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Whisper Numbers: Is Avatar about to change the course of movies?

Twelve years after directing his last feature film Titanic, the self-proclaimed ‘King of the World’ James Cameron [JCAME] is back to reclaim his throne with the sci-fi adventure Avatar [AVATR].  Using state-of-the-art 3D and performance capture technology, Cameron has created a world that seamlessly merged live-action with CG animation.   Although the trailers were initially met with skepticism, the finished film has garnered overwhelming positive, glowing reviews.  The film that set out to be an industry “game changer” has actually met the lofty expectation.  Fox marketing has been in overdrive positioning the $400 million movie as a must-experience 3D event. The buzz will only grow as the first midnight screenings let out.  I Am Legend’s December record of $77.2 million may be at risk.  The higher 3D ticket prices should compensate for the longer 160 minutes running time.  Descending upon 3453 theaters, Avatar could blow away $80 million.

Disney’s G-rated animated musical The Princess and the Frog [FROGP] should display long legs at the box office with the upcoming school break for the holidays.   A decay around 25% would give The Princess and the Frog $18 million and second place.

Sarah Jessica Parker [SJPAR] and Hugh Grant [HGRAN] pair up for the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? [MRGNS].   The film’s target demographic may be more interesting in shopping on the last weekend before Christmas than checking out yet another story about city slickers in the boondocks discovering themselves.  Opening in 2718 theaters, the Morgans may settle down with roughly $11 million.

Despite the A-list talent involved with Invictus [INVIC], American moviegoers were apparently not too interested in South African politics or the sport of Rugby.   The film’s older target audience may be waiting on reviews, which are generally favorable. In its sophomore frame, Invictus may decline around 30% to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): JCAME, AVATR, FROGP, SJPAR, HGRAN, MRGNS, INVIC

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2009 @ 04:08 PM 3950 views

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Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 4133 362.45 (+0.76)          The Exorcist Film Directed by Mi (TEXO2) 45000 45.17 (+0.85)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 5000 43.90 (+6.06)          Dune: Part Three aka Dune: Messi (DUNE3) 2456 235.00 (+0.17)          Paris Paramount aka Untitled Nan (PRSPM) 150000 40.00 (0.00)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 43655 76.14 (-0.88)          Paris Paramount aka Untitled Nan (PRSPM) 150000 40.00 (0.00)          The Best is Yet to Come (TBYTC) 150000 14.19 (+1.35)          The Face of Horror (FCOHR) 150000 11.45 (+0.34)          The Face of Horror (FCOHR) 150000 11.45 (+0.34)          Paris Paramount aka Untitled Nan (PRSPM) 50000 40.00 (0.00)          The Exorcist Film Directed by Mi (TEXO2) 45000 45.17 (+0.85)          Paris Paramount aka Untitled Nan (PRSPM) 150000 40.00 (0.00)          Paris Paramount aka Untitled Nan (PRSPM) 150000 40.00 (0.00)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 150000 34.40 (-1.15)          I Can Only Imagine 2 (ICOI2) 150000 32.59 (-2.13)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 150000 43.90 (+6.06)          Paris Paramount aka Untitled Nan (PRSPM) 150000 40.00 (0.00)          Snoop Dogg Biopic (SNOOP) 150000 23.53 (-0.10)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 150000 43.90 (+6.06)          Scream 7 (SCRM7) 111 88.74 (+1.99)          Paris Paramount aka Untitled Nan (PRSPM) 150000 40.00 (0.00)          How to Make a Killing (HNGTN) 150000 10.76 (-1.14)          How to Make a Killing (HNGTN) 75000 10.76 (-1.14)          How to Make a Killing (HNGTN) 1 10.76 (-1.14)          Scream 7 (SCRM7) 54031 88.74 (+1.99)          I Can Only Imagine 2 (ICOI2) 150000 32.59 (-2.13)          Paris Paramount aka Untitled Nan (PRSPM) 150000 40.00 (0.00)          I Can Only Imagine 2 (ICOI2) 150000 32.59 (-2.13)          Paris Paramount aka Untitled Nan (PRSPM) 106420 40.00 (0.00)          Timothee Chalamet (TCHAL) 10220 129.67 (+0.46)          Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mu (TMNT4) 150000 71.72 (+1.88)          From the World of John Wick: Cai (FJWCN) 77873 38.06 (+0.01)          Remain (REMAN) 50000 63.30 (+0.14)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 150000 76.14 (-0.88)          Send Help (SENDH) 150000 52.40 (+0.02)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 90000 43.90 (+6.06)          Hoppers H$50 Call (HOPPR.CA) 25000 2.86 (+0.13)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 150000 43.90 (+6.06)          Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty! (HCSYB) 150000 1.69 (-0.31)          Bedford Park (BEDFP) 150000 1.82 (-0.18)          Leviticus (LEVIT) 150000 6.56 (+1.23)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 150000 34.40 (-1.15)          Exit 8 (EXIT8) 150000 1.95 (+0.07)          The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 20000 76.14 (+0.50)          Hoppers - Opening Weekend (HOPPR.OW) 10000 51.86 (-0.48)          Reminders of Him (RMNDH) 150000 24.23 (+0.15)          Hoppers H$50 Put (HOPPR.PU) 25000 1.44 (-0.13)          Hoppers H$50 Call (HOPPR.CA) 25000 2.86 (+0.13)          The Bride! - Opening Weekend (BRIDE.OW) 100000 14.62 (+0.16)