- Weekend wrap: Paranormal popped, Saw lost bite. We had thought our weekend estimates were exceptionally conservative, but that proved not to be the case. Box office receipts for the top 12 movies over the Oct. 23 – 25 weekend, the 43rd of the theater year, fell 8.4% year-over-year to $109.9 million, $5.0 million above our estimate for a 12.6% decline, according to preliminary data from boxofficemojo.com. Paramount’s low budget Paranormal Activity [PNACT] performed well, coming in first with $22 million, $5.5 million above our estimate. The film expanded to 1,800 theaters over the weekend from 760, and receipts rose 12%. However, Saw VI [SAW6], the Lionsgate R-rated horror movie, proved toothless, ranking second with only $14.8 million in its opening weekend, less than half of the last installment, and the lowest weekend debut ever for the franchise. The result was $2.5 million above our estimate, which we had thought was overly conservative. Where the Wild Things Are [WILD] placed third with $14.4 million in its second weekend, $3.5 million below our estimate. The movie fell more than we expected, even though it is a family film, a genre that would normally hold up better. Astro Boy [ASBOY], a 3-D PG-rated Summit Entertainment animated movie, came in fifth with only $7 million in its opening weekend, $5.6 million below our estimate, which was extrapolated from HSX.
- Next week, Michael could beat it. For next weekend, we estimate that the top 12 movies will decline 1% year-over-year to $73.3 million. Our estimate for Michael Jackson’s This Is It [JACKO], which debuts on Wednesday, October 28, looks beatable. Based on HSX extrapolations, we assume the film pulls in $19.3 million in its first weekend, pacing toward a $65 million total domestic box office run over several weeks rather than the brief two-week run currently scheduled. But influential Hollywood blogger Nikke Finke has predicted a first five-day global total box office potential of $250 million. We have Paranormal Activity ranking second with $10.1 million in its sixth weekend. We see Where the Wild Things Are ranking third with $7.5 million in its third weekend. The top release last year was High School Musical 3: Senior Year, with $15.3 million in its second weekend. We forecast a 7.4% year-over-year decline in total receipts for theater week 44, ending November 5.
- Updating 4Q09 box office estimates. Our 4Q09 calendar domestic box office growth estimate rises slightly to 9.1%, from 9.0% previously. Quarter-to-date (Oct. 1 – Oct. 25), box office is up 11% to $588.7 million, accounting for 23% of our overall box office estimate for calendar 4Q09. Our industry box office estimates argue for moderate upside to our 4Q09 estimates for theater companies Cinemark and Regal Entertainment.
Tag(s): PNACT, SAW6, WILD, ASBOY, JACKO