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Whisper Numbers: Brave aims for another Pixar hit

The official first weekend of summer comes with three new wide releases lead by Disney’s animated Brave [BRAVE].  Featuring the first female lead character in Pixar’s 13 film history, the PG-rated Brave is about a redheaded princess who prefers archery over corsets, but not much else is clear about the story set in ancient Scotland.  However, the Pixar brand itself is strong enough to attract audiences of all demographics. Even the subpar sequel Cars 2 debuted with $66 million last year.  Their last non-sequel Up banked a $68 million opening in 2009. one would have to go back to 2007’s Ratatouille for an underperformer at $47 million. Shooting into 4165 theaters, Brave may conquer $63 million.

The historical fantasy Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter [ALVH] surmises that our 16th President secretly slayed bloodsuckers during the Civil War. Although the R-rated film is based on a best-selling novel, recent genre mash-ups like Cowboys and Aliens and Jonah Hex have failed to find a broad audience. With no big stars in its cast, Fox’s main marketing point has been the 3D action from the director of Wanted, Timur Bekmambetov [TBEKM]. With a lack of options for young male moviegoers, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could attract enough wallets to score $21 million from 3106 theaters.

Even with direct competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted [MADG3] could still finish second if Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter falters. Madagascar 3 looks to collect another $19 million.

In its third week of release Prometheus [PROME] should finish fourth with another $10 million. Older female moviegoers should keep the musical Rock of Ages [ROAGE] from falling more than 50% to about $8 million. Unfortunately, nothing will stop the R-rated comedy That’s My Boy [TMBOY] from dropping more than 50% to $6 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE] and Keira Knightley [KKNIG] play an unlikely couple in the R-rated romantic comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World [SAFEW]. In order to attract its target audience of sophisticated adults, the unconventional film needs favorable reviews. Unfortunately, the buzz have mostly been negative. Arriving in 1618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World may find just $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BRAVE, ALVH, TBEKM, MADG3, PROME, ROAGE, TMBOY, SCARE, KKNIG, SAFEW

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 21, 2012 @ 04:03 PM 15855 views

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Doppelganger (DPLGN) 150000 64.41 (-0.01)          Escape From New York (ESCNY) 2500 16.28 (+0.29)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 50000 5.21 (+0.02)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 50000 5.21 (+0.02)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 50000 5.21 (+0.02)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 50000 5.21 (+0.02)          Doppelganger (DPLGN) 150000 64.41 (-0.01)          Romy & Michelle 2 (ROMY2) 150000 6.12 (0.00)          Digger (DIGER) 5000 129.78 (0.00)          Digger (DIGER) 5000 129.78 (0.00)          Super Troopers 3 (STRO3) 150000 31.37 (+0.10)          Maddie's Secret (MADDS) 150000 0.32 (-0.01)          Rose of Nevada (ROSNV) 150000 0.42 (-0.01)          Girls Like Girls (GRLGR) 150000 8.57 (-0.04)          Anything But Ghosts (ANYBG) 2000 21.59 (0.00)          Above The Below (ABELW) 50000 5.90 (+0.27)          Flesh of the Gods (FLOTG) 1089 9.09 (-0.11)          The Nightingale (NITNG) 150000 9.78 (+0.18)          The Nightingale (NITNG) 149999 9.78 (+0.18)          The Jetsons (JETSN) 69999 58.63 (-0.82)          Flesh of the Gods (FLOTG) 150000 9.09 (-0.11)          Club Kid (CLUBK) 1 13.23 (+0.49)          Angel and the Badman (ANBAD) 5000 13.96 (+0.29)          Leviticus (LEVIT) 70000 6.94 (+0.07)          Leviticus (LEVIT) 150000 6.94 (+0.07)          The Blair Witch Project 4 (TBWP4) 10000 27.86 (+0.63)          Flesh of the Gods (FLOTG) 100000 9.09 (-0.11)          Incredibles 3 (NCRD3) 149999 390.03 (+0.75)          Dinner With Audrey (DWAUD) 100000 4.43 (+0.22)          Escape From New York (ESCNY) 10000 16.28 (+0.29)          Flesh of the Gods (FLOTG) 149999 9.09 (-0.11)          Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 10000 12.97 (-0.12)          Primetime (PRMTM) 99999 22.99 (-0.42)          Hey Bear (HEYBR) 20000 5.07 (+0.35)          Leviticus (LEVIT) 1 6.94 (+0.07)          Primetime (PRMTM) 75000 22.99 (-0.42)          Dinner With Audrey (DWAUD) 150000 4.43 (+0.22)          Dinner With Audrey (DWAUD) 149999 4.43 (+0.22)          Leviticus (LEVIT) 150000 6.94 (+0.07)          Hey Bear (HEYBR) 60000 5.07 (+0.35)          The Jetsons (JETSN) 1 58.63 (-0.82)          Above The Below (ABELW) 150000 5.90 (+0.27)          Above The Below (ABELW) 149999 5.90 (+0.27)          The Jetsons (JETSN) 15000 58.63 (-0.82)          Primetime (PRMTM) 149999 22.99 (-0.42)          The Jetsons (JETSN) 20000 58.63 (-0.82)          Club Kid (CLUBK) 60000 13.23 (+0.49)          The Jetsons (JETSN) 10000 58.63 (-0.82)          Angel and the Badman (ANBAD) 85000 13.96 (+0.29)          Angel and the Badman (ANBAD) 59999 13.96 (+0.29)