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Whisper Numbers: Movies for Grown Ups take on a Toy Story.



A couple of new wide releases will test the drawing power of its leading stars this weekend.  However, both of the adult-oriented films are unlikely to challenge the reigning champion, Toy Story 3 [TOYS3].  The Pixar animated film has been universally praised and loved by audiences of all ages.  Last year, Up went down 35% in its second weekend.  As a sequel, Toy Story 3 is likely to be more front-loaded and decline around 45%.  That would bring in roughly $60 million, which should be more than enough to hold back the two new entrants to the box office.

After failing with the more serious Funny People last year, Adam Sandler [ASAND] is back to his old shtick in Grown Ups [GRWUP] and this time he’s brought his old buddies from ‘Saturday Night Live’ with Kevin James [KJAME] standing in for Chris Farley.  The PG-13 rated comedy has the usual sophomoric humor and formulaic storyline that appeals to middle of the road moviegoers.   Sandler consistently opens his movies to $40 million with his last Sony effort You Don’t Mess with the Zohan at $38.5 million.  Grown Ups should come in the same territory at around $39 million from 3534 theaters.

Knight & Day [KNDAY] finds Tom Cruise [TCRUI] embracing his real life persona by playing a character audiences won’t be sure if is a real psychotic or just a secret agent acting crazy.  Former Charlie’s Angels Cameron Diaz [CDIAZ] serves as a perfect comedic and romantic foil in a thriller filled with over the top action. However, the PG-13 rated film has not been tracking well, so Fox pushed up the release date to Wednesday where it earned a soft $3.8 million.  Since its target demographics are not free on weekdays, business should pick up during the weekend.  Opening in 3098 theaters, Knight & Day may sweep away $26 million from Friday to Sunday.
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The Karate Kid [KFKID] got roughed up a bit by Toy Story 3, but should bounce back up with about $16 million in its third weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): TOYS3, ASAND, GRWUP, KJAME, KNDAY, TCRUI, CDIAZ, KFKID

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 24, 2010 @ 04:15 PM        1301 views


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    Disney Studio Fund (DISNX) 10000 11.01 (-0.17)         Citizenfour (CTZNF) 100000 1.34 (-0.66)         The Cellar (CELAR) 100000 26.63 (-1.29)         The Maze Runner (MAZER) 100000 85.78 (-2.32)         The Maze Runner (MAZER) 100000 85.78 (-2.32)         Richard Pryor (PRYOR) 100000 5.86 (+1.63)         This Is Where I Leave You (TWILU) 1 31.43 (+2.00)         This Is Where I Leave You (TWILU) 25000 31.43 (+2.00)         Land Ho! (LNDHO) 49000 0.73 (+0.01)         Ghostbusters 3 (GHST3) 1 25.06 (+1.88)         Ghostbusters 3 (GHST3) 100000 25.06 (+1.88)         Bobbie Sue (BOBSU) 100000 0.02 (-0.04)         All Quiet on the Western Front (AQOWF) 100000 0.13 (-0.03)         Hansel and Gretel 2 (HNGW2) 100000 19.49 (-1.75)         Independence Day 2 (IDAY2) 162 95.14 (-0.10)         1,000 Times Good Night (1TGNT) 8 1.18 (+0.02)         Bobbie Sue (BOBSU) 100000 0.02 (-0.04)         The Taliban Shuffle (TSHUF) 100000 18.89 (-1.11)         Thor 3 (THOR3) 123 128.01 (-0.13)         Take Care (TAKCR) 100000 1.60 (-0.40)         Kingsman: The Secret Service (TSSRV) 100000 55.49 (+0.69)         In the Beginning (BEGIN) 100000 0.01 (0.00)         Independence Day 2 (IDAY2) 646 95.14 (-0.10)         Citizenfour (CTZNF) 100000 1.34 (-0.66)         Fifty Shades of Grey (50SHD) 71 118.22 (+0.12)         The Boxtrolls (BOXTR) 100000 45.54 (-0.57)         By the Sea (BYSEA) 99999 25.51 (-2.03)         Zootopia (ZOOTP) 100000 44.60 (+1.47)         The Book of Life (BOLIF) 101 62.38 (-0.23)         This Is Where I Leave You (TWILU) 1 31.43 (+2.00)         Mads Mikkelsen (MMIKK) 14463 4.27 (-0.02)         The Book of Life (BOLIF) 99 62.38 (-0.23)         Deadpool (DEADP) 100000 56.46 (+0.26)         Birdman (BIRDM) 200 23.59 (-0.22)         Dirt Music (DIRTM) 100000 0.01 (-0.04)         Devil's Night (DEVNT) 1 8.38 (+0.02)         Our Brand is Crisis (OBCRS) 984 33.17 (+2.90)         Tron: Voyage (TRON3) 3175 30.09 (+3.29)         Kill the Messenger (KMSNG) 346 6.86 (+0.02)         Richard Madden (RMADD) 13469 25.31 (+0.05)         Deadpool (DEADP) 281 56.46 (+0.26)         Christ the Lord: Out of Egypt (CHRST) 3929 16.78 (-0.02)         The Devil and the Deep Blue Sea (DVDBS) 100000 0.01 (-0.04)         Kill the Messenger (KMSNG) 52 6.86 (+0.02)         Snabba Cash (remake) (SCASH) 100000 0.01 (-0.15)         Snabba Cash (remake) (SCASH) 100000 0.01 (-0.15)         How to Talk to Girls (HTLKG) 100000 0.01 (-0.07)         The Judge (JUDGE) 100 46.57 (+0.26)         Incarceron (INCAR) 100000 0.01 (0.00)         Dracula Untold (DRCYZ) 199 25.16 (-0.63)