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Whisper Numbers: Movies for Grown Ups take on a Toy Story.



A couple of new wide releases will test the drawing power of its leading stars this weekend.  However, both of the adult-oriented films are unlikely to challenge the reigning champion, Toy Story 3 [TOYS3].  The Pixar animated film has been universally praised and loved by audiences of all ages.  Last year, Up went down 35% in its second weekend.  As a sequel, Toy Story 3 is likely to be more front-loaded and decline around 45%.  That would bring in roughly $60 million, which should be more than enough to hold back the two new entrants to the box office.

After failing with the more serious Funny People last year, Adam Sandler [ASAND] is back to his old shtick in Grown Ups [GRWUP] and this time he’s brought his old buddies from ‘Saturday Night Live’ with Kevin James [KJAME] standing in for Chris Farley.  The PG-13 rated comedy has the usual sophomoric humor and formulaic storyline that appeals to middle of the road moviegoers.   Sandler consistently opens his movies to $40 million with his last Sony effort You Don’t Mess with the Zohan at $38.5 million.  Grown Ups should come in the same territory at around $39 million from 3534 theaters.

Knight & Day [KNDAY] finds Tom Cruise [TCRUI] embracing his real life persona by playing a character audiences won’t be sure if is a real psychotic or just a secret agent acting crazy.  Former Charlie’s Angels Cameron Diaz [CDIAZ] serves as a perfect comedic and romantic foil in a thriller filled with over the top action. However, the PG-13 rated film has not been tracking well, so Fox pushed up the release date to Wednesday where it earned a soft $3.8 million.  Since its target demographics are not free on weekdays, business should pick up during the weekend.  Opening in 3098 theaters, Knight & Day may sweep away $26 million from Friday to Sunday.
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The Karate Kid [KFKID] got roughed up a bit by Toy Story 3, but should bounce back up with about $16 million in its third weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): TOYS3, ASAND, GRWUP, KJAME, KNDAY, TCRUI, CDIAZ, KFKID

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 24, 2010 @ 04:15 PM        1424 views


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Mena (MENA) 100000 35.00 (0.00)         Custody (CUSTD) 100000 7.84 (+0.15)         A Cure for Wellness aka Remedy (ACFWL) 1 18.64 (-0.16)         Toy Story 4 (TOYS4) 19 212.02 (-0.16)         The Layover (LAYOV) 1 7.47 (-0.53)         The Ballad of Richard Jewell (RJEWE) 500 24.66 (-0.26)         Mena (MENA) 5000 35.00 (0.00)         Mena (MENA) 100000 35.00 (0.00)         Mena (MENA) 5000 35.00 (0.00)         Mena (MENA) 100 35.00 (0.00)         Hot Pursuit (DMWTX) 40581 54.92 (+0.12)         San Andreas (SANDR) 10000 123.61 (-0.83)         Gemma Bovery (GBVRY) 100000 1.68 (-0.32)         The Emperor's Children (EMPCH) 99990 0.67 (-0.09)         Mena (MENA) 100000 35.00 (0.00)         Mena (MENA) 100000 35.00 (0.00)         Zipper (ZIPER) 99990 1.86 (-0.04)         Mena (MENA) 100000 35.00 (0.00)         Furious 7 $350M Blockbuster Warr (FAST7.BW) 20000 7.24 (+0.78)         The Rules of Inheritance (ROINH) 99990 2.02 (-0.09)         The Adderall Diaries (ADERL) 100000 4.45 (+1.31)         Table 19 (TBL19) 28 8.01 (+0.05)         The Adderall Diaries (ADERL) 100000 4.45 (+1.31)         Weightless aka Untitled Terrence (LAWLS) 99990 2.07 (-0.01)         Life (LIFE1) 99990 2.41 (-0.09)         Knight of Cups (KNCUP) 99990 2.59 (+0.11)         Avengers: Age of Ultron (AVNG2) 5000 561.33 (+0.66)         Mena (MENA) 100000 35.00 (0.00)         Crazy for the Storm (CFTST) 99990 2.63 (-0.05)         Mena (MENA) 6422 35.00 (0.00)         Home $150M Blockbuster Warrant (SMEKD.BW) 20000 11.31 (+0.09)         Cleopatra (CLEOP) 99990 2.79 (-0.07)         Strangerland (STRNL) 50000 0.29 (+0.05)         Furious 7 $350M Blockbuster Warr (FAST7.BW) 20000 7.24 (+0.78)         Strangerland (STRNL) 50000 0.29 (+0.05)         Umrika (UMRKA) 48994 1.20 (+0.01)         A Walk in the Woods (WLKWD) 99994 2.97 (-0.05)         Strangerland (STRNL) 50000 0.29 (+0.05)         In the Garden of Beasts (ITGOB) 99990 3.02 (-0.13)         Strangerland (STRNL) 50000 0.29 (+0.05)         Go With Me (GOWME) 99990 3.25 (-0.01)         Mena (MENA) 100000 35.00 (0.00)         Eye in the Sky (EYSKY) 99990 3.71 (-0.05)         Shelter (SHELT) 50000 0.30 (+0.04)         Tupperware Unsealed (TUPRW) 99990 9.11 (-0.03)         Shelter (SHELT) 50000 0.30 (+0.04)         The Dive (TDIVE) 99990 9.63 (-0.05)         Shelter (SHELT) 50000 0.30 (+0.04)         Shelter (SHELT) 50000 0.30 (+0.04)         Mena (MENA) 11687 35.00 (0.00)