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Here's the solid case for a $480m-$500m delist:

Posted by: tomcat90 on Mar 20, 08:52 in response to tomcat90's post BTATB: "Coming in at just about $175m"

For a $480m-$500m delist, we'd need a 2.74 to 2.86 multiiplier. Here are 8 recent "family films", which include live-action and animated, and their delist multipliers:

ZOOTP: 3.21

NEMO2: 3.13

TROLL: 2.91

PETS: 2.84

LBATM: 2.81

JNGLB: 2.79

MALEF: 2.68

FBSTS: 2.67

The average for these 8 films btw is 2.88  

Then add into the mix that there is basically no competition in this genre for the entire 4-week run, save MMPR (currently priced at $81 and falling) and BOSSB ($75) and then perhaps FAST 8 in week 4, coupled with the "A" cinemascore, Emma Watson's 80+m instagram followers and great word-of-mouth, and IMO it's a no-brainer

So I predicted a delist of $425 (when the stock was $365) and now I'll officially bump it up to $480-$500

I welcome a discussion and feedback, unless you're a negative troll that also hated GETOU since $45 and LOGAN since $145  :)

 

BTATB: "Coming in at just about $175m" tomcat90 Mar 20, 08:32

Here's the solid case for a $480m-$500m delist: tomcat90 Mar 20, 08:52

Counterpoint - CINDE was released at the same time of year, had an A Cinemascore, held up well against its competition, etc. DM of 2.46. RogerMore Mar 20, 09:35

And take out TROLL which was November and PETS which was a summer original. {nm} Antibody Mar 20, 09:41

Let me start by saying that I truly appreciate the way you responded and always respect differing opinions when phrased like that! tomcat90 Mar 20, 09:44

On the otherhand, a built-in audience could also mean more likely chance of frontloading. {nm} Antibody Mar 20, 09:45

Yes, I agree, that is always a possibility. But what I saw at the multiplex was cross-generational. So we'll have to wait and see :) {nm} tomcat90 Mar 20, 09:47

Thanks for your analysis. See how it promotes positive discussion rather than negative discource. :) {nm} Antibody Mar 20, 09:52

Thanks Anti. i agree with you and I appreciate the job you do. It's time to bring this fun site into the positive. Keep up the good job :) {nm} tomcat90 Mar 20, 09:55

A couple more live-action remake comps: Alice in Wonderland 2.5 Oz 2.5 {nm} Antibody Mar 20, 09:59

Yes those comps are legit, but they were films that started off slow, like SING, and then built an audience. Hard to compare tomcat90 Mar 20, 10:10

The live-action remakes have a built-in audience so they make better comps than animated original films like SING, ZOOTP, PETS...etc. {nm} Antibody Mar 20, 10:16

Yes, agree, but there weren't to many of them. But JNGLB's 2.79 x 174.8 would still be $487.7m. And BTATB has more going for it :) {nm} tomcat90 Mar 20, 10:30

Excellent post providing your perspective. Wish we could get back to more discussions like this. {nm} RollingThunder Mar 20, 09:50

Thank you for saying that RT. So do I. I appreciate every differing opinion as long as it shows a modicum of respect. This forum lacks that {nm} tomcat90 Mar 20, 09:53

Looking at the Thursday to OW multipliers of this list, BTATB is the second most frontloaded shadowking Mar 20, 10:11

Yes Shadow, that is a distinct possibility. I know I'm giving a "better-than-average" scenario. My gut says close to $100m 2nd weekend. tomcat90 Mar 20, 10:18

good stuff tomcat. I'd say that it definitely does better than 2.46 from Cinderella, because the reception was far stronger. lobogotti Mar 20, 12:07

Thanks Lobo, I always respect your opinion. And yes, the weekdays are key. And haha, TFA in only 10 days. Unreal :) {nm} tomcat90 Mar 20, 12:24

I saw it as a date movie Sat, theater was packed. Same theater a 1:30pm showing today (Monday) with my five year old Machined2 Mar 20, 17:03





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