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Whisper Numbers: A close race for the top five

With all eyes on the Academy Awards ceremony this Sunday, Hollywood serves up only a couple of moderate-sized new releases. The top five films this weekend may only be separated by a few millions. After being edged out of first place by a million last week, Identity Thief [IDTHF] looks to regain the top spot in its third weekend. The R-rated comedy should hold better than 55% and finish around $13.5 million.

Dwayne Johnson [TROCK] starts off a run of 4 films in 4 months with the PG-13 rated Snitch [SNITC]. The action drama is based on the true story of a father who goes undercover in a prison in a deal to get his son a lighter sentence. Johnson’s last solo vehicle, the R-rated Faster, earned $12 million in its five-day Thanksgiving opening. While many recent action films by older stars have bombed, Johnson should appeal to younger moviegoers, especially fans of wrestling where he has returned to become WWE Champion once again. Summit may score $12 million from Snitch in 2511 theaters.

As a male-targeted action sequel with terrible reviews, A Good Day to Die Hard [DIEH5] is likely to be front-loaded. A 50% drop-off would bring in $12 million.

With word of mouth about a twist ending, Safe Haven [SAFHV] may attract those who are not fans of Nicholas Sparks romances. Female moviegoers should keep Safe Haven from declining more than 45% to $12 million.

 

The horror film Dark Skies [DRKSK] concerns a family trying to prevent their constant abductions by aliens. With Keri Russell [KERUS] as its only star and a PG-13 rating, the Dimension release hopes to attract young female moviegoers. Playing in 2313 theaters, Dark Skies could pull in $10 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): IDTHF, TROCK, SNITC, DIEH5, SAFHV, DRKSK, KERUS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 21, 2013 @ 04:14 PM 2756 views

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Featherwood (FTHRW) 150000 9.32 (-0.74)          Clayface (CLAYF) 150000 68.45 (+0.30)          I Know What You Did Last Summer (IKNO4) 150000 45.13 (-1.41)          Carice van Houten (CVHOU) 5000 5.36 (+0.01)          I Know What You Did Last Summer (IKNO4) 150000 45.13 (-1.41)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 150000 281.50 (+0.94)          Christopher Miller (CMILL) 5000 171.68 (+1.90)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 45.42 (+0.30)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 150000 64.50 (+2.32)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 150000 64.50 (+2.32)          Superman (SUPRM) 150000 277.42 (+7.55)          Animal Friends (ANFRN) 150000 71.72 (+0.33)          Cameron Crowe (CCROW) 5000 29.19 (-0.02)          The Devil Wears Prada 2 aka Reve (PRAD2) 150000 99.49 (+0.12)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Chris Columbus (CCOLU) 5000 94.39 (-0.05)          Super Mario World aka The Super (MARI2) 150000 427.16 (+3.48)          Sophie Okonedo (SOKON) 25000 38.79 (0.00)          Hoppers (HOPPR) 150000 123.84 (-0.18)          Hoppers (HOPPR) 150000 123.84 (-0.18)          Jaimie Alexander (JALXA) 20000 86.27 (+0.40)          Jaimie Alexander (JALXA) 20000 86.27 (+0.40)          Scream 7 aka Scream VII (SCRM7) 150000 67.92 (+0.25)          28 Years Later: The Bone Temple (28LT4) 150000 62.31 (+0.10)          Kiss of the Spider Woman (KOTSW) 10000 27.80 (+0.09)          Kiss of the Spider Woman (KOTSW) 150000 27.80 (+0.09)          Psycho Killer (PSYKL) 149000 4.30 (+1.98)          Finally Dawn (FNALL) 149999 0.08 (+0.01)          Red Sonja (SONJA) 149999 1.49 (-0.29)          The Man with the Bag (TMWTB) 50000 15.75 (-0.08)          The Naked Gun (NKGUN) 150000 87.57 (-0.45)          The Naked Gun (NKGUN) 150000 87.57 (-0.45)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 150000 8.34 (-0.02)          Simon Rex (SREX) 25000 7.53 (-0.15)          Ralph Fiennes (RFIEN) 25000 24.01 (+0.25)          The Senior (SENIR) 50000 5.84 (+1.82)          Jack Quaid (JQUAI) 25000 80.75 (-0.76)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Cillian Murphy (CMURP) 25000 94.85 (-0.75)          Alex Wolff (AWOLF) 25000 51.54 (-1.33)          Animal Friends (ANFRN) 100000 71.72 (+0.33)          Anaconda (ANAC3) 150000 66.71 (+0.21)          Cillian Murphy (CMURP) 25000 94.85 (-0.75)          Wonka 2 (WONK2) 1 76.65 (-0.23)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 1 18.00 (0.00)          Wonka 2 (WONK2) 1 76.65 (-0.23)          How to Train Your Dragon $225M B (HTTYD.BW) 25000 8.21 (+0.53)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          28 Years Later: The Bone Temple (28LT4) 1 62.31 (+0.10)          Spider-Woman (SPDWM) 150000 20.76 (-0.10)