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Whisper Numbers: Movies for Grown Ups take on a Toy Story.



A couple of new wide releases will test the drawing power of its leading stars this weekend.  However, both of the adult-oriented films are unlikely to challenge the reigning champion, Toy Story 3 [TOYS3].  The Pixar animated film has been universally praised and loved by audiences of all ages.  Last year, Up went down 35% in its second weekend.  As a sequel, Toy Story 3 is likely to be more front-loaded and decline around 45%.  That would bring in roughly $60 million, which should be more than enough to hold back the two new entrants to the box office.

After failing with the more serious Funny People last year, Adam Sandler [ASAND] is back to his old shtick in Grown Ups [GRWUP] and this time he’s brought his old buddies from ‘Saturday Night Live’ with Kevin James [KJAME] standing in for Chris Farley.  The PG-13 rated comedy has the usual sophomoric humor and formulaic storyline that appeals to middle of the road moviegoers.   Sandler consistently opens his movies to $40 million with his last Sony effort You Don’t Mess with the Zohan at $38.5 million.  Grown Ups should come in the same territory at around $39 million from 3534 theaters.

Knight & Day [KNDAY] finds Tom Cruise [TCRUI] embracing his real life persona by playing a character audiences won’t be sure if is a real psychotic or just a secret agent acting crazy.  Former Charlie’s Angels Cameron Diaz [CDIAZ] serves as a perfect comedic and romantic foil in a thriller filled with over the top action. However, the PG-13 rated film has not been tracking well, so Fox pushed up the release date to Wednesday where it earned a soft $3.8 million.  Since its target demographics are not free on weekdays, business should pick up during the weekend.  Opening in 3098 theaters, Knight & Day may sweep away $26 million from Friday to Sunday.
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The Karate Kid [KFKID] got roughed up a bit by Toy Story 3, but should bounce back up with about $16 million in its third weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): TOYS3, ASAND, GRWUP, KJAME, KNDAY, TCRUI, CDIAZ, KFKID

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 24, 2010 @ 04:15 PM        1404 views


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Chappie H$25 Call (CHAPI.CA) 20000 1.85 (-0.90)         The Secret Life of Houdini (TSLOH) 99000 38.21 (+0.56)         Chappie H$25 Call (CHAPI.CA) 20000 1.85 (-0.90)         Cinderella - Opening Weekend (CINDE.OW) 100000 65.00 (0.00)         Cinderella H$65 Put (CINDE.PU) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Ex Machina (EXMCH) 100000 5.11 (-0.24)         Chappie - Opening Weekend (CHAPI.OW) 100000 20.34 (-3.67)         Cinderella - Opening Weekend (CINDE.OW) 50000 65.00 (0.00)         Barbie (BARBI) 100000 1.69 (+1.30)         Chappie - Opening Weekend (CHAPI.OW) 100000 20.34 (-3.67)         Daughter of God (DOGOD) 50000 6.46 (-0.13)         Cinderella H$65 Call (CINDE.CA) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Indiana Jones 5 (INDI5) 100000 57.51 (-0.23)         Barbie (BARBI) 100000 1.69 (+1.30)         Run All Night H$15 Put (ALNIT.PU) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Barbie (BARBI) 99999 1.69 (+1.30)         Science-Fiction Fund (SCIFI) 1000 20.10 (+0.10)         Adam Shankman (ASHAN) 20000 85.93 (-0.20)         Run All Night - Opening Weekend (ALNIT.OW) 15000 15.00 (0.00)         Paper Towns (PRTWN) 100000 26.27 (+1.18)         Barbie (BARBI) 100000 1.69 (+1.30)         Chappie (CHAPI) 100000 57.35 (-9.70)         Run All Night H$15 Call (ALNIT.CA) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Unfinished Business (BSTRP) 100000 24.98 (-5.77)         Paper Towns (PRTWN) 99400 26.27 (+1.18)         Unfinished Business (BSTRP) 100000 24.98 (-5.77)         Mia Wasikowska (MWASI) 7000 6.32 (+0.07)         Unfinished Business (BSTRP) 100000 24.98 (-5.77)         Chappie (CHAPI) 100000 57.35 (-9.70)         The Outskirts (OUTSK) 30000 10.00 (0.00)         Africa (AFRCA) 1000 29.00 (+6.38)         Jackson Rathbone (JRATH) 873 151.46 (-1.14)         Unfinished Business (BSTRP) 100000 24.98 (-5.77)         Fifty Shades of Grey $160M Block (50SHD.BW) 20000 7.29 (+0.93)         Beauty and the Beast (BTATB) 50000 86.84 (+2.83)         Chappie (CHAPI) 100000 57.35 (-9.70)         Independence Day 2 (IDAY2) 1000 105.36 (+6.42)         Chappie (CHAPI) 100000 57.35 (-9.70)         Independence Day 2 (IDAY2) 2000 105.36 (+6.42)         Neighbors 2 (NEIB2) 50000 65.55 (-0.57)         Victoria Justice (VJUST) 20000 2.39 (+0.40)         Selfless (SLFLS) 5000 24.54 (+3.98)         Chappie (CHAPI) 30000 57.35 (-9.70)         Chappie (CHAPI) 99999 57.35 (-9.70)         Science-Fiction Fund (SCIFI) 10000 20.10 (+0.10)         Selfless (SLFLS) 100000 24.54 (+3.98)         The Outskirts (OUTSK) 1000 10.00 (0.00)         Tink (TINK) 100000 0.02 (-0.05)         Avengers: Age of Ultron (AVNG2) 100000 518.49 (+2.89)         It (IT1) 13000 26.97 (+0.14)