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Whisper Numbers: Will Iron Man 2 beat The Dark Knight?

The 2010 summer movie season blasts off with the return of a Marvel Comic superhero in Iron Man 2 [IRNM2].  Robert Downey Jr. [RDOWN] returns as the man in the iron suit, Tony Stark, along with Gwenyth Paltrow [GPALT] as Pepper Potts. Don Cheadle [DCHEA] takes over the role of James Rhodes, who suits up as War Machine. Also joining the cast are Mickey Rourke [MROUR], Sam Rockwell [SROCK] and Scarlett Johansson [SJOHA].  The first Iron Man opened at $102 million and was universally loved by audiences. With tremendous goodwill built up, the sequel will have more moviegoers feel the must-see urge opening weekend.  Trackings indicate the record $158 million debut set by The Dark Knight is within striking distance.  Iron Man 2 has already taken one record from The Dark Knight as the widest release ever at 4380 theaters.  Unlike The Dark Knight however, Iron Man 2 reviews are not as stellar as its predecessor.  Fortunately, the fan favorite is review-proof opening weekend.  With not even a romantic comedy counter-programmed as competition, Iron Man 2 has an open field to punch out $160 million. 

A Nightmare on Elm Street [NELMS] was heavily front-loaded on the Friday of its opening weekend.  The Friday the 13th reboot plummeted 80% in its second weekend last year.  A Nightmare on Elm Street could tumble more than 65% to $11 million.

How to Train Your Dragon looks to cross the $200 million mark with another $6 million in its 7th weekend of release.

Focus Features is opening the documentary Babies [BABIS] in 534 theaters to take advantage of Mother’s Day.  Babies could crack the top ten with around $3 million. 

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): IRNM2, RDOWN, GPALT, DCHEA, MROUR, SROCK, SJOHA, NELMS, BABIS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, May 6, 2010 @ 04:04 PM 3768 views

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1992 (42992) 2000 1.73 (-0.08)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 12000 28.55 (-1.74)          The Last Showgirl (TLSHG) 150000 4.73 (-0.02)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 999 28.55 (-1.74)          Oh, Canada (OCNDA) 150000 5.32 (-0.06)          The Naked Gun (NKGUN) 150000 34.41 (+0.08)          The Ballad of Wallis Island (TBOWI) 46000 5.40 (-0.41)          The Monkey (MONKY) 150000 19.03 (-2.09)          Civil War (CVLWR) 150000 61.77 (-0.25)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 974 19.46 (+0.51)          Challengers - Opening Weekend (CHALN.OW) 1500 11.55 (-0.59)          The Smashing Machine (SMACH) 52500 19.40 (-1.35)          The Monkey (MONKY) 25000 19.03 (-2.09)          The Monkey (MONKY) 75170 19.03 (-2.09)          They Follow aka It Follows 2 (TFLW2) 8505 15.86 (-0.08)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 72333 91.44 (+4.61)          Karate Kid (KKID2) 19000 102.13 (-0.49)          David Gordon Green (DGGRE) 25000 70.47 (-0.25)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4) 76319 135.12 (+1.25)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4) 112186 135.12 (+1.25)          Transformers 8 (TFRM8) 51861 93.74 (+0.42)          Josh O'Connor (JOOCO) 1000 7.75 (-0.05)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 15.90 (+0.90)          Playdate (PLYDT) 100 15.90 (+0.90)          The Smashing Machine (SMACH) 150000 19.40 (-1.35)          The Smashing Machine (SMACH) 150000 19.40 (-1.35)          The Smashing Machine (SMACH) 150000 19.40 (-1.35)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 150000 36.59 (-5.48)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 149999 36.59 (-5.48)          Honey Don't (HDONT) 44000 17.23 (+1.48)          Honey Don't (HDONT) 2000 17.23 (+1.48)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 9.25 (+0.33)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 9.25 (+0.33)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 25000 19.46 (+0.51)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 25000 19.46 (+0.51)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 25000 19.46 (+0.51)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 150000 28.55 (-1.74)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 150000 28.55 (-1.74)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 150000 13.54 (-1.46)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 150000 13.54 (-1.46)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 15.90 (+0.90)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 15.90 (+0.90)          Challengers (CHALN) 100000 31.55 (-0.41)          Michael (MJACK) 149999 62.51 (-0.49)          Transformers One (TFCYB) 100000 77.46 (-0.74)          The Monkey (MONKY) 150000 19.03 (-2.09)          Deadpool & Wolverine (DEAD3) 25000 375.56 (+1.32)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 49999 4.41 (+1.13)          Civil War (CVLWR) 17299 61.77 (-0.25)          With Love (WOLOV) 49999 25.73 (+1.22)