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Whisper Numbers: Brave aims for another Pixar hit



The official first weekend of summer comes with three new wide releases lead by Disney’s animated Brave [BRAVE].  Featuring the first female lead character in Pixar’s 13 film history, the PG-rated Brave is about a redheaded princess who prefers archery over corsets, but not much else is clear about the story set in ancient Scotland.  However, the Pixar brand itself is strong enough to attract audiences of all demographics. Even the subpar sequel Cars 2 debuted with $66 million last year.  Their last non-sequel Up banked a $68 million opening in 2009. one would have to go back to 2007’s Ratatouille for an underperformer at $47 million. Shooting into 4165 theaters, Brave may conquer $63 million.

The historical fantasy Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter [ALVH] surmises that our 16th President secretly slayed bloodsuckers during the Civil War. Although the R-rated film is based on a best-selling novel, recent genre mash-ups like Cowboys and Aliens and Jonah Hex have failed to find a broad audience. With no big stars in its cast, Fox’s main marketing point has been the 3D action from the director of Wanted, Timur Bekmambetov [TBEKM]. With a lack of options for young male moviegoers, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could attract enough wallets to score $21 million from 3106 theaters.

Even with direct competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted [MADG3] could still finish second if Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter falters. Madagascar 3 looks to collect another $19 million.

In its third week of release Prometheus [PROME] should finish fourth with another $10 million. Older female moviegoers should keep the musical Rock of Ages [ROAGE] from falling more than 50% to about $8 million. Unfortunately, nothing will stop the R-rated comedy That’s My Boy [TMBOY] from dropping more than 50% to $6 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE] and Keira Knightley [KKNIG] play an unlikely couple in the R-rated romantic comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World [SAFEW]. In order to attract its target audience of sophisticated adults, the unconventional film needs favorable reviews. Unfortunately, the buzz have mostly been negative. Arriving in 1618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World may find just $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BRAVE, ALVH, TBEKM, MADG3, PROME, ROAGE, TMBOY, SCARE, KKNIG, SAFEW

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 21, 2012 @ 04:03 PM        12481 views


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Nine Lives H$10 Call (9LIVS.CA) 80000 2.00 (0.00)         Suicide Squad H$120 Call (SUICD.CA) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Untitled Woody Allen Summer Proj (WASP6) 100000 9.49 (+1.49)         Nine Lives H$10 Put (9LIVS.PU) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Nine Lives (9LIVS) 51 22.96 (-0.37)         Nine Lives - Opening Weekend (9LIVS.OW) 50000 10.00 (0.00)         Star Trek Beyond (TREK3) 55000 152.75 (-3.07)         My Best Friend's Wedding (MYBFW) 100000 2.00 (0.00)         Suicide Squad H$120 Put (SUICD.PU) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Nine Lives H$10 Call (9LIVS.CA) 100000 2.00 (0.00)         Suicide Squad H$120 Call (SUICD.CA) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Thomas Middleditch (TMIDD) 20000 19.31 (-0.26)         Nine Lives H$10 Call (9LIVS.CA) 100000 2.00 (0.00)         Untitled Woody Allen Summer Proj (WASP6) 60000 9.49 (+1.49)         Lionsgate Studio Fund (LGFX) 8 99.33 (+1.16)         Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (GOTG2) 13591 296.74 (+1.12)         Margot Robbie (MROBB) 72 63.72 (+1.75)         Untitled Woody Allen Summer Proj (WASP6) 1 9.49 (+1.49)         Suicide Squad - Opening Weekend (SUICD.OW) 100000 120.00 (0.00)         Disney Studio Fund (DISNX) 5 129.34 (+0.86)         Nine Lives H$10 Call (9LIVS.CA) 100000 2.00 (0.00)         Strong Female Lead Fund (CHICK) 2 41.66 (+0.14)         Saw: Legacy aka Saw 8 (SAW8) 100000 39.18 (+5.29)         Shu Qi (SHUQI) 20000 0.59 (-0.13)         Nine Lives H$10 Put (9LIVS.PU) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         The British Fund (BRITS) 6 68.34 (+0.74)         Suicide Squad H$120 Put (SUICD.PU) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         The Asian Fund (ASIAN) 5 32.40 (+0.32)         Nine Lives H$10 Call (9LIVS.CA) 100000 2.00 (0.00)         Suicide Squad - Opening Weekend (SUICD.OW) 100000 120.00 (0.00)         Kong: Skull Island (SKULN) 19918 123.01 (+1.72)         Nine Lives - Opening Weekend (9LIVS.OW) 100000 10.00 (0.00)         Rob Reiner (RREIN) 49 27.84 (+1.06)         Matt Damon (MDAMO) 5 129.50 (0.00)         The Legend of Tarzan $110M Block (TARZN.BW) 20000 9.29 (+0.86)         Leonardo DiCaprio (LDCAP) 5 131.57 (-0.57)         The Angry Birds Movie $100M Bloc (ANGRB.BW) 20000 6.86 (-0.22)         Untitled Woody Allen Summer Proj (WASP6) 1000 9.49 (+1.49)         Suicide Squad H$120 Call (SUICD.CA) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Untitled Woody Allen Summer Proj (WASP6) 100000 9.49 (+1.49)         Nine Lives H$10 Put (9LIVS.PU) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Nine Lives H$10 Put (9LIVS.PU) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Ralph Fiennes (RFIEN) 30 59.66 (+1.18)         Charlize Theron (CTHER) 3 70.53 (-0.13)         Suicide Squad H$120 Put (SUICD.PU) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Nine Lives - Opening Weekend (9LIVS.OW) 100000 10.00 (0.00)         Cary Fukunaga (CFUKU) 6 6.96 (-0.04)         Suicide Squad H$120 Call (SUICD.CA) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Nine Lives H$10 Call (9LIVS.CA) 100000 2.00 (0.00)         Untitled Woody Allen Summer Proj (WASP6) 100000 9.49 (+1.49)