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Whisper Numbers: Brave aims for another Pixar hit



The official first weekend of summer comes with three new wide releases lead by Disney’s animated Brave [BRAVE].  Featuring the first female lead character in Pixar’s 13 film history, the PG-rated Brave is about a redheaded princess who prefers archery over corsets, but not much else is clear about the story set in ancient Scotland.  However, the Pixar brand itself is strong enough to attract audiences of all demographics. Even the subpar sequel Cars 2 debuted with $66 million last year.  Their last non-sequel Up banked a $68 million opening in 2009. one would have to go back to 2007’s Ratatouille for an underperformer at $47 million. Shooting into 4165 theaters, Brave may conquer $63 million.

The historical fantasy Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter [ALVH] surmises that our 16th President secretly slayed bloodsuckers during the Civil War. Although the R-rated film is based on a best-selling novel, recent genre mash-ups like Cowboys and Aliens and Jonah Hex have failed to find a broad audience. With no big stars in its cast, Fox’s main marketing point has been the 3D action from the director of Wanted, Timur Bekmambetov [TBEKM]. With a lack of options for young male moviegoers, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could attract enough wallets to score $21 million from 3106 theaters.

Even with direct competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted [MADG3] could still finish second if Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter falters. Madagascar 3 looks to collect another $19 million.

In its third week of release Prometheus [PROME] should finish fourth with another $10 million. Older female moviegoers should keep the musical Rock of Ages [ROAGE] from falling more than 50% to about $8 million. Unfortunately, nothing will stop the R-rated comedy That’s My Boy [TMBOY] from dropping more than 50% to $6 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE] and Keira Knightley [KKNIG] play an unlikely couple in the R-rated romantic comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World [SAFEW]. In order to attract its target audience of sophisticated adults, the unconventional film needs favorable reviews. Unfortunately, the buzz have mostly been negative. Arriving in 1618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World may find just $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BRAVE, ALVH, TBEKM, MADG3, PROME, ROAGE, TMBOY, SCARE, KKNIG, SAFEW

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 21, 2012 @ 04:03 PM        10658 views


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Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 100000 25.28 (+1.71)         Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead M (PIRT5) 100000 103.09 (+0.19)         Captive (CPTIV) 7777 20.66 (+1.43)         Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 99999 25.28 (+1.71)         Dirty Weekend (DRTYW) 5000 7.04 (+2.07)         Spark (SPARK) 100000 12.96 (-1.34)         Spark (SPARK) 100000 12.96 (-1.34)         Toy Story 4 (TOYS4) 1 214.69 (-0.16)         Puss In Boots 2 (PUSS2) 7777 42.68 (+1.68)         Jem and the Holograms (JEMHG) 99222 29.45 (+1.84)         Dirty Weekend (DRTYW) 99999 7.04 (+2.07)         Rings aka The Ring 3 (RING3) 92222 25.55 (+2.54)         Southpaw (SUPAW) 99999 30.90 (+3.82)         Captain Underpants (CUNDP) 100000 30.74 (-0.10)         Star Wars: Episode VIII (STAR8) 1 288.27 (+0.08)         Despicable Me 3 (DESM3) 1 127.83 (-0.94)         Jem and the Holograms (JEMHG) 99999 29.45 (+1.84)         Captive (CPTIV) 100000 20.66 (+1.43)         Spark (SPARK) 100000 12.96 (-1.34)         Larrikins (LARIK) 10000 40.25 (+0.25)         Larrikins (LARIK) 100000 40.25 (+0.25)         Spark (SPARK) 100000 12.96 (-1.34)         Dope (DOPE) 100000 16.79 (-0.66)         Story of Your Life (SOYLF) 99999 23.34 (-0.18)         Robotech (RTECH) 2000 33.84 (-1.54)         Star Wars: Rogue One (SW16) 10 235.26 (-0.26)         Nerve (NERVE) 99999 21.59 (-1.11)         Dirty Weekend (DRTYW) 100000 7.04 (+2.07)         The Divergent Series: Allegiant (DVRG3) 100000 126.35 (+1.22)         The Divergent Series: Allegiant (DVRG4) 8000 116.28 (+0.98)         Dope (DOPE) 100000 16.79 (-0.66)         Southpaw (SUPAW) 100000 30.90 (+3.82)         Afrosamurai (AFROS) 100000 0.06 (+0.05)         Captive (CPTIV) 100000 20.66 (+1.43)         Larrikins (LARIK) 100000 40.25 (+0.25)         Star Wars: The Force Awakens (STAR7) 30 340.12 (-0.73)         Dirty Weekend (DRTYW) 100000 7.04 (+2.07)         The Bourne 5 (BORN5) 100000 82.54 (-0.23)         Southpaw (SUPAW) 885 30.90 (+3.82)         Blazing Samurai (BLAZS) 100000 28.03 (-0.91)         Genius (GENUS) 100000 0.27 (+0.03)         King Arthur (KARTH) 100000 57.61 (0.00)         The Transporter Refueled (TRNS4) 1 16.72 (-0.03)         Ghostbusters (GHST3) 100000 72.58 (+0.06)         Ice Age 5 (ICEA5) 100000 50.53 (+0.25)         Tarzan (TARZN) 100000 47.51 (0.00)         Don Cheadle (DCHEA) 20000 147.60 (+0.57)         Don Cheadle (DCHEA) 20000 147.60 (+0.57)         6 Miranda Drive (6MRDR) 15000 4.95 (+0.04)         Ted 2 (TED2) 122 130.90 (-0.37)