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Whisper Numbers: G-Force and The Ugly Truth target Harry Potter
While fans gave Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince [HPOT6] the biggest Wednesday opening day ever at $58.2 million, the film did not match the pace set by Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, which held on to the first five days record of $200 million. In fact, the Potter sequel’s $77.8 million weekend barely topped the preceding chapter’s $77.1 million weekend. That fifth film, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, dropped 58% in its second weekend. The much more front-loaded sixth film could drop as much as 60%, which would bring its sophomore session to about $31 million, enough for Half-Blood Prince to hold on to the throne.
G-Force [GFORC] is the latest talking animal movie from Disney. Produced by Jerry Bruckheimer, the PG-rated 3D film features CG animated guinea pigs who are actually secret agents. Zach Galifianakis [ZGALI] and Will Arnett [WARNE] provide human faces for parents bringing their kids. The talking critters combined the Disney brand will bring out the families. How much? Disney’s Beverly Hills Chihuahua opened to $29 million last October. Invading 3697 theaters, G-Force should approach that mark with around $28 million.
Couples looking for the latest romantic comedy could turn to The Ugly Truth [UGLYT]. Katherine Heigl [KHIEG] stars as another single career woman who becomes attracted to a man she is initially repulsed by. Gerard Butler [GBUTL] plays this Mr. Wrong who turns out to be Mr. Right in this relationship fantasy. The Proposal with a similar set-up opened above $30 million, but the Sandra Bullock [SBULL] film was rated PG-13. With an R rating, The Ugly Truth will curtail patronage from teenagers. Sneak previews were well attended last weekend, so $25 million from 2888 locations may be possible for The Ugly Truth.
Orphan [ORPHA] hopes to entice horror fans who have gone hungry since Drag Me to Hell. The evil child storyline is basically The Omen, but with a girl. The R-rated film stars Vera Farmiga [VFARM] and Peter Saarsgard [PSAAR}, both indie favorites rather than box office draws. The Warner Bros. film could bring home $8 million from 2750 theaters.
That’s the whisper from the trading floor.
Tag(s): HPOT6, GFORC, ZGALI, WARNE, UGLYT, GBUTL, SBULL, ORPHA, VFARM
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