ANNOUNCEMENT: Blockbuster Warrants let you profit from the long-term box office success of the biggest movies.

SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Brave aims for another Pixar hit



The official first weekend of summer comes with three new wide releases lead by Disney’s animated Brave [BRAVE].  Featuring the first female lead character in Pixar’s 13 film history, the PG-rated Brave is about a redheaded princess who prefers archery over corsets, but not much else is clear about the story set in ancient Scotland.  However, the Pixar brand itself is strong enough to attract audiences of all demographics. Even the subpar sequel Cars 2 debuted with $66 million last year.  Their last non-sequel Up banked a $68 million opening in 2009. one would have to go back to 2007’s Ratatouille for an underperformer at $47 million. Shooting into 4165 theaters, Brave may conquer $63 million.

The historical fantasy Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter [ALVH] surmises that our 16th President secretly slayed bloodsuckers during the Civil War. Although the R-rated film is based on a best-selling novel, recent genre mash-ups like Cowboys and Aliens and Jonah Hex have failed to find a broad audience. With no big stars in its cast, Fox’s main marketing point has been the 3D action from the director of Wanted, Timur Bekmambetov [TBEKM]. With a lack of options for young male moviegoers, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could attract enough wallets to score $21 million from 3106 theaters.

Even with direct competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted [MADG3] could still finish second if Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter falters. Madagascar 3 looks to collect another $19 million.

In its third week of release Prometheus [PROME] should finish fourth with another $10 million. Older female moviegoers should keep the musical Rock of Ages [ROAGE] from falling more than 50% to about $8 million. Unfortunately, nothing will stop the R-rated comedy That’s My Boy [TMBOY] from dropping more than 50% to $6 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE] and Keira Knightley [KKNIG] play an unlikely couple in the R-rated romantic comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World [SAFEW]. In order to attract its target audience of sophisticated adults, the unconventional film needs favorable reviews. Unfortunately, the buzz have mostly been negative. Arriving in 1618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World may find just $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BRAVE, ALVH, TBEKM, MADG3, PROME, ROAGE, TMBOY, SCARE, KKNIG, SAFEW

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 21, 2012 @ 04:03 PM        9621 views


Recent Comments

    No recent comments.


Cantor Exchange

@HSXMOVIES on Twitter





    Follow HSX on Twitter!

    Allison Janney (AJANN) 1 29.10 (+0.16)         Tron: Voyage (TRON3) 1000 36.60 (-0.05)         Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 4245 41.20 (+1.33)         Flash Gordon (FLSHG) 53212 17.32 (-0.79)         Arnold Schwarzenegger (ASCHW) 1 32.47 (+0.54)         Peanuts (PENUT) 734 67.40 (-0.45)         Arnold Schwarzenegger (ASCHW) 1 32.47 (+0.54)         Ant-Man (ANTMN) 1000 127.96 (+0.12)         Barbie (BARBI) 97785 11.34 (-2.05)         Jason Bateman (JBATE) 20000 36.86 (-0.04)         Owen Wilson (OWILS) 1 62.90 (-0.53)         Owen Wilson (OWILS) 1 62.90 (-0.53)         Deadpool (DEADP) 100000 11.81 (+0.29)         Barbie (BARBI) 100000 11.34 (-2.05)         I Smile Back (ISMBC) 5000 4.84 (+1.27)         Bill Murray (BMURR) 20000 36.98 (-0.04)         Adrien Brody (ABROD) 20000 10.11 (+0.12)         Darren Aronofsky (DARON) 1 44.00 (-0.67)         The Flash (FLASH) 100000 15.02 (+1.46)         Darren Aronofsky (DARON) 1 44.00 (-0.67)         Foxcatcher (FOXCT) 100000 7.46 (-0.02)         Tomorrowland aka 1952 (1952) 147 108.14 (0.00)         Barbie (BARBI) 100000 11.34 (-2.05)         The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - Openi (SPID5.OW) 65826 95.98 (+0.98)         Freeheld (FRHLD) 100000 7.60 (-0.40)         Endangered Species (ENSPC) 99999 0.01 (0.00)         The Amazing Spider-Man 2 H$95 Pu (SPID5.PU) 20000 2.16 (+0.16)         The Trip to Italy (TRIP2) 100000 0.92 (+0.04)         The Trip to Italy (TRIP2) 100000 0.92 (+0.04)         The Congress (CNGRS) 99999 0.05 (-0.01)         Halloween 3D (HALW3) 99999 0.33 (-0.03)         Sinister 2 (SINI2) 99999 24.77 (-0.09)         Blonde (BONDE) 100000 4.65 (+0.48)         Blonde (BONDE) 100000 4.65 (+0.48)         The Amazing Spider-Man 2 H$95 Pu (SPID5.PU) 20000 2.16 (+0.16)         The Amazing Spider-Man 2 H$95 Ca (SPID5.CA) 20000 2.11 (+0.11)         Robopocalypse (RCLPS) 100000 41.65 (+0.13)         Robopocalypse (RCLPS) 100000 41.65 (+0.13)         The Lost Symbol (LSYMB) 100000 3.37 (+0.75)         Owen Wilson (OWILS) 5000 62.90 (-0.53)         Flash Gordon (FLSHG) 100000 17.32 (-0.79)         The Nest (TNEST) 20000 32.13 (+2.75)         Jason Bateman (JBATE) 10000 36.86 (-0.04)         Step Up: All In (STUP5) 100000 25.29 (+0.05)         Barbie (BARBI) 100000 11.34 (-2.05)         Barbie (BARBI) 100000 11.34 (-2.05)         A Haunted House 2 (AHAU2) 99470 21.82 (-0.99)         Tilda Swinton (TSWIN) 1 37.42 (-0.08)         Emma Watson (EMWAT) 1 53.31 (+0.79)         Sex Tape (SEXTP) 20000 59.41 (-0.06)