ANNOUNCEMENT: Blockbuster Warrants let you profit from the long-term box office success of the biggest movies.

HSX Forums: Movies Board






lol similar to my play. long on OW and long on put

Posted by: thatpj (a.k.a del_GSS_thatpj) on May 25, 14:41 in response to gogreenytd's post I flipen OW to long last minute and stayed short on the...

I think it is safe to say it will gross between 76-95M :) 

My estimate for MIB3 was $58MM for 4-day. I'm having real second thoughts after reading the comments below. Anyone else feel the same? {nm}   GMov on May 25, 14:30

No. Think it'll be ironic when the numbers come in. Y'all are a bunch of jittery mf's {nm}   lhayes37 on May 25, 14:32

It will be ironic if it underperforms, but even with an underperforming Fri the positive WOM may impact the 4-day. {nm}   KalElFan on May 25, 14:38

i dont think irony is involved here {nm}   forlorne on May 25, 14:49

Yes it is! {nm}   Alanis on May 25, 14:54

This deserved more love than it got {nm}   ShaneSpear on May 25, 16:05

ironic because y'all were down on it and thought it would bomb. now u guys like it, but it still bombs. {nm}   lhayes37 on May 25, 15:04

Will Smith and Bomb do not compute {nm}   thatpj on May 25, 15:32

7 pounds didn't do too well.. For MIB3.. It was expected to do more than 80M OW initially.. anything below that would be a bomb {nm}   karspov on May 25, 15:42

Seven Pounds was not a franchise summer blockbuster, it was Oscar bait. {nm}   thatpj on May 25, 16:08

So: You bet against Pacers beating Heat 4 of 7 because you think Pacers aren't good. Then you go see   forlorne on May 25, 15:44

It would be ironic if u then switched and bet IND to win the series, only to see MIA win. You'd have lost both bets. {nm}   lhayes37 on May 25, 15:53

It's irony in the ironic sense. {nm}   BionicMoron on May 25, 16:07

Think word of mouth would help later weekends. Can't imagine too many people were on the fence, either you were going this weekend or not. {nm}   ShaneSpear on May 25, 14:34

Not to be rude, but who gives an "F" if a couple isolated traders liked it. Nikki Finke has the final say, and that **** weighs in later. {nm}   lhayes37 on May 25, 14:37

My point is that people who were already not going to mib aren't going to be swayed by what they think are early pos "fanboy" reviews {nm}   ShaneSpear on May 25, 14:39

I concur! {nm}   lhayes37 on May 25, 14:40

I didn't know MIB had "fanboys" {nm}   thatpj on May 25, 14:42

I was not planning on seeing it this weekend, but positive reviews (especially Ebert calling it the best in the series) swayed me otherwise. {nm}   HurricaneKid on May 25, 14:47

Ebert is a has been. Pauper couldn't even keep his PBS show funded. I'm tired of his snarky ****. His post about Ryan Dunn after his death   lhayes37 on May 25, 15:06

What about the 105 other reviewers who liked it on RT? Are they has beens too? {nm}   Tanker on May 25, 15:16

I really don't think reviewers mean a damn thing. Maybe for movie like Marigold. But not for MIB3. {nm}   lhayes37 on May 25, 15:25

So it doesn't matter that reviewers like it, doesn't matter if the audience likes it? {nm}   Tanker on May 25, 15:31

That would seem to be the gist of it.. An odd analysis of the opening weekend imho. {nm}   Dave3626 on May 25, 15:43

Reviewers doesn't make up a core percentage of the audience cos they only male up a small portion of the audience {nm}   karspov on May 25, 15:46

WOM from audiences affects mainly the legs, seldom are too massive to affect OW immediately, so in both scenarios, it doesn't matter ;-) {nm}   karspov on May 25, 15:48

If reviews don't matter, though, why do studios shield certain stinkers from being reviewed? {nm}   Dave3626 on May 25, 15:51

Everyone want to protect their own child.. A higher review doesn't always translate to a great OW {nm}   karspov on May 25, 15:56

People trusts their own friends and those around more than some reviewers' comments {nm}   karspov on May 25, 15:58

Okay, if people trust the WOM of their friends, MIB3 has 84% fresh from the audience. FWIW, social media seems to be liking it right now. {nm}   Tanker on May 25, 16:02

Didn't ya hear? Sony planted the audience. Everyone that sees MIB this weekend is studio plant. {nm}   thatpj on May 25, 16:11

But studios don't see movies as children, they see them as possibly profitable enterprises that may lose some of that profit by way of a bad   Dave3626 on May 25, 16:00

Right on...way to hold down the fort there...alright sticking with the original hunch {nm}   GMov on May 25, 14:37

I flipen OW to long last minute and stayed short on the call....... Im just going with the flow on the stock. Matinees are going to be    gogreenytd on May 25, 14:38

lol similar to my play. long on OW and long on put   thatpj on May 25, 14:41

I was sposed to flip the OW to long...oops. Have the call long. If it opens below 80+, I'll be dissappointed.    Catzan on May 25, 14:49

If it opens above $60, I'll be suprised... {nm}   PRodNano on May 25, 15:50

Prepare yourself then. ;-)   Catzan on May 25, 15:59

Oh, catzo.... {nm}   Facto on May 25, 16:17





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

Cantor Exchange
The Gambler (GMBLR) 1 23.50 (+3.18)         Ghost Recon (GRCON) 20000 36.00 (+0.22)         The Gambler (GMBLR) 100000 23.50 (+3.18)         Pretty in Pink 2 (PINK2) 100000 0.54 (+0.46)         StarBonds Fund 23 (BONDS) 10000 20.31 (-0.02)         Wolves (SLTRD) 100000 0.48 (+0.46)         One Degree of Kevin Bacon Fund (BACON) 10000 20.74 (+0.05)         Sandman (SANDM) 30000 44.06 (+2.51)         Bloodsport (BLDSP) 100000 9.32 (-0.36)         Sandman (SANDM) 40000 44.06 (+2.51)         Pirates of the Caribbean 5 (PIRT5) 20000 79.99 (+1.24)         Big Hero 6 (BHERO) 99999 131.81 (-1.01)         Scarface (SCARF) 100000 24.33 (-2.41)         Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (TMNT1) 3000 90.21 (-0.30)         The Amazing Spider-Man 3 (SPID6) 100000 123.01 (+3.86)         Step Up: All In (STUP5) 99999 23.29 (-0.94)         Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 100000 37.95 (+5.05)         Get On Up (GSOUL) 5000 37.90 (+0.12)         Fifty Shades of Grey (50SHD) 100000 91.67 (+0.30)         Fifty Shades of Grey (50SHD) 100000 91.67 (+0.30)         Pawn Sacrifice (PAWNS) 100000 4.09 (-0.47)         Pawn Sacrifice (PAWNS) 100000 4.09 (-0.47)         Mark Wahlberg (MWAHL) 19999 99.93 (-1.02)         Sinister 2 (SINI2) 50058 24.79 (+0.27)         The Dark Tower (DRKTW) 100000 18.74 (-0.07)         Uncharted (UNCHT) 15000 30.39 (-2.04)         Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (APES2) 100000 187.67 (-0.64)         The Gambler (GMBLR) 100000 23.50 (+3.18)         Uncharted (UNCHT) 100000 30.39 (-2.04)         Sandman (SANDM) 100000 44.06 (+2.51)         Get On Up - Opening Weekend (GSOUL.OW) 7000 14.36 (-0.64)         The Karate Kid 2 (KKID2) 100000 21.66 (+1.40)         The Dark Tower (DRKTW) 100000 18.74 (-0.07)         Guardians of the Galaxy H$65 Cal (GOTGX.CA) 20000 2.11 (+0.11)         Guardians of the Galaxy H$65 Put (GOTGX.PU) 20000 2.08 (+0.08)         Get On Up H$15 Call (GSOUL.CA) 20000 2.07 (+0.07)         Joy (JOY) 100000 33.69 (0.00)         Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 100000 37.95 (+5.05)         The Amazing Spider-Man 3 (SPID6) 5000 123.01 (+3.86)         Get On Up H$15 Put (GSOUL.PU) 20000 2.09 (+0.09)         London Has Fallen (HFAL2) 100000 51.25 (-0.13)         The Fault in Our Stars $110M Blo (TFIOS.BW) 20000 11.31 (-0.06)         The Disappointments Room (DSPRM) 100000 11.18 (-0.62)         Caleb Landry Jones (CLJON) 19999 48.96 (-0.53)         Timeless (TMLES) 100000 4.53 (-0.66)         Cake (CAKE) 100000 6.38 (-0.04)         Guardians of the Galaxy - Openin (GOTGX.OW) 20539 65.36 (+0.36)         Good Kill aka Drones (DRONE) 100000 9.81 (-0.02)         Sandman (SANDM) 30462 44.06 (+2.51)         Pirates of the Caribbean 5 (PIRT5) 100000 79.99 (+1.24)