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Whisper Numbers: Are the days of Saw dominance numbered?

The weekend before Halloween brings another edition in Lionsgate's money franchise, Saw VI [SAW6].  Whether you regard torture horror as trick or treat, the R-rated series have consistently delivered openings in the $30 million range.  However, the sequels have been trending downward, while Paranormal Activity [PNACT] provides direct competition this year.  Saw VI should still claim first place with about $26 million from 3036 theaters. 

Last weekend, Where the Wild Things Are [WILD] brought out fans of the children’s book young and old.  However, the PG-rated tale did not enjoy the typical Friday to Saturday bump of family films.   Mixed word of mouth could keep Where the Wild Things Are grounded in its second outing with a decline around 45% to $18 million.

After breaking out with nearly $20 million last weekend, Paranormal Activity more than doubles its theaters to 1945 this weekend. Although Saw VI poses as a strong challenge, buzz on the fresher fare Paranormal Activity remains high. The low budget horror film might gross out another $16 million.

The CG-animated Astro Boy [ASBOY] is based on the famous Japanese comics and TV series that introduced the world to anime back in the 1960s. The PG-rated film’s audience though appears to be limited to young boys and perhaps nostalgic older fans.  Blasting into 3014 theaters, Astro Boy could lift off with $12 million. 

Law Abiding Citizen [LACTZ] performed better than anyone anticipated in giving Overture its biggest hit.  The adult-targeted thriller should drop less than 50% to $11 million for its sophomore session.

Universal hopes to cash in on the vampire craze with Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant [VAMPA].  However, moviegoers seem to see right through the attempt as buzz has been sorely lacking. Staked at 2754 locations, The Vampire’s Assistant could draw in around $9 million.

Hilary Swank [HSWAN] stars in the biographical drama Amelia [AMELA].  Fox Searchlight hopes to appeal to older adults, particularly women.  Unfortunately, reviews have mostly been negative on the Mira Nair [MNAIR] directed film. Flying in under the radar at just 818 theaters, Amelia may settle for about $5 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.

 



Tag(s): SAW6, PNACT, WILD, ASBOY, LACTZ, VAMPA, HSWAN, AMELA, MNAIR

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, October 22, 2009 @ 03:59 PM 3213 views

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Horizon: An American Saga Chapte (HORZ2) 43400 62.64 (+0.09)          Georgina Campbell (GCAMP) 25000 20.72 (+0.25)          Georgina Campbell (GCAMP) 25000 20.72 (+0.25)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 6000 17.34 (+0.09)          Madden (MADEN) 12000 30.80 (+0.17)          Separate Rooms (SEPRM) 150000 5.81 (-0.19)          East Bay (EASTB) 150000 0.95 (-0.05)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4.CA) 25000 1.19 (-0.04)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4.CA) 25000 1.19 (-0.04)          The Fall Guy H$50 Call (FALGY.CA) 25000 2.00 (-0.04)          The Fall Guy H$50 Call (FALGY.CA) 25000 2.00 (-0.04)          The Fall Guy - Opening Weekend (FALGY.OW) 100000 42.30 (-0.26)          The Fall Guy - Opening Weekend (FALGY.OW) 100000 42.30 (-0.26)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4.PU) 25000 2.99 (+0.04)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4.PU) 25000 2.99 (+0.04)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4.OW) 100000 47.43 (-0.20)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4.OW) 100000 47.43 (-0.20)          Alan Kim (AKIM) 9011 33.74 (+0.04)          The Fall Guy H$50 Put (FALGY.PU) 25000 4.25 (+0.03)          The Fall Guy H$50 Put (FALGY.PU) 25000 4.25 (+0.03)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4) 150000 134.33 (-0.53)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4) 150000 134.33 (-0.53)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 150000 119.81 (-0.67)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 150000 119.81 (-0.67)          Separate Rooms (SEPRM) 150000 5.81 (-0.19)          Star Trek Origin Story (TREK4) 3 69.93 (-0.13)          Kraven the Hunter (KRAVN) 24 108.00 (-0.11)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4) 34627 134.33 (-0.53)          Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's (DTMBD) 1858 1.19 (0.00)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4) 25000 134.33 (-0.53)          Cuckoo (CUCKO) 150000 5.76 (+0.07)          Cuckoo (CUCKO) 150000 5.76 (+0.07)          Star Trek Origin Story (TREK4) 25000 69.93 (-0.13)          Trap House (TRAPH) 25000 22.79 (+0.33)          Trap House (TRAPH) 25000 22.79 (+0.33)          The Second Act (SECAC) 150000 1.41 (-0.02)          Eleanor the Great (ELANO) 100000 8.62 (+0.03)          Apartment 7A (APT7A) 150000 7.87 (-0.21)          Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's (DTMBD) 150000 1.19 (0.00)          Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (BJON4) 150000 8.68 (+0.09)          Clue (CLUE) 100000 17.82 (+0.41)          Lips Like Sugar (LIPLS) 150000 11.57 (-0.37)          Separate Rooms (SEPRM) 150000 5.81 (-0.19)          Summer Camp (SUMCP) 10000 8.63 (+0.07)          Summer Camp (SUMCP) 10000 8.63 (+0.07)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 25000 18.74 (-0.07)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 150000 18.74 (-0.07)          Madden (MADEN) 323 30.80 (+0.17)          Apartment 7A (APT7A) 150000 7.87 (-0.21)          Apartment 7A (APT7A) 150000 7.87 (-0.21)