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Whisper Numbers: Movies for Grown Ups take on a Toy Story.



A couple of new wide releases will test the drawing power of its leading stars this weekend.  However, both of the adult-oriented films are unlikely to challenge the reigning champion, Toy Story 3 [TOYS3].  The Pixar animated film has been universally praised and loved by audiences of all ages.  Last year, Up went down 35% in its second weekend.  As a sequel, Toy Story 3 is likely to be more front-loaded and decline around 45%.  That would bring in roughly $60 million, which should be more than enough to hold back the two new entrants to the box office.

After failing with the more serious Funny People last year, Adam Sandler [ASAND] is back to his old shtick in Grown Ups [GRWUP] and this time he’s brought his old buddies from ‘Saturday Night Live’ with Kevin James [KJAME] standing in for Chris Farley.  The PG-13 rated comedy has the usual sophomoric humor and formulaic storyline that appeals to middle of the road moviegoers.   Sandler consistently opens his movies to $40 million with his last Sony effort You Don’t Mess with the Zohan at $38.5 million.  Grown Ups should come in the same territory at around $39 million from 3534 theaters.

Knight & Day [KNDAY] finds Tom Cruise [TCRUI] embracing his real life persona by playing a character audiences won’t be sure if is a real psychotic or just a secret agent acting crazy.  Former Charlie’s Angels Cameron Diaz [CDIAZ] serves as a perfect comedic and romantic foil in a thriller filled with over the top action. However, the PG-13 rated film has not been tracking well, so Fox pushed up the release date to Wednesday where it earned a soft $3.8 million.  Since its target demographics are not free on weekdays, business should pick up during the weekend.  Opening in 3098 theaters, Knight & Day may sweep away $26 million from Friday to Sunday.
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The Karate Kid [KFKID] got roughed up a bit by Toy Story 3, but should bounce back up with about $16 million in its third weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): TOYS3, ASAND, GRWUP, KJAME, KNDAY, TCRUI, CDIAZ, KFKID

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 24, 2010 @ 04:15 PM        1378 views


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Splinter Cell (SCELL) 600 10.12 (+2.24)         Wicked (WICKD) 30000 28.43 (+4.62)         The Jetsons (JETSN) 100 25.39 (+2.96)         Foxcatcher (FOXCT) 15 11.79 (0.00)         Risk (RISK) 62103 0.18 (0.00)         Cate Blanchett (CBLAN) 100 112.90 (+0.85)         Rings aka The Ring 3 (RING3) 100000 19.34 (+2.42)         Disney Studio Fund (DISNX) 200 26.38 (+0.04)         Warner Bros. Studio Fund (WBROX) 100 17.81 (+0.20)         Kal Penn (KPENN) 20000 24.33 (-0.96)         Finding Dory aka Finding Nemo 2 (NEMO2) 2069 185.26 (-0.25)         True Story (TRUES) 100000 5.94 (+0.70)         Based on a True Story Fund (TRUE) 1000 32.61 (+0.04)         Jean-Pierre Jeunet (JJEUN) 20000 9.94 (+0.08)         John Goodman (JGOOD) 1000 121.93 (-0.30)         True Story (TRUES) 100000 5.94 (+0.70)         Grandma (GRNMA) 100000 6.23 (+1.88)         Gnomeo & Juliet: Sherlock Gnomes (GNOM2) 100000 9.87 (+0.69)         The Boys (TBOYS) 800 0.13 (0.00)         By Way of Helena (BWOHL) 100000 6.48 (+0.53)         Ken Jeong (KJEON) 20000 108.19 (-0.28)         Ghostbusters (GHST3) 2500 54.01 (+2.84)         Atlantis Rising (ATLRS) 75000 0.07 (+0.01)         Gnomeo & Juliet: Sherlock Gnomes (GNOM2) 100000 9.87 (+0.69)         The Assassin (ASASN) 5000 0.11 (+0.03)         By Way of Helena (BWOHL) 100000 6.48 (+0.53)         Richard Pryor (PRYOR) 100000 3.91 (+0.87)         Ethan Hawke (EHAWK) 20000 24.72 (-0.24)         Strange Magic (STMGC) 100000 13.50 (+0.44)         Welcome to Me (WLCME) 100000 1.17 (-0.03)         Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates (MDNWD) 5000 23.76 (-2.25)         Untitled Star Wars (SW16) 990 215.42 (-0.16)         Grandma (GRNMA) 99331 6.23 (+1.88)         Richard Pryor (PRYOR) 100000 3.91 (+0.87)         Chronicle 2 (CHRN2) 4000 6.75 (+2.21)         Britt Robertson (BROBE) 20000 15.94 (-0.08)         Welcome to Me (WLCME) 100000 1.17 (-0.03)         Strange Magic (STMGC) 100000 13.50 (+0.44)         Uncharted (UNCHT) 100000 31.93 (+0.20)         Uncharted (UNCHT) 100000 31.93 (+0.20)         Luke Wilson (LWILS) 20000 9.66 (+0.15)         Indiana Jones 5 (INDI5) 2000 47.61 (+1.03)         Home Sweet Hell (NOHEL) 100000 1.01 (-0.02)         Kickboxer (KBOXR) 100000 18.18 (-0.03)         Kickboxer (KBOXR) 100000 18.18 (-0.03)         Untitled Cold War Thriller (CLDWR) 42731 70.97 (0.00)         Lowriders (LOWRD) 100000 33.32 (+0.26)         George Clooney (GCLOO) 100 87.32 (0.00)         Lowriders (LOWRD) 100000 33.32 (+0.26)         Black or White (BLKWH) 100000 15.53 (+0.22)