Movies

DL: GATSB FRI $13-16M / wknd high $40's - $50? Oleg Max May 10, 13:50

At a $16M Fri it would need a 3 multiple to make $48M. Sex and the City did a $26.7M Fri and had a 2.13 multiple. {nm} KalElFan May 10, 14:05

SATC is not a good comparison because it had fangirls from the TV series.. {nm} Antibody May 10, 14:09

how about THVOW? 15.3 / 41.3 = 2.7 IM {nm} Oleg Max May 10, 14:16

or MGCMK 19.37 / 39.13 = 2.02 Oleg Max May 10, 14:17

If the audience skews heavily female, chances are the IM will be lower than 2.7, right? Women not rushing out same night b/c of good WOM Facto May 10, 14:46

I think THVOW would be closer. SEXCT and MGCMK had low IMs because they were movies for women to see on Friday night with their friends. RogerMore May 10, 15:01

Leo, the book and movie have fangirls. Oleg points out MGCMK at 2.02. Gatsby will do higher, sure, but I doubt a 3 multiple. {nm} KalElFan May 10, 14:44

It's not the same following as one for the exact same property. {nm} Antibody May 10, 14:47

Shutter Island 14/41 = 2.9 {nm} Antibody May 10, 14:38

At 2.9 (> than The Vow), with a $16M Fri, it does $46.4M. For loftier expectations to be met, Nikki's sources need to be lowballing. {nm} KalElFan May 10, 14:50

You don't think they can make up 0.1? I'm sure they are examples of 3.0. {nm} Antibody May 10, 14:55

A +.1 is always easy, but we're using the top $16M and a high 3 to get to $48. If it's $14M x 2.7, it's only a $37.8M OW. {nm} KalElFan May 10, 15:14

Nikki's range is way lower than I expected for Fri after the midnight hype, but lowballing wouldn't surprise me. It's happened before. {nm} KalElFan May 10, 15:16

im thinking 16/20/12 for a total of $48m adrenalin112 May 10, 15:31

I'm thinking the estimate will go up since it should enjoy great night business; $3m midnight out of $16m Friday would mean xiayun May 10, 14:41

there were several attendees dressed up as roaring 20s folk last night so i voted for at least some frontload {nm} notfabio May 10, 14:53

Is this gonna be the case of the falling estimates? 3x doesn't make much sense. {nm} thatpj May 10, 14:51