SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Toy Story 3

This weekend Pixar delivers its annual instant classic animated feature and this year Pixar goes back to the franchise that started it all.  After enduring a very public battle between Disney and Pixar over the rights to produce the sequel, Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] arrives more than a decade behind the previous installment Toy Story 2.  Thankfully, the two companies came together to the relief of everyone.  Toy Story 3 finds Woody, Buzz and the rest of Andy’s toys dropped off at a day care center where they encounter new characters while trying to find their way home.  As expected, reviews have been outstanding on the G-rated film that wraps up the trilogy.  The series has broad demographic appeal from everyone who has grown up with the beloved characters.   Opening 4028 theaters with the added boost of 3D screens, Toy Story 3 could launch to $110 million and beyond.

Last weekend’s big winner The Karate Kid [KFKID] should more than hold its own against the new competition.  Moviegoers have responded overwhelmingly positive to the remake. The Karate Kid could wear down just 30% from its debut and finish second at around $37 million.

On the other hand, the feature adaptation of The A-Team [ATEAM] was met with a lukewarm reception.  The male-oriented actioner is likely to fall close to 50% to $13 million for its second outing. 

The weekend’s other new wide release is the western Jonah Hex [JOHEX] based on a comic you have never heard of.  Josh Brolin [JBROL] stars as an avenging cowboy with supernatural powers.  Megan Fox [MEFOX] co-star in the PG-13 rated film to up its appeal with young males.  Even though the marketing campaign had a late start, Warner Bros. has advertised heavily on sporting events.  Unfortunately, advance buzz has been low and mostly negative.  Jonah Hex may have to settle for a score around $10 million from 2825 theaters.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TOYS3, KFKID, ATEAM, JOHEX, JBROL, MEFOX

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 17, 2010 @ 03:01 PM 3063 views

Recent Comments

bigbrain28
Friday, June 18 at 12:10 PM Pacific
I disagree, and predict fall-off for KFKID to be closer to 60%
Afammojoe
Friday, June 18 at 16:04 PM Pacific
jonah hex will do 25-30



The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 8500 94.12 (+0.01)          The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 13500 94.12 (+0.01)          The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 5000 94.12 (+0.01)          The Wrong Girl (TWRNG) 100 8.45 (0.00)          Project Hail Mary $260M Blockbus (PRJHM.BW) 18836 5.71 (+0.05)          Lee Cronin's The Mummy (TMUMY) 100 38.74 (0.00)          The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PRAD2) 100 209.57 (0.00)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 100 1.21 (0.00)          Michael (MJACK) 100 187.97 (-0.16)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 149999 422.10 (-1.01)          Mile End Kicks (MILEK) 100 0.49 (0.00)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 400 442.03 (0.00)          Lorne (LORNE) 100 1.37 (0.00)          A Place In Hell (APHEL) 25000 6.81 (-0.90)          Metal Gear Solid (MTLGR) 25000 14.73 (+0.78)          I Swear (ISWEA) 100 3.46 (0.00)          A Head Full of Ghosts (AHFOG) 25000 6.88 (+0.36)          Cold Pursuit 2 (CLDP2) 100 0.53 (0.00)          A Place In Hell (APHEL) 75000 6.81 (-0.90)          Alita: Battle Angel 2 (ALIT2) 100 29.81 (0.00)          Project Hail Mary $260M Blockbus (PRJHM.BW) 25000 5.71 (+0.05)          Highlander (HIGHL) 8559 39.05 (0.00)          Gladys aka Weapons prequel (WEPN2) 242 57.25 (-0.04)          Nicolas Cage (NCAGE) 1 17.74 (+0.30)          Liev Schreiber (LSCHR) 25000 20.64 (+0.37)          Tim Heidecker (THEID) 25000 5.98 (+0.05)          Nicolas Cage (NCAGE) 25000 17.74 (+0.30)          Stephen Graham (SGRAH) 25000 87.96 (-0.25)          Daniel Kaluuya (DKALU) 25000 100.44 (+0.51)          Renny Harlin (RHARL) 25000 16.31 (+0.18)          Renny Harlin (RHARL) 20000 16.31 (+0.18)          Nick Frost (NFROS) 25000 57.54 (+0.16)          Jenna Ortega (JORTE) 25000 79.56 (-0.50)          Amy Adams (AMADA) 25000 103.46 (-1.00)          Amy Adams (AMADA) 25000 103.46 (-1.00)          Klara and the Sun (KLARA) 150000 18.57 (-0.40)          Ice Cream Man (ICREM) 25000 14.23 (+0.09)          Insidious: Out of the Further (NSID6) 150000 40.81 (+0.13)          Sense and Sensibility (SNSNS) 150000 15.75 (-0.35)          Sense and Sensibility (SNSNS) 150000 15.75 (-0.35)          Helldivers (HELDV) 150000 107.57 (+0.33)          Idiots aka The Shitheads (SHTHD) 150000 5.20 (-0.27)          Idiots aka The Shitheads (SHTHD) 150000 5.20 (-0.27)          Idiots aka The Shitheads (SHTHD) 150000 5.20 (-0.27)          Idiots aka The Shitheads (SHTHD) 150000 5.20 (-0.27)          Jumanji: Open World (JUMN3) 150000 162.30 (+0.63)          Wasteman (WASTE) 150000 0.38 (0.00)          Wasteman (WASTE) 150000 0.38 (0.00)          Sense and Sensibility (SNSNS) 150000 15.75 (-0.35)          Sense and Sensibility (SNSNS) 150000 15.75 (-0.35)