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Whisper Numbers: Newcomers look to break out

Four new films open in wide release this weekend as the summer movie season heats up ahead of the fourth of July.  Targeting different demographics, each film will get a healthy slice of the box office pie, but the biggest cut is likely to still belong to Brave [BRAVE]. The Pixar animated film enjoys good word of mouth and should trail off a little over 40% to around $38 million, which should be enough to hold off the newcomers.

Family Guy creator Seth McFarlane makes his directorial debut on Ted [TED] where he also plays a CG teddy bear opposite Mark Wahlberg [MWAHL]. The R-rated comedy is tracking strongly with young men and Universal moved up its release date when the G.I. Joe sequel decamped to 2013. With jokes in the same vein of Family Guy but much more ribald, Ted delivers a fresh concept that should have plenty of McFarlane fans lining up. Stuffing into 3239 theaters, Ted may bear around $30 million.

Channing Tatum [CTATU] relives his early days as a stripper in Magic Mike [MGCMK]. Directed by Steven Soderbergh [SSODE], the R-rated film has earned great reviews, which will ease the mind of those embarrassed about the subject matter.   In fact, Magic Mike is leading advance ticket sales for the weekend as groups of women prepare for their event movie of the summer. The attractive cast should also appeal to men, gay and straight. Taking off in 2930 theaters, Magic Mike may bare $27 million and possibly much more.

Tyler Perry [TPERR] once again plays his popular grandma character in Madea’s Witness Protection Program [MADWP]. Although his African-American female fanbase has been reliable, his box office take has been trending downward. Perry’s last film Good Deeds opened to just $15.6 million in February, while his last cross-dressed outing Madea’s Big Happy Family opened to $25.1 million in 2011.  Madea’s Witness Protection Program is his first film opening in the competitive summer season.  Appearing in 2161 theaters, Madea’s Witness Protection Program may uncover $24 million.

After six weeks of limited release, Moonrise Kingdom [MNRSK] expands wide into 854 theaters. The Fox Searchlight comedy has been doing brisk business in big cities and should continue to attract fans of director Wes Anderson [WANDE] in new markets. Moonrise Kingdom could stake out $6 million.

Disney targets adults looking for an alternative with DreamWorks’ People Like Us [PLKUS]. Chris Pine [CPINE] and Elizabeth Banks [EBANK] play siblings who meet for the first time. Unfortunately, the PG-13 rated drama faces much competition from Magic Mike for the ladies to Moonrise Kingdom for hipster couples. People Like Us may take in just $5 million from 2055 locations.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.


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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 28, 2012 @ 04:58 PM        6868 views

Recent Comments

Saturday, June 30 at 12:25 PM Pacific
Just saw Ted. Way better than critics suggested. Hilarious and audience laughed out loud many times.

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