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Whisper Numbers: Can Argo beat Taken 2?

Even with high expectations heading into last weekend, Taken 2 [TAKE2] outperformed the competition by a wide margin. As with most highly anticipated sequels, Taken 2 was likely front-loaded by fans and headed for a 50% drop to about $23 million, which may be enough to hold off the slew of newcomers at the box office.

Warner Bros.’ Argo [ARGO] arrives in theaters riding a crescendo of Oscar buzz. Ben Affleck [BAFFL] directs and stars in the film based on the true story of how the CIA rescued six Americans trapped by the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The R-rated thriller has earned overwhelmingly positive reviews, which will bring out the adult moviegoers. Opening in 3232 theaters, Argo could net $20 million.

Kevin James [KJAME] plays a teacher turned MMA fighter in the comedy Here Comes the Boom [HCTBM]. With a PG-rating and formulaic storyline, the film aims to capture a broad audience. However, Here Comes the Boom may be too family-friendly for fans of the fighting sport, which itself could turned off women. Competition for young male moviegoers is also fierce this weekend. Fighting in 3014 theaters, Here Comes the Boom may earn $15 million.

The R-rated horror film Sinister [SINIS] stars Ethan Hawke [EHAWK] as a family man who uncovers some disturbing home videos. The Summit release has generated positive buzz from early reviews, which should attract horror fans. Sinister could scare up $14 million from 2527 locations.

Colin Farrell [CFARR], Woody Harrelson [WHARR] and Christopher Walken [CWALK] star in the R-rated comedy Seven Psychopaths [7PSYC]. Since none of the cast are guaranteed draws, CBS Films has done an admirable marketing job with funny trailers. Opening in just 1512 theaters, Seven Psychopaths could ransom about $7.5 million.

After 3 weeks of limited release, Perks of Being a Wallflower [POBWF] expands nationwide to 762 theaters. Based on a popular young adult novel, the PG-13 rated drama will primarily draw on young women. Perks of Being a Wallflower could dance away with about $3.5 million.

The weekend’s last new release is the sequel based on the Ayn Rand novel, Atlas Shrugged, Part II [ATLA2].  The first film grossed a respectable $4.6 million in limited release. The sequel will open wide in 1012 theaters and could tally $2.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): TAKE2, ARGO, BAFFL, KJAME, HCTBM, SINIS, EHAWK, CFARR, WHARR, CWALK, 7PSYC, POBWF, ATLA2

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, October 11, 2012 @ 04:15 PM 5920 views

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Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 25000 20.00 (0.00)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 75000 20.00 (0.00)          The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (TBCPE) 150000 23.56 (+0.44)          The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (TBCPE) 150000 23.56 (+0.44)          The Super Mario Bros. Movie 2 (MARI2) 150000 368.36 (+1.50)          Small Things Like These (SMTLT) 150000 3.43 (-0.60)          In The Lost Lands (INTLL) 150000 9.03 (-1.09)          The Thicket (THCKT) 150000 0.02 (0.00)          Venom: The Last Dance (VENM3) 50000 191.75 (-1.80)          ABC: High Potential (HIPOTN) 100 11.81 (+0.15)          CW: The Librarians: The Next Cha (LIBTNC) 1000 9.88 (-0.29)          Turn Me On (TMEON) 150000 0.84 (+0.72)          CW: The Librarians: The Next Cha (LIBTNC) 1000 9.88 (-0.29)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 1 136.55 (-0.23)          I Want Your Sex (IWYSX) 150000 5.63 (-0.45)          The Substance (SBSTN) 150000 10.07 (+1.57)          Dune: Part Three (DUNE3) 1000 178.70 (-3.43)          Never Let Go (MTHRL) 150000 15.64 (-0.60)          Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Ve (ASPD3) 1000 204.45 (-1.49)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Untitled Monsterverse Godzilla x (GOKO3) 100000 100.66 (+1.54)          Transformers 8 (TFRM8) 150000 99.10 (-0.55)          Ballerina Overdrive (BALOD) 150000 13.79 (-1.21)          Transformers 8 (TFRM8) 10000 99.10 (-0.55)          The Substance (SBSTN) 150000 10.07 (+1.57)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 23.81 (+0.01)          Joker: Folie Ă  Deux (JOKE2) 50000 226.54 (-1.32)          Ocean's 14 (OCEN5) 150000 46.19 (-0.81)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 150000 256.39 (-1.87)          In The Lost Lands (INTLL) 10000 9.03 (-1.09)          Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (BEET2) 50000 243.29 (-0.61)          Shang-Chi 2 (SHCH2) 150000 77.01 (-0.18)          Never Let Go (MTHRL) 150000 15.64 (-0.60)          Den of Thieves: Pantera (DENO2) 150000 24.89 (+1.37)          Never Let Go (MTHRL) 150000 15.64 (-0.60)          Lilo & Stitch (LILST) 150000 93.07 (+2.19)          Speak No Evil (SPNOE) 150000 24.77 (-0.10)          Bagman - Opening Weekend (BAGMA.OW) 100000 3.04 (-0.71)          Den of Thieves: Pantera (DENO2) 50000 24.89 (+1.37)          The Substance (SBSTN) 2 10.07 (+1.57)          Lee (LEE) 150000 5.09 (-0.01)          Hey Joe aka Me, You (TUMIA) 150000 0.88 (+0.87)          The Killer's Game (KLRGM) 150000 5.55 (-0.18)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Barbarella (BARBA) 1000 48.93 (+2.57)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Transformers One (TFCYB) 150000 101.29 (-2.88)          The Substance (SBSTN) 150000 10.07 (+1.57)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)