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Whisper Numbers: Is Avatar about to change the course of movies?

Twelve years after directing his last feature film Titanic, the self-proclaimed ‘King of the World’ James Cameron [JCAME] is back to reclaim his throne with the sci-fi adventure Avatar [AVATR].  Using state-of-the-art 3D and performance capture technology, Cameron has created a world that seamlessly merged live-action with CG animation.   Although the trailers were initially met with skepticism, the finished film has garnered overwhelming positive, glowing reviews.  The film that set out to be an industry “game changer” has actually met the lofty expectation.  Fox marketing has been in overdrive positioning the $400 million movie as a must-experience 3D event. The buzz will only grow as the first midnight screenings let out.  I Am Legend’s December record of $77.2 million may be at risk.  The higher 3D ticket prices should compensate for the longer 160 minutes running time.  Descending upon 3453 theaters, Avatar could blow away $80 million.

Disney’s G-rated animated musical The Princess and the Frog [FROGP] should display long legs at the box office with the upcoming school break for the holidays.   A decay around 25% would give The Princess and the Frog $18 million and second place.

Sarah Jessica Parker [SJPAR] and Hugh Grant [HGRAN] pair up for the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? [MRGNS].   The film’s target demographic may be more interesting in shopping on the last weekend before Christmas than checking out yet another story about city slickers in the boondocks discovering themselves.  Opening in 2718 theaters, the Morgans may settle down with roughly $11 million.

Despite the A-list talent involved with Invictus [INVIC], American moviegoers were apparently not too interested in South African politics or the sport of Rugby.   The film’s older target audience may be waiting on reviews, which are generally favorable. In its sophomore frame, Invictus may decline around 30% to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): JCAME, AVATR, FROGP, SJPAR, HGRAN, MRGNS, INVIC

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2009 @ 04:08 PM 4029 views

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Obsession $150M Blockbuster Warr (OBSSN.BW) 25000 6.97 (+0.07)          Peddi (PEDDI) 40 4.88 (0.00)          Cry to Heaven (CRYTH) 150000 10.51 (-0.06)          Michael $285M Blockbuster Warran (MJACK.BW) 25000 14.53 (+0.15)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 150000 5.11 (-0.08)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 150000 5.11 (-0.08)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 100 304.78 (0.00)          Moana (MOAN1) 100 242.04 (-0.16)          The Furious (FURIS) 14361 4.55 (0.00)          The Simpsons Movie 2 (SIMP2) 67422 166.07 (+0.66)          Minions & Monsters (MNIO3) 100 317.93 (0.00)          Leviticus (LEVIT) 100 6.94 (+0.07)          Street Fighter (STFTR) 149999 79.99 (+0.24)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 50000 5.11 (-0.08)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 50000 5.11 (-0.08)          Jackass: Best and Last (JCKA6) 100 44.77 (0.00)          In the Hand of Dante (ITHOD) 100 1.85 (0.00)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 40 78.33 (+0.84)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 2871 5.11 (-0.08)          Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity (GDCSP) 100 9.43 (0.00)          Pressure (PRSUR) 150000 15.40 (+0.33)          Pressure (PRSUR) 150000 15.40 (+0.33)          Dinner With Audrey (DWAUD) 150000 4.80 (+0.59)          Dinner With Audrey (DWAUD) 150000 4.80 (+0.59)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 150000 78.33 (+0.84)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 150000 78.33 (+0.84)          Evil Dead Burn (EVLD6) 100 58.04 (0.00)          Backrooms (BACRM) 148000 155.10 (-0.12)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 10 50.34 (0.00)          Maserati: The Brothers (MASER) 2500 4.55 (-0.01)          Maserati: The Brothers (MASER) 2500 4.55 (-0.01)          Chum (CHUM) 10 0.66 (0.00)          The Simpsons Movie 2 (SIMP2) 80000 166.07 (+0.66)          The Breadwinner (BREDW) 100 17.42 (0.00)          Butterfly Jam (BFJAM) 100 1.40 (0.00)          Tom Holland (TOHOL) 25000 138.57 (+0.33)          Backrooms (BACRM) 100 155.10 (-0.12)          Flesh of the Gods (FLOTG) 5000 8.98 (-0.22)          Primetime (PRMTM) 5000 22.93 (-0.48)          Primetime (PRMTM) 2500 22.93 (-0.48)          Club Kid (CLUBK) 150000 13.35 (+0.61)          Club Kid (CLUBK) 150000 13.35 (+0.61)          It Ends (ITNDS) 10000 4.28 (-0.01)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 100000 140.04 (-0.22)          It Ends (ITNDS) 10000 4.28 (-0.01)          Man of Tomorrow (SPMOT) 143204 269.89 (-0.96)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 141 83.74 (0.00)          Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Mi (TSDCM) 150000 2.33 (0.00)          Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Mi (TSDCM) 150000 2.33 (0.00)          The Simpsons Movie 2 (SIMP2) 149999 166.07 (+0.66)