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Whisper Numbers: Brave aims for another Pixar hit



The official first weekend of summer comes with three new wide releases lead by Disney’s animated Brave [BRAVE].  Featuring the first female lead character in Pixar’s 13 film history, the PG-rated Brave is about a redheaded princess who prefers archery over corsets, but not much else is clear about the story set in ancient Scotland.  However, the Pixar brand itself is strong enough to attract audiences of all demographics. Even the subpar sequel Cars 2 debuted with $66 million last year.  Their last non-sequel Up banked a $68 million opening in 2009. one would have to go back to 2007’s Ratatouille for an underperformer at $47 million. Shooting into 4165 theaters, Brave may conquer $63 million.

The historical fantasy Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter [ALVH] surmises that our 16th President secretly slayed bloodsuckers during the Civil War. Although the R-rated film is based on a best-selling novel, recent genre mash-ups like Cowboys and Aliens and Jonah Hex have failed to find a broad audience. With no big stars in its cast, Fox’s main marketing point has been the 3D action from the director of Wanted, Timur Bekmambetov [TBEKM]. With a lack of options for young male moviegoers, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could attract enough wallets to score $21 million from 3106 theaters.

Even with direct competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted [MADG3] could still finish second if Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter falters. Madagascar 3 looks to collect another $19 million.

In its third week of release Prometheus [PROME] should finish fourth with another $10 million. Older female moviegoers should keep the musical Rock of Ages [ROAGE] from falling more than 50% to about $8 million. Unfortunately, nothing will stop the R-rated comedy That’s My Boy [TMBOY] from dropping more than 50% to $6 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE] and Keira Knightley [KKNIG] play an unlikely couple in the R-rated romantic comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World [SAFEW]. In order to attract its target audience of sophisticated adults, the unconventional film needs favorable reviews. Unfortunately, the buzz have mostly been negative. Arriving in 1618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World may find just $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BRAVE, ALVH, TBEKM, MADG3, PROME, ROAGE, TMBOY, SCARE, KKNIG, SAFEW

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 21, 2012 @ 04:03 PM        12666 views


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Ben-Hur (BNHUR) 77234 26.85 (-0.50)         War Dogs (ARMDU) 100000 35.83 (+0.54)         War Dogs (ARMDU) 100000 35.83 (+0.54)         Rock that Body (THBDY) 100000 43.86 (+1.46)         Pete's Dragon (PDRGN) 100000 60.65 (-0.11)         Pete's Dragon (PDRGN) 100000 60.65 (-0.11)         Suicide Squad (SUICD) 100000 289.40 (-1.90)         Kurt Russell (KRUSS) 20000 72.32 (0.00)         War Dogs (ARMDU) 100000 35.83 (+0.54)         Pete's Dragon (PDRGN) 100000 60.65 (-0.11)         John Malkovich (JMALK) 20000 68.66 (-0.93)         Sausage Party (SAUSG) 100000 86.51 (+1.57)         Inferno (NFERN) 2909 77.13 (-0.42)         Kate Hudson (KHUDS) 20000 32.94 (0.00)         Annabelle 2 (ANAB2) 1580 37.63 (0.00)         The Fall Guy (FALGY) 1 3.25 (+1.06)         Inferno (NFERN) 32909 77.13 (-0.42)         Morgan Freeman (MFREE) 44 49.29 (+0.21)         Morgan Freeman (MFREE) 10000 49.29 (+0.21)         Wild Oats (WOATS) 100000 1.17 (+0.82)         Crooked House (CRKDH) 100000 2.27 (-1.53)         Wild Oats (WOATS) 100000 1.17 (+0.82)         The Angel Makers aka The Poisone (POISN) 100000 2.15 (-0.58)         Len and Company (LENCO) 100 0.10 (-0.12)         The Secret Life of Pets 2 (PETS2) 100000 211.03 (-2.13)         Suicide Squad (SUICD) 100000 289.40 (-1.90)         Lights Out 2 (LITS2) 100000 35.77 (-1.16)         Cafe Society (CFSCT) 100000 9.50 (+0.12)         Fantastic Beasts and Where to Fi (FBSTS) 77 259.47 (+0.36)         Rodrigo Santoro (RSANT) 589 34.99 (+0.09)         War Dogs (ARMDU) 100000 35.83 (+0.54)         Rodrigo Santoro (RSANT) 3000 34.99 (+0.09)         Cafe Society (CFSCT) 32500 9.50 (+0.12)         Complete Unknown (CUNKN) 100000 1.03 (+0.02)         Lights Out 2 (LITS2) 1046 35.77 (-1.16)         Independence Day: Resurgence $10 (IDAY2.BW) 20000 4.05 (-0.03)         Complete Unknown (CUNKN) 100000 1.03 (+0.02)         Lights Out 2 (LITS2) 200 35.77 (-1.16)         Suicide Squad (SUICD) 250 289.40 (-1.90)         Suicide Squad (SUICD) 799 289.40 (-1.90)         Star Trek 4 (TREK4) 1000 98.35 (-0.90)         Dark Universe aka Justice League (DARKU) 1000 34.66 (-0.73)         Lights Out 2 (LITS2) 100000 35.77 (-1.16)         Home Again (HMAGN) 1000 12.19 (+0.45)         Lights Out 2 (LITS2) 1000 35.77 (-1.16)         Kirsten Dunst (KDUNS) 20000 1.77 (0.00)         Lights Out 2 (LITS2) 100000 35.77 (-1.16)         Jane Levy (JLEVY) 20000 22.72 (+0.48)         Lights Out 2 (LITS2) 100000 35.77 (-1.16)         Julie Delpy (JDLPY) 20000 1.91 (-0.01)