- Despite hype, Michael Jackson’s This Is It [JACKO] was only in-line. Various reports had concert promoter AEG estimating that Michael Jackson’s This Is It could pull in $250M in its first five days globally. Instead, the tally was only $101M, mainly outside the U.S. The domestic cume to date is only $32.5M, of which the $21.3M of receipts over the weekend were only $2.0M above our HSX-based estimate, which we had seen as very conservative and beatable. As we expected, Sony plans to run the film longer than the two weeks initially announced, saying it will play through Thanksgiving.
- Paranormal Activity [PNACT] drove weekend upside. Box office receipts for the top 12 movies over the Oct. 30 – Nov. 1 weekend, the 44th of the theater year, rose 7.3% year-over-year to $79.4 million, $8.8 million above our estimate for a 4.5% decline, according to preliminary data from boxofficemojo.com. In the weekend Halloween fell on Saturday, versus the year-ago period when Halloween was on a Friday, making the weekends comparable, as holiday festivities reduce movie attendance. This Is It placed first. Paramount’s Paranormal Activity placed second, holding up much better than we expected, with $16.5 million of receipts, $6.4 million above our estimate.
- A Christmas Carol [CAROL], a big, 3-D event film, opens next weekend. Next weekend, the 45th release week of 2009, we estimate that box office for the top 12 movies will rise 1.8% year-over-year to $130.0 million. The highlight for the weekend will be the opening of Disney’s A Christmas Carol, a 3-D, stop motion remake of the Dickens classic directed by Robert Zemeckis, who also directed Polar Express and Beowulf, with Jim Carrey voicing Scrooge and the ghosts who haunt him. We have The Men Who Stare at Goats [MGOAT], an Overture comedy starring George Clooney, Jeff Bridges and Ewan McGregor, ranking second with $17.2 million in its opening weekend. We see Michael Jackson’s This Is It ranking third with $12.2 million in its second weekend. The top release last year was Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, with $63.1 million in its opening weekend. We forecast a 0.3% year-over-year decline in total receipts for theater week 45, ending November 12.
- Updating 4Q09 box office estimates. Our 4Q09 calendar domestic box office growth estimate rises slightly to 9.9%, from 9.1% previously. Quarter-to-date (Oct. 1 – Nov. 1), box office is up 9.4% to $714.0 million, according to boxofficemojo.com, accounting for 27.7% of our overall box office estimate for calendar 4Q09. Our industry box office estimates suggest moderate upside to our 4Q09 estimates for theater companies Cinemark and Regal Entertainment.
Tag(s): JACKO, PNACT, CAROL, MGOAT