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Whisper Numbers: Movies for Grown Ups take on a Toy Story.



A couple of new wide releases will test the drawing power of its leading stars this weekend.  However, both of the adult-oriented films are unlikely to challenge the reigning champion, Toy Story 3 [TOYS3].  The Pixar animated film has been universally praised and loved by audiences of all ages.  Last year, Up went down 35% in its second weekend.  As a sequel, Toy Story 3 is likely to be more front-loaded and decline around 45%.  That would bring in roughly $60 million, which should be more than enough to hold back the two new entrants to the box office.

After failing with the more serious Funny People last year, Adam Sandler [ASAND] is back to his old shtick in Grown Ups [GRWUP] and this time he’s brought his old buddies from ‘Saturday Night Live’ with Kevin James [KJAME] standing in for Chris Farley.  The PG-13 rated comedy has the usual sophomoric humor and formulaic storyline that appeals to middle of the road moviegoers.   Sandler consistently opens his movies to $40 million with his last Sony effort You Don’t Mess with the Zohan at $38.5 million.  Grown Ups should come in the same territory at around $39 million from 3534 theaters.

Knight & Day [KNDAY] finds Tom Cruise [TCRUI] embracing his real life persona by playing a character audiences won’t be sure if is a real psychotic or just a secret agent acting crazy.  Former Charlie’s Angels Cameron Diaz [CDIAZ] serves as a perfect comedic and romantic foil in a thriller filled with over the top action. However, the PG-13 rated film has not been tracking well, so Fox pushed up the release date to Wednesday where it earned a soft $3.8 million.  Since its target demographics are not free on weekdays, business should pick up during the weekend.  Opening in 3098 theaters, Knight & Day may sweep away $26 million from Friday to Sunday.
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The Karate Kid [KFKID] got roughed up a bit by Toy Story 3, but should bounce back up with about $16 million in its third weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): TOYS3, ASAND, GRWUP, KJAME, KNDAY, TCRUI, CDIAZ, KFKID

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 24, 2010 @ 04:15 PM        1548 views


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Hello, My Name is Doris (HMNID) 100000 1.81 (+0.12)         Zoolander No. 2 (ZOOL2) 10000 61.58 (-1.27)         Overdrive (OVDRV) 8000 1.90 (+0.06)         Kidnap (KDNAP) 21000 8.13 (-0.21)         How to be Single (HTBSN) 10000 32.69 (+0.05)         The Winding Stream (WNDST) 100000 0.40 (+0.05)         Elle (ELLE) 30000 2.01 (+0.53)         Elle (ELLE) 40000 2.01 (+0.53)         Deadpool (DEADP) 10000 128.91 (-0.98)         Avatar 3 (AVAT3) 4000 246.42 (-1.08)         Avatar 3 (AVAT3) 2500 246.42 (-1.08)         Bohemian Rhapsody aka Mercury (FREDI) 29999 2.16 (0.00)         Star Wars: Episode IX (STAR9) 200 452.14 (+2.63)         Enzo Ferrari (ENZOF) 20 17.12 (-0.23)         The Winding Stream (WNDST) 100000 0.40 (+0.05)         The Brits are Coming (TBACM) 50000 2.15 (-0.04)         Submergence (SUBMG) 20000 9.89 (-0.32)         Quentin Tarantino (QTARA) 20000 62.55 (-0.53)         Swiss Army Man (SWSAM) 22000 4.01 (-0.06)         Swiss Army Man (SWSAM) 45000 4.01 (-0.06)         The Confirmation (CNFRM) 100000 1.95 (+0.15)         Amusement Park (AMUSM) 100000 41.68 (+1.68)         The Discovery (DSCVR) 18000 9.16 (-0.04)         The Drummer (DRUMR) 30000 0.01 (-0.05)         Deadpool (DEADP) 800 128.91 (-0.98)         Amusement Park (AMUSM) 6108 41.68 (+1.68)         Console Wars (CONSW) 30000 11.79 (-0.09)         The Confirmation (CNFRM) 100000 1.95 (+0.15)         Robert De Niro (RDENI) 20000 33.78 (-0.08)         Anne Hathaway (AHATH) 2500 129.53 (+0.54)         Blazing Samurai (BLAZS) 22000 22.69 (-0.10)         Morris Chestnut (MCHES) 20000 44.43 (+0.93)         The Great Gilly Hopkins (TGGH) 2000 2.14 (-0.21)         Kate Bosworth (KBOSW) 20000 9.97 (+0.16)         Dark Universe aka Justice League (DARKU) 8000 20.37 (-0.10)         Dark Universe aka Justice League (DARKU) 18000 20.37 (-0.10)         Gina Carano (GCARA) 20000 82.59 (0.00)         The Great Gilly Hopkins (TGGH) 2000 2.14 (-0.21)         Animal Crackers (ANMLC) 22000 30.55 (-0.31)         Enzo Ferrari (ENZOF) 4987 17.12 (-0.23)         Animal Crackers (ANMLC) 20000 30.55 (-0.31)         Dave Bautista (DBAUT) 20000 104.50 (+1.42)         Star Wars: Episode IX (STAR9) 30 452.14 (+2.63)         Yellow (YELOW) 100000 0.09 (-0.05)         Meet the Blacks (MTBLK) 22000 7.06 (-0.11)         Matt Smith (MSMIT) 20000 35.21 (-1.83)         Eddie the Eagle (EDEGL) 1000 26.77 (+0.25)         Yellow (YELOW) 100000 0.09 (-0.05)         Frozen 2 (FROZ2) 4000 149.93 (-0.64)         Frozen 2 (FROZ2) 3000 149.93 (-0.64)