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I'm torn. Emotionally, I feel like this is low. Comparing it to the last Mad Max, converting to today's $$ and increasing theatre counts
might be a worthwhile task before drawing a conclusion.
Disclaimer: I really want BO to be catastrophically wrong with their estimate. I really want MMAX4 to CRUSH the Box Office.
Having said that, let's look at some math.
A LONG time ago, MMAX3 released (1985) in 1475 theatres and made $7,283,714 OW.
If MMAX4 releases wider, the total OW would be much higher. So let's use 3600 theatres.
1475:3600 theatres is a 2.44 to 1 ratio. 2.44*MMAX3 OW = 17,772,262.16 in 1985 dollars. So this suggests that IF MMAX3 was released in the number of theatres that MMAX4 might be released in, it would have made 10.5 mil more (in 1985 dollars).
Converting to today's dollars (using BOM adjuster): Ticket prices in 1985 = $3.55. Tickets in 2015 = $8.30. That's a 2.338:1 ratio. Therefore, 17,772,262.16 in 1985 dollars would be 41,515,548.93 in 2015 dollars.
Adjusted for OW adjust of 2.7 = $112,189,182.11
This adjust would be accurate given the same audience as 1985. MUCH has changed since 1985. The franchise supporters (orignial audience) are in their 40's+. Some will see this movie, some will not. The total OW, IMHO, will be based on the #of theatres in release, the percent of previous viewers that return, and the number of new viewers attracted. IMAX will give a good boost because it will raise average ticket price. Advertising and theatre support will be key to this movie's OW success IMO. If the return viewers+new viewers = lower than 1985 and/or theatre count estimated in this example is higher than reality (ie it releases in 2000 theatres instead of 3600), then MMAX4 will open (and adjust) to a much lower number than I have calculated here.
Conclusion: given what we know right now, BO.com's estimate MIGHT seem a little low. On the other hand it might not be far off the mark.
DYODD and invest appropriately.
BO: Long range forecast: SCOPR NSID3 ENTOR Apr 11, 12:52
I was thinking a little higher for Mad Max. Does 38 seem a little low? {nm} Apr 11, 13:03
I'm torn. Emotionally, I feel like this is low. Comparing it to the last Mad Max, converting to today's $$ and increasing theatre counts Apr 11, 14:29
This is one of the funniest posts I've ever seen. (Please see video link inside for explanation) Apr 11, 21:20
SANDR seems low too.Lots of $ to be made if that turns to be accurate. {nm} Apr 11, 13:30
