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Whisper Numbers: Is Avatar about to change the course of movies?

Twelve years after directing his last feature film Titanic, the self-proclaimed ‘King of the World’ James Cameron [JCAME] is back to reclaim his throne with the sci-fi adventure Avatar [AVATR].  Using state-of-the-art 3D and performance capture technology, Cameron has created a world that seamlessly merged live-action with CG animation.   Although the trailers were initially met with skepticism, the finished film has garnered overwhelming positive, glowing reviews.  The film that set out to be an industry “game changer” has actually met the lofty expectation.  Fox marketing has been in overdrive positioning the $400 million movie as a must-experience 3D event. The buzz will only grow as the first midnight screenings let out.  I Am Legend’s December record of $77.2 million may be at risk.  The higher 3D ticket prices should compensate for the longer 160 minutes running time.  Descending upon 3453 theaters, Avatar could blow away $80 million.

Disney’s G-rated animated musical The Princess and the Frog [FROGP] should display long legs at the box office with the upcoming school break for the holidays.   A decay around 25% would give The Princess and the Frog $18 million and second place.

Sarah Jessica Parker [SJPAR] and Hugh Grant [HGRAN] pair up for the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? [MRGNS].   The film’s target demographic may be more interesting in shopping on the last weekend before Christmas than checking out yet another story about city slickers in the boondocks discovering themselves.  Opening in 2718 theaters, the Morgans may settle down with roughly $11 million.

Despite the A-list talent involved with Invictus [INVIC], American moviegoers were apparently not too interested in South African politics or the sport of Rugby.   The film’s older target audience may be waiting on reviews, which are generally favorable. In its sophomore frame, Invictus may decline around 30% to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): JCAME, AVATR, FROGP, SJPAR, HGRAN, MRGNS, INVIC

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2009 @ 04:08 PM 3647 views

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Mackenzie Davis (MCDAV) 35 76.33 (-0.50)          Elio (ELIO) 25000 116.39 (-1.26)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 3336 124.08 (-2.36)          Ben Stiller (BSTIL) 8 49.73 (-0.33)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 150000 17.28 (+1.18)          Speak No Evil (SPNOE) 75000 39.96 (-0.75)          Anne Hathaway (AHATH) 8 12.82 (-0.10)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 150000 124.08 (-2.36)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 50000 124.08 (-2.36)          Ryan Gosling (RGOSL) 14 108.97 (-1.33)          Danny Ramirez (DARAM) 25000 97.53 (-0.50)          Claire Foy (CFOY) 21 14.73 (-0.30)          The Listener (LSTNR) 150000 0.03 (0.00)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 150000 124.08 (-2.36)          The Listener (LSTNR) 150000 0.03 (0.00)          Playdate (PLYDT) 45000 16.13 (-0.27)          Pom Klementieff (PKLEM) 3 190.99 (+0.50)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 40000 124.08 (-2.36)          Cate Blanchett (CBLAN) 3 58.92 (+0.16)          Maggie Smith (MSMTH) 4 38.30 (+0.12)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Back to Black (BTBLK) 125000 20.99 (-0.58)          Rachel Brosnahan (RBROS) 4 31.47 (+0.12)          Emily Blunt (EBLUN) 5 138.09 (+0.66)          Freaky Friday 2 (FREK2) 74999 54.58 (+2.31)          Jaume Collet-Serra (JCSER) 6 91.58 (+0.50)          Bingbing Fan (FBING) 14 100.18 (+1.25)          The Down Under Fund (AUSIE) 3 90.10 (-0.12)          M3GAN 2.0 (M3GA2) 1 70.29 (-0.49)          Peter Dinklage (PDINK) 25000 73.39 (+0.75)          M3GAN 2.0 (M3GA2) 95000 70.29 (-0.49)          Vanessa Hudgens (VHUDG) 25000 50.00 (+0.33)          Aang: The Last Airbender (ATLA1) 1 44.26 (-0.25)          Aang: The Last Airbender (ATLA1) 1 44.26 (-0.25)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Rumours (RUMRS) 1 6.84 (+0.06)          Madden (MADEN) 488 25.00 (0.00)          Rumours (RUMRS) 75000 6.84 (+0.06)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 10000 19.17 (-0.13)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 1 19.17 (-0.13)          A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (ABBBJ) 5 38.89 (-0.19)          The Aliens Are Stealing Our Weed (AASOW) 20 0.55 (+0.01)          Boy Kills World (BOYKW) 50000 7.60 (-0.64)          Freaky Friday 2 (FREK2) 5000 54.58 (+2.31)          The Six Billion Dollar Man (6MILL) 3 21.53 (+0.02)          Boy Kills World (BOYKW) 150000 7.60 (-0.64)          28 Years Later (28LT3) 45 53.74 (+2.13)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 25.00 (0.00)