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Whisper Numbers: A close race for the top five

With all eyes on the Academy Awards ceremony this Sunday, Hollywood serves up only a couple of moderate-sized new releases. The top five films this weekend may only be separated by a few millions. After being edged out of first place by a million last week, Identity Thief [IDTHF] looks to regain the top spot in its third weekend. The R-rated comedy should hold better than 55% and finish around $13.5 million.

Dwayne Johnson [TROCK] starts off a run of 4 films in 4 months with the PG-13 rated Snitch [SNITC]. The action drama is based on the true story of a father who goes undercover in a prison in a deal to get his son a lighter sentence. Johnson’s last solo vehicle, the R-rated Faster, earned $12 million in its five-day Thanksgiving opening. While many recent action films by older stars have bombed, Johnson should appeal to younger moviegoers, especially fans of wrestling where he has returned to become WWE Champion once again. Summit may score $12 million from Snitch in 2511 theaters.

As a male-targeted action sequel with terrible reviews, A Good Day to Die Hard [DIEH5] is likely to be front-loaded. A 50% drop-off would bring in $12 million.

With word of mouth about a twist ending, Safe Haven [SAFHV] may attract those who are not fans of Nicholas Sparks romances. Female moviegoers should keep Safe Haven from declining more than 45% to $12 million.

 

The horror film Dark Skies [DRKSK] concerns a family trying to prevent their constant abductions by aliens. With Keri Russell [KERUS] as its only star and a PG-13 rating, the Dimension release hopes to attract young female moviegoers. Playing in 2313 theaters, Dark Skies could pull in $10 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): IDTHF, TROCK, SNITC, DIEH5, SAFHV, DRKSK, KERUS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 21, 2013 @ 04:14 PM 2754 views

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The Bride! (BRIDE) 5000 64.57 (+2.39)          Elio (ELIO) 150000 65.85 (+0.13)          Good Fortune (GDFRT) 10000 43.15 (+0.07)          Black Phone 2 (BPHO2) 10000 64.54 (+0.03)          The Family Business Fund V (GENES) 20000 50.39 (-0.09)          I Know What You Did Last Summer (IKNO4) 40000 45.41 (-1.13)          Lesley Manville (LMANV) 100 6.36 (+0.06)          The Beatles - A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 900 93.85 (+0.19)          Superman (SUPRM) 150000 276.19 (+6.32)          The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 10365 47.79 (-0.02)          28 Years Later (28LT3) 150000 68.88 (+0.47)          Fackham Hall (FACKH) 10000 2.77 (0.00)          Monster High (MONHI) 15000 31.55 (+2.92)          The Strangers’ Case (TSCAS) 10000 4.14 (-0.02)          Incidents Around the House aka U (IATHS) 150000 24.62 (-0.28)          Incidents Around the House aka U (IATHS) 150000 24.62 (-0.28)          The Beatles - A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 4100 93.85 (+0.19)          Muscle (MUSCL) 74899 0.26 (-0.01)          The Senior (SENIR) 60000 5.73 (+1.71)          Spaceballs 2 (SPCB2) 5000 86.59 (-0.08)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          The Wild Robot 2 (TWRB2) 150000 62.65 (-2.00)          Alien sequel (ALIE6) 5000 78.74 (+0.10)          The Wild Robot 2 (TWRB2) 150000 62.65 (-2.00)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mu (TMNT4) 5000 72.09 (-0.07)          How to Train Your Dragon $225M B (HTTYD.BW) 25000 8.18 (+0.50)          Elden Ring (ELDEN) 5000 60.24 (+1.15)          Regretting You (RGRTU) 150000 35.22 (+0.01)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          How to Train Your Dragon $225M B (HTTYD.BW) 25000 8.18 (+0.50)          The Beekeeper 2 (BEKP2) 15000 23.61 (-1.72)          Featherwood (FTHRW) 30000 9.32 (-0.74)          Blade (BLAD1) 150000 48.70 (-0.38)          Godzilla x Kong: Supernova (GOKO3) 5000 135.64 (+0.15)          Hari Hara Veera Mallu (HHVM1) 150000 2.19 (-0.02)          Sonic the Hedgehog 4 (SONC4) 5000 153.90 (+0.02)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Michael (MJACK) 5000 92.66 (+0.17)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 5000 64.57 (+2.39)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 10000 18.00 (0.00)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Shrek 5 (SHRK5) 20000 207.26 (-0.02)          Rock'em Sock'em Robots (RMSMR) 150000 15.42 (+0.11)          Misdirection (MSDRC) 150000 1.61 (-0.39)          Rock'em Sock'em Robots (RMSMR) 149999 15.42 (+0.11)          Sound of Falling (SOFAL) 150000 1.05 (+0.19)          Artificial (AIFIC) 10000 24.38 (-3.32)          Nuremberg (NUREM) 150000 14.78 (+0.20)          Elden Ring (ELDEN) 150000 60.24 (+1.15)