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Whisper Numbers: Movies for Grown Ups take on a Toy Story.



A couple of new wide releases will test the drawing power of its leading stars this weekend.  However, both of the adult-oriented films are unlikely to challenge the reigning champion, Toy Story 3 [TOYS3].  The Pixar animated film has been universally praised and loved by audiences of all ages.  Last year, Up went down 35% in its second weekend.  As a sequel, Toy Story 3 is likely to be more front-loaded and decline around 45%.  That would bring in roughly $60 million, which should be more than enough to hold back the two new entrants to the box office.

After failing with the more serious Funny People last year, Adam Sandler [ASAND] is back to his old shtick in Grown Ups [GRWUP] and this time he’s brought his old buddies from ‘Saturday Night Live’ with Kevin James [KJAME] standing in for Chris Farley.  The PG-13 rated comedy has the usual sophomoric humor and formulaic storyline that appeals to middle of the road moviegoers.   Sandler consistently opens his movies to $40 million with his last Sony effort You Don’t Mess with the Zohan at $38.5 million.  Grown Ups should come in the same territory at around $39 million from 3534 theaters.

Knight & Day [KNDAY] finds Tom Cruise [TCRUI] embracing his real life persona by playing a character audiences won’t be sure if is a real psychotic or just a secret agent acting crazy.  Former Charlie’s Angels Cameron Diaz [CDIAZ] serves as a perfect comedic and romantic foil in a thriller filled with over the top action. However, the PG-13 rated film has not been tracking well, so Fox pushed up the release date to Wednesday where it earned a soft $3.8 million.  Since its target demographics are not free on weekdays, business should pick up during the weekend.  Opening in 3098 theaters, Knight & Day may sweep away $26 million from Friday to Sunday.
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The Karate Kid [KFKID] got roughed up a bit by Toy Story 3, but should bounce back up with about $16 million in its third weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): TOYS3, ASAND, GRWUP, KJAME, KNDAY, TCRUI, CDIAZ, KFKID

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 24, 2010 @ 04:15 PM        1339 views


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Doctor Strange (DRSTR) 100000 111.20 (-3.59)         Interstellar $150M Blockbuster W (NTSTL.BW) 20000 6.47 (+0.50)         Toy Story 4 (TOYS4) 100000 200.00 (0.00)         Avatar 2 (AVAT2) 100000 290.91 (-1.93)         The Amazing Spider-Man 3 (SPID6) 100000 99.12 (-0.55)         Toy Story 4 (TOYS4) 1 200.00 (0.00)         She's Funny That Way (SFTWY) 100000 5.75 (+0.02)         Big Hero 6 $170M Blockbuster War (BHERO.BW) 20000 6.49 (+0.69)         The Flash (FLASH) 1 56.24 (+0.30)         LEGO Batman (LBATM) 100000 94.89 (-5.45)         Man Up (MANUP) 100000 4.38 (+1.00)         Warcraft (WARCF) 603 73.37 (-0.33)         Leatherface (LTHFC) 1 26.67 (-0.29)         Blackhat (CYBER) 100000 29.21 (-1.87)         Terrence Howard (THOWA) 20000 37.53 (+0.17)         23 Jump Street (21JS3) 68851 66.18 (-1.97)         Blackhat (CYBER) 100000 29.21 (-1.87)         The Good Dinosaur (DINOS) 50000 104.31 (-0.08)         Yoga Hosers (YOGAH) 31943 12.77 (-0.06)         Robin Wright (RWPEN) 20000 24.36 (+0.05)         Horrible Bosses 2 H$40 Call Wed- (HBOS2.CA) 20000 2.83 (-0.13)         Universal Studio Fund (UNIVX) 1104 20.74 (-0.01)         Steve Jobs (SJOBS) 100000 18.98 (-2.62)         Toy Story 4 (TOYS4) 27987 200.00 (0.00)         Paul Giamatti (PGIAM) 20000 63.01 (-0.13)         Suicide Squad (SUICD) 100000 132.76 (-7.65)         Sinister Six (SINST) 100000 66.89 (-0.53)         The Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 50000 81.96 (-2.93)         Patricia Clarkson (PCLAR) 20000 27.93 (+0.12)         Zoolander 2 (ZOOL2) 100000 31.32 (+1.89)         Zoolander 2 (ZOOL2) 100000 31.32 (+1.89)         Toy Story 4 (TOYS4) 100000 200.00 (0.00)         The Maze Runner: Scorch Trials (MAZE2) 100000 46.84 (-1.18)         Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (GOTG2) 50000 222.61 (-7.12)         Yucatan (YUCAT) 8210 32.78 (+7.40)         Animation Fund (AMATN) 10000 55.41 (-0.01)         Naomi Watts (NWATT) 20000 12.93 (+0.04)         Toy Story 4 (TOYS4) 45150 200.00 (0.00)         Their Finest Hour And A Half (TFHAH) 2 5.36 (-0.64)         Michael Nyqvist (MNYQV) 20000 53.28 (+0.06)         Dad's Army (DARMY) 2 3.54 (-0.46)         Man Up (MANUP) 1 4.38 (+1.00)         Toy Story 4 (TOYS4) 1305 200.00 (0.00)         Bhopal: A Prayer for Rain (BHOPA) 1 0.61 (+0.02)         Toy Story 4 (TOYS4) 72013 200.00 (0.00)         Incarnate (NCRNT) 1 4.77 (+0.02)         The Maze Runner: Scorch Trials (MAZE2) 60000 46.84 (-1.18)         Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (GOTG2) 30000 222.61 (-7.12)         Happy New Year (HPYNY) 1 4.66 (+0.12)         Toy Story 4 (TOYS4) 100000 200.00 (0.00)