Movies

Being a weekend with a holiday Monday, we're likely to see much higher than normal IMs, particularly for kid's movies.  In years past, when V-day is out of the picture, IMs for President's Day weekend tend to run from 3.5x-5.0x for the 3-day and 4.0x-6.5x for the 4-day (excluding openers, which are always lower).

Weekend 4:

RESE6 - $92k on Friday.  UNDW4 from a few years ago seems a reasonable comp (4.60x) - That would be a $26.43 delist. Say a $26.4-$26.5 range as this is not an exact science.

ADOGP - $1.4M Friday.  IMs for this one have been running higher than typical adult fare, but a tad bit lower than kids-only movies.  Staying a bit below the kids-only high end, figure something in the 5.75x-6.25x range.  That's $53.20- $53.90.

GOLDX - $13k Friday.  I'm actually surprised this one reported a daily number with it pretty much being done.  It's doesn't really matter what IM this one winds up with.  Anywhere within the wide range of possibilities leaves it within $0.02 plus or minus of $7.16 at delist.


Weekend 3:

RING3 - $630k Friday.  63% Friday to Friday drop should be mitigated a bit by a better than normal Sunday hold.  Figure a 50-55% drop for the 3-day.  Not bad considering it lost almost half its theaters this weekend.  Add in a decent Monday and its well on its way to a delist over $27.75.  While a 2.15x delist multiplier is not impressive by any means, it is better than I and many other would have predicted for this one.

LION - $1.01M Friday.  On its way to another weekend up from prior, or at worst down 5%.  Even if it falls off by 25% next weekend, it's still on pace to top $41 and if it continues to hold even-ish, $42 is not out of the picture.  I generally try to consider these without any reflection on current price, however, with a $33.25 cume through Friday this one is already ARB.

OUTTW - Did not report. Lost almost 90% of its theaters this weekend, so it's down to pennies the rest of the way.  It's a real possibility it winds up with a lower delist multiplier than RING3. Does it even make it to $8 by delist.

COMDN - Did not report. Lost almost 95% of its theaters this weekend.  This one is done.  Looks like a sub 1.9x delist mult.


Weekend 2:

LBATM - $7.56M Friday.  That's not a bad number at all, but it's also not a number that screams massive legs to me.  It should be good for a 30-35% drop for the 3-day.  Add in a big Monday and a little better than average mid-week numbers as at least some school district's have the week off and it's on its way to a delist multiplier around 3x (~$160). Good, certainly, but not great for a kids movie.  It's still early though.  Maybe it starts holding a bit better over the next two weekends as no competition of consequence opens - I'm not counting the R-rated LOGAN as competition.

WICK2 - $4.17M Friday.  Solid hold.  Should work out to a drop around 45% for the 3-day, give or take.  While that is not a recipe for a greater than 2.7 delist multiplier, it should be good enough for 2.4x - 2.5x, even with LOGAN hurting its 4th weekend.

50SH2 - $6.8M Friday.  One of the more surprising numbers in recent memory.  It's easy to look at the Friday to Friday and say "68% drop, it's dropping like a rock", but that misses the point.  Last week had big Thursday numbers included in the Friday total, and big first Friday business.  It dropped heavily on Saturday last week.  That is not going to be the case this week.  Saturday should be at or above the $6.8M Friday number, and Sunday is going to be a good day this weekend as well.  Even an IM below the normal range, say 3.4x, puts this at only a 50% drop.  Even if it craters with 70% drops the next 2 weekends, it still would delist over $110, roughly a 2.4x delist multiplier, which is stunning considering the first one's 1.86x delist multiplier.  A better holiday configuration for legs or not, it's still a surprising turn of events.