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Whisper Numbers: Brave aims for another Pixar hit



The official first weekend of summer comes with three new wide releases lead by Disney’s animated Brave [BRAVE].  Featuring the first female lead character in Pixar’s 13 film history, the PG-rated Brave is about a redheaded princess who prefers archery over corsets, but not much else is clear about the story set in ancient Scotland.  However, the Pixar brand itself is strong enough to attract audiences of all demographics. Even the subpar sequel Cars 2 debuted with $66 million last year.  Their last non-sequel Up banked a $68 million opening in 2009. one would have to go back to 2007’s Ratatouille for an underperformer at $47 million. Shooting into 4165 theaters, Brave may conquer $63 million.

The historical fantasy Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter [ALVH] surmises that our 16th President secretly slayed bloodsuckers during the Civil War. Although the R-rated film is based on a best-selling novel, recent genre mash-ups like Cowboys and Aliens and Jonah Hex have failed to find a broad audience. With no big stars in its cast, Fox’s main marketing point has been the 3D action from the director of Wanted, Timur Bekmambetov [TBEKM]. With a lack of options for young male moviegoers, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could attract enough wallets to score $21 million from 3106 theaters.

Even with direct competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted [MADG3] could still finish second if Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter falters. Madagascar 3 looks to collect another $19 million.

In its third week of release Prometheus [PROME] should finish fourth with another $10 million. Older female moviegoers should keep the musical Rock of Ages [ROAGE] from falling more than 50% to about $8 million. Unfortunately, nothing will stop the R-rated comedy That’s My Boy [TMBOY] from dropping more than 50% to $6 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE] and Keira Knightley [KKNIG] play an unlikely couple in the R-rated romantic comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World [SAFEW]. In order to attract its target audience of sophisticated adults, the unconventional film needs favorable reviews. Unfortunately, the buzz have mostly been negative. Arriving in 1618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World may find just $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BRAVE, ALVH, TBEKM, MADG3, PROME, ROAGE, TMBOY, SCARE, KKNIG, SAFEW

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 21, 2012 @ 04:03 PM        10437 views


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Skull Island (SKULN) 100000 42.45 (+1.10)         The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 10000 19.93 (-0.07)         Home (SMEKD) 15000 51.46 (+1.48)         Penguins of Madagascar - Opening (PMADG.OW) 50000 51.40 (+1.47)         The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 10000 19.93 (-0.07)         Blade Runner 2 (BLAD2) 99999 16.11 (-0.66)         Home (SMEKD) 100000 51.46 (+1.48)         Assassin's Creed (ASCRD) 100000 14.49 (+0.03)         Sandman (SANDM) 53012 41.20 (+2.04)         The Imitation Game (IMITG) 99999 15.62 (-0.72)         Daniel Craig (DCRAI) 2000 71.12 (-0.01)         Toy Story 4 (TOYS4) 100000 210.31 (-2.47)         Night at the Museum: Secret of t (NMUS3) 99999 117.12 (-0.34)         Nicole Kidman (NKIDM) 19997 3.50 (+1.49)         Dark Universe aka Justice League (DARKU) 100000 36.82 (+1.10)         Dark Universe aka Justice League (DARKU) 100000 36.82 (+1.10)         Liana Liberato (LLIBE) 20000 14.55 (-0.08)         The Lobster (LOBST) 51785 0.57 (+0.01)         Scott Mescudi (SMESC) 20000 14.29 (0.00)         Penguins of Madagascar - Opening (PMADG.OW) 45022 51.40 (+1.47)         Dark Universe aka Justice League (DARKU) 100000 36.82 (+1.10)         Lizzy Caplan (LCAPL) 20000 24.25 (-0.16)         Jungle Book: Origins (JNGBO) 73453 32.80 (-0.23)         NBC: State of Affairs (STOFAF) 20000 13.11 (-0.03)         Honeymoon (HNYMN) 1 0.02 (0.00)         Zoolander 2 (ZOOL2) 78080 32.90 (+1.16)         Jurassic World (JURA4) 11807 181.02 (+1.47)         Honeymoon (HNYMN) 100000 0.02 (0.00)         Trumbo (TRMBO) 100000 12.44 (-0.17)         Chris Kattan (CKATT) 30 1.42 (+0.03)         Ellen Burstyn (EBURS) 20000 19.25 (+0.13)         The Opening Weekend Fund (OPENR) 10000 20.12 (-0.15)         Finding Dory aka Finding Nemo 2 (NEMO2) 90644 166.03 (+0.02)         The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Par (HGAM3) 1 310.72 (-1.95)         Jessabelle (JESAB) 100000 0.05 (-0.02)         Carmen Ejogo (CEJOG) 19900 31.29 (+0.89)         Exodus: Gods and Kings (EXODU) 25000 92.81 (-0.78)         The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 10000 19.93 (-0.07)         Julie Delpy (JDLPY) 30 1.41 (-0.01)         13 Hours (13HRS) 100000 28.15 (-1.02)         The Remake Fund (DJAVU) 10000 48.29 (+0.05)         Horrible Bosses 2 - Opening Week (HBOS2.OW) 84256 39.48 (-0.01)         Getting to Happy (GTHAP) 100000 0.04 (+0.03)         David Oyelowo (DOYEL) 20000 100.93 (0.00)         Jurassic World (JURA4) 54208 181.02 (+1.47)         David Duchovny (DDUCH) 20 1.37 (0.00)         The Stand (STAND) 100000 29.50 (+1.39)         Disney Studio Fund (DISNX) 10000 22.56 (-0.22)         Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 10101 30.27 (+5.31)         A Perfect Day (APDAY) 99000 7.91 (+2.78)