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 4 255.74 (+1.00)          The Mandalorian & Grogu (SWAR3) 4 216.74 (+0.86)          Avatar 3 (AVAT3) 3 417.11 (-0.57)          Zootopia 2 (ZOOT2) 4 174.68 (-0.58)          Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat (TCATH) 3 37.14 (+0.03)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 6 97.46 (+0.49)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 2 139.56 (+0.08)          David (DAVID) 3 88.69 (+0.10)          Blade (BLAD1) 3 113.92 (-0.11)          Thunderbolts* (TBOLT) 3 172.98 (+0.05)          Tron: Ares (TRON3) 3 81.82 (+0.15)          Blade (BLAD1) 3 113.92 (-0.11)          Mercy (MRCY1) 3 58.32 (-0.05)          Animal Friends (ANFRN) 10 56.62 (+0.55)          The Bad Guys 2 (TBAD2) 3 69.32 (+0.04)          The Naked Gun (NKGUN) 4 35.59 (-0.13)          Superman (SUPRM) 3 191.51 (-0.04)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 49999 3.88 (-0.19)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 49999 3.88 (-0.19)          Jurassic World Event Film (JURA7) 3 249.11 (+0.16)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 49999 3.88 (-0.19)          The Naked Gun (NKGUN) 4 35.59 (-0.13)          How to Train Your Dragon (HTTYD) 3 149.27 (+0.45)          Elio (ELIO) 8 116.66 (+0.84)          Last Breath (LBRTH) 150000 11.05 (-0.05)          Last Breath (LBRTH) 150000 11.05 (-0.05)          Karate Kid (KKID2) 19 102.42 (-1.78)          Mission: Impossible 8 (MISS8) 3 153.39 (-0.44)          M3GAN 2.0 (M3GA2) 3 70.11 (-0.18)          Thunderbolts* (TBOLT) 3 172.98 (+0.05)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 150000 1.19 (+0.06)          Alto Knights aka Wise Guys (WISEG) 4 28.05 (-0.09)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 150000 1.19 (+0.06)          Captain America: Brave New World (CAPA4) 3 202.81 (-0.33)          Mickey 17 aka Mickey7 (MCKY7) 3 119.83 (-0.33)