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Whisper Numbers: A close race for the top five

With all eyes on the Academy Awards ceremony this Sunday, Hollywood serves up only a couple of moderate-sized new releases. The top five films this weekend may only be separated by a few millions. After being edged out of first place by a million last week, Identity Thief [IDTHF] looks to regain the top spot in its third weekend. The R-rated comedy should hold better than 55% and finish around $13.5 million.

Dwayne Johnson [TROCK] starts off a run of 4 films in 4 months with the PG-13 rated Snitch [SNITC]. The action drama is based on the true story of a father who goes undercover in a prison in a deal to get his son a lighter sentence. Johnson’s last solo vehicle, the R-rated Faster, earned $12 million in its five-day Thanksgiving opening. While many recent action films by older stars have bombed, Johnson should appeal to younger moviegoers, especially fans of wrestling where he has returned to become WWE Champion once again. Summit may score $12 million from Snitch in 2511 theaters.

As a male-targeted action sequel with terrible reviews, A Good Day to Die Hard [DIEH5] is likely to be front-loaded. A 50% drop-off would bring in $12 million.

With word of mouth about a twist ending, Safe Haven [SAFHV] may attract those who are not fans of Nicholas Sparks romances. Female moviegoers should keep Safe Haven from declining more than 45% to $12 million.

 

The horror film Dark Skies [DRKSK] concerns a family trying to prevent their constant abductions by aliens. With Keri Russell [KERUS] as its only star and a PG-13 rating, the Dimension release hopes to attract young female moviegoers. Playing in 2313 theaters, Dark Skies could pull in $10 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): IDTHF, TROCK, SNITC, DIEH5, SAFHV, DRKSK, KERUS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 21, 2013 @ 04:14 PM 2755 views

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The Long Walk (TLWLK) 150000 36.55 (+0.26)          The Bad Guys 2 (TBAD2) 150000 72.62 (+1.91)          The Senior (SENIR) 150000 5.79 (+1.77)          Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) 150000 61.72 (-0.21)          Last Days (LDJAC) 15000 2.10 (-0.34)          Above The Below (ABELW) 150000 7.66 (-0.04)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 5000 144.86 (+0.30)          Bunker (BUNKR) 150000 6.78 (+0.37)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 5400 78.59 (+1.15)          Artificial (AIFIC) 15000 24.82 (-2.88)          Artificial (AIFIC) 5000 24.82 (-2.88)          The Wild Robot 2 (TWRB2) 150000 62.64 (-2.01)          Featherwood (FTHRW) 150000 9.36 (-0.70)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Monster High (MONHI) 7000 31.85 (+3.22)          Michael Chiklis (MCHIK) 25000 16.68 (-0.10)          The Beekeeper 2 (BEKP2) 150000 23.95 (-1.38)          Super Mario World aka The Super (MARI2) 5000 427.14 (+3.46)          The Senior (SENIR) 150000 5.79 (+1.77)          Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 150000 440.86 (-4.81)          Elden Ring (ELDEN) 150000 60.53 (+1.44)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 3500 78.59 (+1.15)          The Family Business Fund V (GENES) 20000 50.36 (-0.12)          The Comic Fund (COMIC) 20000 89.15 (-0.31)          Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Trans (LGBTQ) 20000 49.40 (-0.04)          How to Train Your Dragon 2 (HTTY2) 2890 165.64 (+1.16)          A Prayer for the Dying (APFTD) 38501 1.52 (+0.02)          Snoop Dogg Biopic (SNOOP) 122273 36.39 (+0.08)          Snoop Dogg Biopic (SNOOP) 122273 36.39 (+0.08)          Superman (SUPRM) 150000 277.41 (+7.54)          The Legend of Zelda (ZELDA) 3500 164.76 (+1.18)          Meet the Parents 4 (MPRN4) 5000 74.19 (+1.20)          Zootopia 2 (ZOOT2) 150000 244.21 (+0.66)          How to Train Your Dragon $225M B (HTTYD.BW) 25000 8.21 (+0.53)          Shelby Oaks (SHOAK) 150000 6.36 (-0.01)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          I Know What You Did Last Summer (IKNO4) 150000 45.49 (-1.05)          I Know What You Did Last Summer (IKNO4) 150000 45.49 (-1.05)          Wonder Woman 3 (WOND3) 1 48.97 (+0.15)          Saw XI aka Saw 11 (SAW11) 10000 27.27 (+0.03)          John Goodman (JGOOD) 25000 34.45 (-0.22)          John Goodman (JGOOD) 20000 34.45 (-0.22)          Jack Quaid (JQUAI) 25000 80.76 (-0.75)          I Know What You Did Last Summer (IKNO4.CA) 1000 1.09 (-0.20)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 1 18.00 (0.00)          Mark Ruffalo (MRUFF) 1 119.03 (0.00)          Young Washington (YWASH) 400 21.64 (+0.02)          The Beekeeper 2 (BEKP2) 25000 23.95 (-1.38)          Old Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Monster High (MONHI) 150000 31.85 (+3.22)