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I'm thinking there's going to be a lot of disappointed people come Sunday.
The 1st LOTR movies grew from the first to the last while this series appears to be shrinking. The first 2 hobbit films opened on Fridays to little or no competition opening against it (unless you count Madea's X-Mas). The BOM page theater estimate is listed as 3850+ which means it may open on less screens than the previous 2 installments and the Wed opening is sure to burn off weekend demand. The only positives I see is this is the last one and Warners is playing that up and the run time is 20 minutes less and theaters may be able to sneak in 1 more screening per day.
Personally, I think Warner Bros. is trying to milk Hobbit as much as they can... I'm thinking they've run their course... {nm} Dec 15, 08:49
Well yeah! What are they gonna do next? The Silmarillion? (link) Dec 15, 11:35
There's enough material in it he might be able to do 72 movies. If he had the rights. ;) {nm} Dec 15, 11:38
It's not the last we've heard of Tolkien. A British film, titled Tolkien & Lewis is in the works... Dec 15, 11:49
Lucky Muppet, message inside Dec 15, 19:49
Haha - thanks DT! Dec 16, 09:13
Oh gawd - remember before LOTR when we had Hobbit stock... Dec 15, 12:15
I'm thinking there's going to be a lot of disappointed people come Sunday. Dec 15, 09:01
It's Pump and Dump stock market rally. {nm} Dec 15, 09:36
Hobbit opens on Wed and gets 2 extra days of box office. {nm} Dec 15, 09:57
I'm more Bearish on this one, myself. Dec 15, 12:07
10M?! LOTR3 did 51 Wed/Thu + 72M Fri-Sun. LOTR2 did $40M + $62M. LOTR1 did $28 + $47M. {nm} Dec 15, 14:44
Yes they did. Hobbit opened to $84.5M 3-day, 2 opened to $73.5M 3-day. However... Dec 15, 16:58
It's not about being a bear or a bull, it's about whether your ratio is logical or just random darts. {nm} Dec 16, 09:08
Oh - and Pro Box Office has the long-range forecast at $68M opening, and there hasn't Dec 15, 17:02
65 - 3 day. (68 is old info) {nm} Dec 15, 17:47
Then a similar 60% ratio to your $62 Fri-Sun would be $37M Wed-Thu = $204. {nm} Dec 15, 18:01
Imma say $17M Wed/Thu + $49M Fri-Sun. And that's taking into consideration the 3/3 bump. Dec 15, 18:18
Your ratio is still not consistent with the past. A $49M weekend would mean ~$30M weekdays. {nm} Dec 16, 09:07
No, the trend was an $11M decline in weeklies per installment. {nm} Dec 16, 11:07
huh? You mean a $11M increase. {nm} Dec 16, 11:14
Damn! Read it backwards. {nm} Dec 16, 11:27
no I didn't, actually, I just said weeklies instead of installments... Dec 16, 12:09
That's WEEKEND. A 11% decline would mean $62M weekend with ~$37M. Now I'm just repeating myself. {nm} Dec 16, 12:40
Actually, average 37% of total 5-day in weekday numbers. Dec 16, 12:12
No, I'm refering to Wed-Thu/Fri-Sun ratio. So LOTR3 was 70%; LOTR2 65%; LOTR1 60%. Average is actually 65%. {nm} Dec 16, 12:43
you are saying xx% of the weekend numbers (65% of what the weekend did). I am saying Dec 16, 13:51
Reverse this: Weekdays = (weekend/.35 ((or .37)) Dec 16, 13:54
Screw it - I'm just making it more confusing. Dec 16, 15:01
They are absolutely comparable and gives us the best possible weekday to weekend ratios. {nm} Dec 16, 09:05
I think the last 2 Hobbit movies are better comparisons than the LOTR films. {nm} Dec 16, 10:48
Agreed, of course. Dec 16, 11:12
The last 2 Hobbits didn't open on Wed. {nm} Dec 16, 11:12