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lol similar to my play. long on OW and long on put

Posted by: thatpj (a.k.a del_GSS_thatpj) on May 25, 14:41 in response to gogreenytd's post I flipen OW to long last minute and stayed short on the...

I think it is safe to say it will gross between 76-95M :) 

My estimate for MIB3 was $58MM for 4-day. I'm having real second thoughts after reading the comments below. Anyone else feel the same? {nm}   GMov on May 25, 14:30

No. Think it'll be ironic when the numbers come in. Y'all are a bunch of jittery mf's {nm}   lhayes37 on May 25, 14:32

It will be ironic if it underperforms, but even with an underperforming Fri the positive WOM may impact the 4-day. {nm}   KalElFan on May 25, 14:38

i dont think irony is involved here {nm}   forlorne on May 25, 14:49

Yes it is! {nm}   Alanis on May 25, 14:54

This deserved more love than it got {nm}   ShaneSpear on May 25, 16:05

ironic because y'all were down on it and thought it would bomb. now u guys like it, but it still bombs. {nm}   lhayes37 on May 25, 15:04

Will Smith and Bomb do not compute {nm}   thatpj on May 25, 15:32

7 pounds didn't do too well.. For MIB3.. It was expected to do more than 80M OW initially.. anything below that would be a bomb {nm}   karspov on May 25, 15:42

Seven Pounds was not a franchise summer blockbuster, it was Oscar bait. {nm}   thatpj on May 25, 16:08

So: You bet against Pacers beating Heat 4 of 7 because you think Pacers aren't good. Then you go see   forlorne on May 25, 15:44

It would be ironic if u then switched and bet IND to win the series, only to see MIA win. You'd have lost both bets. {nm}   lhayes37 on May 25, 15:53

It's irony in the ironic sense. {nm}   BionicMoron on May 25, 16:07

Think word of mouth would help later weekends. Can't imagine too many people were on the fence, either you were going this weekend or not. {nm}   ShaneSpear on May 25, 14:34

Not to be rude, but who gives an "F" if a couple isolated traders liked it. Nikki Finke has the final say, and that **** weighs in later. {nm}   lhayes37 on May 25, 14:37

My point is that people who were already not going to mib aren't going to be swayed by what they think are early pos "fanboy" reviews {nm}   ShaneSpear on May 25, 14:39

I concur! {nm}   lhayes37 on May 25, 14:40

I didn't know MIB had "fanboys" {nm}   thatpj on May 25, 14:42

I was not planning on seeing it this weekend, but positive reviews (especially Ebert calling it the best in the series) swayed me otherwise. {nm}   HurricaneKid on May 25, 14:47

Ebert is a has been. Pauper couldn't even keep his PBS show funded. I'm tired of his snarky ****. His post about Ryan Dunn after his death   lhayes37 on May 25, 15:06

What about the 105 other reviewers who liked it on RT? Are they has beens too? {nm}   Tanker on May 25, 15:16

I really don't think reviewers mean a damn thing. Maybe for movie like Marigold. But not for MIB3. {nm}   lhayes37 on May 25, 15:25

So it doesn't matter that reviewers like it, doesn't matter if the audience likes it? {nm}   Tanker on May 25, 15:31

That would seem to be the gist of it.. An odd analysis of the opening weekend imho. {nm}   Dave3626 on May 25, 15:43

Reviewers doesn't make up a core percentage of the audience cos they only male up a small portion of the audience {nm}   karspov on May 25, 15:46

WOM from audiences affects mainly the legs, seldom are too massive to affect OW immediately, so in both scenarios, it doesn't matter ;-) {nm}   karspov on May 25, 15:48

If reviews don't matter, though, why do studios shield certain stinkers from being reviewed? {nm}   Dave3626 on May 25, 15:51

Everyone want to protect their own child.. A higher review doesn't always translate to a great OW {nm}   karspov on May 25, 15:56

People trusts their own friends and those around more than some reviewers' comments {nm}   karspov on May 25, 15:58

Okay, if people trust the WOM of their friends, MIB3 has 84% fresh from the audience. FWIW, social media seems to be liking it right now. {nm}   Tanker on May 25, 16:02

Didn't ya hear? Sony planted the audience. Everyone that sees MIB this weekend is studio plant. {nm}   thatpj on May 25, 16:11

But studios don't see movies as children, they see them as possibly profitable enterprises that may lose some of that profit by way of a bad   Dave3626 on May 25, 16:00

Right on...way to hold down the fort there...alright sticking with the original hunch {nm}   GMov on May 25, 14:37

I flipen OW to long last minute and stayed short on the call....... Im just going with the flow on the stock. Matinees are going to be    gogreenytd on May 25, 14:38

lol similar to my play. long on OW and long on put   thatpj on May 25, 14:41

I was sposed to flip the OW to long...oops. Have the call long. If it opens below 80+, I'll be dissappointed.    Catzan on May 25, 14:49

If it opens above $60, I'll be suprised... {nm}   PRodNano on May 25, 15:50

Prepare yourself then. ;-)   Catzan on May 25, 15:59

Oh, catzo.... {nm}   Facto on May 25, 16:17





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Guardians of the Galaxy - Openin (GOTGX.OW) 100000 80.42 (+5.35)         Get On Up - Opening Weekend (GSOUL.OW) 100000 14.09 (+0.35)         Get On Up (GSOUL) 100000 39.04 (+2.30)         Get On Up (GSOUL) 50000 39.04 (+2.30)         Guardians of the Galaxy - Openin (GOTGX.OW) 5976 80.42 (+5.35)         Demonic (HOHOR) 49999 19.92 (+10.98)         The Huntsman (SWHT2) 100000 40.87 (+3.54)         The Huntsman (SWHT2) 100000 40.87 (+3.54)         Toni Collette (TCOLL) 20000 22.65 (+1.68)         The Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 7701 154.16 (+7.64)         Stonehearst Asylum (ELIZG) 40000 2.01 (0.00)         Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles H$3 (TMNT1.PU) 20000 2.26 (+0.26)         Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles H$3 (TMNT1.CA) 20000 3.09 (+1.09)         Guardians of the Galaxy H$65 Cal (GOTGX.CA) 20000 7.88 (+1.82)         The Hundred-Foot Journey H$10 Pu (THFTJ.PU) 20000 2.36 (+0.36)         Guardians of the Galaxy - Openin (GOTGX.OW) 100000 80.42 (+5.35)         Guardians of the Galaxy H$65 Put (GOTGX.PU) 20000 0.82 (-0.26)         The Hundred-Foot Journey H$10 Ca (THFTJ.CA) 20000 2.46 (+0.46)         Guardians of the Galaxy - Openin (GOTGX.OW) 50000 80.42 (+5.35)         Step Up: All In H$10 Put (STUP5.PU) 20000 2.52 (+0.52)         Step Up: All In H$10 Call (STUP5.CA) 20000 1.28 (-0.72)         Guardians of the Galaxy (GOTGX) 50000 194.34 (+2.07)         Into the Storm H$15 Put (CATE6.PU) 20000 2.48 (+0.48)         Birdman (BIRDM) 100000 11.82 (+0.96)         Guardians of the Galaxy - Openin (GOTGX.OW) 100000 80.42 (+5.35)         Into the Storm H$15 Call (CATE6.CA) 20000 2.25 (+0.25)         4 Minute Mile (4MINM) 100000 1.25 (-0.02)         Get On Up H$15 Put (GSOUL.PU) 20000 2.74 (-0.11)         Get On Up H$15 Put (GSOUL.PU) 20000 2.74 (-0.11)         Get On Up - Opening Weekend (GSOUL.OW) 100000 14.09 (+0.35)         Get On Up - Opening Weekend (GSOUL.OW) 100000 14.09 (+0.35)         Gypsy (GYPSY) 99999 3.13 (+3.09)         Wish I Was Here (WIWH) 100000 5.49 (+1.84)         Vacation Friends (VACFR) 59000 20.00 (0.00)         Guardians of the Galaxy (GOTGX) 100000 194.34 (+2.07)         The Machine (TMCHN) 10000 8.41 (0.00)         Guardians of the Galaxy - Openin (GOTGX.OW) 100000 80.42 (+5.35)         Guardians of the Galaxy - Openin (GOTGX.OW) 100000 80.42 (+5.35)         Guardians of the Galaxy (GOTGX) 45357 194.34 (+2.07)         The Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 90 154.16 (+7.64)         XXX: The Return of Xander Cage (XXX3) 10000 27.46 (+2.27)         The SpongeBob Movie 2: Sponge Ou (SPBO2) 99999 43.70 (+4.65)         Austin Powers 4 (AUST4) 200 4.86 (+0.02)         Gypsy (GYPSY) 50000 3.13 (+3.09)         Kojak (KOJAK) 10000 17.84 (-0.09)         Adventures of Tintin 2 (TINT2) 683 8.83 (+0.02)         Channing Tatum (CTATU) 200 126.00 (+0.35)         The BFG (TBFG) 15000 54.82 (-3.03)         Guardians of the Galaxy (GOTGX) 100000 194.34 (+2.07)         Game Brain (GAMEB) 100000 25.78 (-0.25)