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Whisper Numbers: Movies for Grown Ups take on a Toy Story.

A couple of new wide releases will test the drawing power of its leading stars this weekend.  However, both of the adult-oriented films are unlikely to challenge the reigning champion, Toy Story 3 [TOYS3].  The Pixar animated film has been universally praised and loved by audiences of all ages.  Last year, Up went down 35% in its second weekend.  As a sequel, Toy Story 3 is likely to be more front-loaded and decline around 45%.  That would bring in roughly $60 million, which should be more than enough to hold back the two new entrants to the box office.

After failing with the more serious Funny People last year, Adam Sandler [ASAND] is back to his old shtick in Grown Ups [GRWUP] and this time he’s brought his old buddies from ‘Saturday Night Live’ with Kevin James [KJAME] standing in for Chris Farley.  The PG-13 rated comedy has the usual sophomoric humor and formulaic storyline that appeals to middle of the road moviegoers.   Sandler consistently opens his movies to $40 million with his last Sony effort You Don’t Mess with the Zohan at $38.5 million.  Grown Ups should come in the same territory at around $39 million from 3534 theaters.

Knight & Day [KNDAY] finds Tom Cruise [TCRUI] embracing his real life persona by playing a character audiences won’t be sure if is a real psychotic or just a secret agent acting crazy.  Former Charlie’s Angels Cameron Diaz [CDIAZ] serves as a perfect comedic and romantic foil in a thriller filled with over the top action. However, the PG-13 rated film has not been tracking well, so Fox pushed up the release date to Wednesday where it earned a soft $3.8 million.  Since its target demographics are not free on weekdays, business should pick up during the weekend.  Opening in 3098 theaters, Knight & Day may sweep away $26 million from Friday to Sunday.

The Karate Kid [KFKID] got roughed up a bit by Toy Story 3, but should bounce back up with about $16 million in its third weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.


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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 24, 2010 @ 04:15 PM        1441 views

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