Although its opening weekend topped its predecessor The Dark Knight, The Dark Knight Rises [BATM3] had been expected to debut much higher if not for the mass shooting at a midnight showing in Colorado. Will those moviegoers who forego the theaters due to the tragedy return during the second weekend, or are they still skittish about going to the movies? As the final chapter in Christopher Nolan’s [CNOLA] Batman trilogy, The Dark Knight Rises is a must-see for fans and enjoys phenomenon word of mouth. The Dark Knight declined 52% to $75.2 million in 2008. The Dark Knight Rises may be able to hold 50% for a second weekend tally of $80 million.
Fox’s R-rated comedy The Watch [NEIBW] appears to be the wrong movie at the wrong time. The original title Neighborhood Watch was dropped due to the controversial shooting death by an overzealous surburbanite on neighborhood watch. Even with the starpower of Ben Stiller [BSTIL], Vince Vaughn [VVAUG] and Jonah Hill [JHILL], the trailers have not been funny, not to mention the alien invasion plot plays like a poor American version of the British hit Attack of the Block. Debuting in 3168 theaters, The Watch may uncover $21 million.
Ice Age: Continental Drift [ICEA4] suffered a huge drop in its second weekend as families stayed home due to anxiety from the tragedy. The animated sequel should bounce back and recover $13 million.
The fourth entry in the dance film franchise, Step Up: Revolution [STUP4] is the first to be distributed by Summit rather than Disney. Channing Tatum has long left the series, leaving a cast of unknowns culled from various dance competition TV shows to perform in the PG-13 rated film. Step Up 3D earned $15.8 million in August 2010, but 3D is no longer a novelty today. The same could be said about the dance genre in general, whose popularity has waned. Step Up: Revolution may flash mob its way to $11.5 million at 2568 locations.
That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.
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