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Because the fan base shrank after the first one. I can easily ask why does this one expand? 1/2 Blood grew a little then the series fell

Posted by: Catzan on Jul 16, 16:28 in response to tradermark's post Why pigeon hole this as being like the others as to...

for Part 7a.  It is according to fans, an exciting conclusion. So you get a bump...to 500m, though??? I don't think so...but anyone can disagree and have a different conclusion. I am hearing of a typical Harry Potter Saturday drop off meaning it is frontloaded. Next weekend will tell more of the tale. 

Without seeing a lot more numbers, I am just gonna go with history. Dark Knight was an amazing combination of a high quality action film with Imax segments combined with an amazing performance by a deceased actor. If any film would attempt to approach that box office number in the next few years, it would be Harry Potter 8. But, I think the fan base has indicated its size via the previous films.  I think the drop for HP7 was steep...38% Saturday and 34% on Sunday. This one prolly does not drop as severely so it beats the 290m from HP7. I'll go with that.  But I can't see 500m domestic.

Anyone think HPOT8 can approach TDK's $533 million total gross? If it gets to $185-190, this weekend, it has a chance at $500 mill. {nm} broy7 Jul 16, 14:41

No...but it has a shot at the All-time Domestic BO top 10...needs to get to $404M to do it... {nm} RoBoGuru Jul 16, 14:47

Capt. America & Cowboys/Aliens aren't going to just roll over for Potter8...they ain't Winnie the Poo.... {nm} RoBoGuru Jul 16, 14:51

Competition seldom matters. The market responds elastically when there are good films to be seen, and it shrinks when there aren't. {nm} second gary Jul 16, 15:00

So do you think Potter8 gets to $500M? I don't....as I said, I think it has a shot at maybe Toy Story 3's $415M at best. {nm} RoBoGuru Jul 16, 15:18

I think 500mm will be well within reach. Went to an 11:20 show today,packed,not quite a sellout. tradermark Jul 16, 15:32

Those are fans. Fans make for a strong opening weekend. Unless they show up for repeat viewings every weekend, I think we see a significant Catzan Jul 16, 15:45

I can imagine people going back multiple times, though. Because they know it's their last chance and there's no more coming ... {nm} Jane_Citizen Jul 16, 17:48

I think it struggles to get to 400m. Harry Potter's gross between 320m and 250m. This has 3D and Imax...but is there reason beyond ticket Catzan Jul 16, 15:42

The fan base has grown. Even a casual movie fan has seen the earlier movies on TV. Being in the theater for this movie tradermark Jul 16, 15:54

I can tell you that at the theaters I talk to, business is brisk but not overwhelming. Some are even disappointed. Granted, audiences will Catzan Jul 16, 16:34

Why pigeon hole this as being like the others as to gross? Seriosuly,none of the others were the end of the story. {nm} tradermark Jul 16, 15:56

multi-billion dollar franchise....honestly think its the end of the story? alfpaul Jul 16, 16:27

Because the fan base shrank after the first one. I can easily ask why does this one expand? 1/2 Blood grew a little then the series fell Catzan Jul 16, 16:28

Theater was packed today and as i said in another post the lobby was full with people seeing other screenings of it. There did not seem to tradermark Jul 16, 16:36

I'm with you on this one Catzan & I'm a Potter fan that plans on seeing HP8 a few more times in theaters...the top grossing HP was the 1st {nm} RoBoGuru Jul 16, 20:10

the last will surely become the top Potter pic, but outside of some returning fans and some new, none of the other movies could top the 1st {nm} RoBoGuru Jul 16, 20:13

...I don't see how this one does what the other 6 failed to do to the tune of +$185M in BO that #1 did...that's the only way to get to $500M {nm} RoBoGuru Jul 16, 20:18

The most important factor, I think, is an intangible: since it is the end of a series, like LRDR3 or STRW3, how often will HPOT8's fans... second gary Jul 16, 16:36

Unless they pull a George Lucas and do remastered rereleases in 10 years or something. This is it. Last chance Dorfman Jul 16, 17:34

I dunno about 500m.. I think we need to see how the weekend ends and what kind of numbers are showing. But I agree its got a good shot at Dorfman Jul 16, 17:35





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