Long FUNYP & ANATC, Short COLCT

Posted by: john on Jul 31, 00:34 in response to MoneyMagnet's post GUT CHECK TIME! Long the FUNYP and ANATC, short COLCT

Funny People:  I think all the promotion this week makes 'Funny People' the choice for both the "thinking moviegoer" as well as "date night" and "apatow fans".  I think the laughs you'll get from the stars will outweigh the possibly heavy subject matter.  If there's a group that can make cancer funny, this might be it.  I predict a $30M+ opening.

Aliens In The Attic:  I looked at comparables from this summer and the lowest was G-Force with $41M.  If you take into account the kids who saw GF last weekend, the fact that it is summer and ridiculously hot in most parts of the country, short runtime, etc. it makes for a "sensible family flick" and it's wide release almost guarantees a $15M+ open (realize that's less than half what G-Force did).

The Collector:  I'm staying away from COLCT.  A $5M opening would put it just past it's current trading price of $13.49 (7-31-09, 12:30am PT).  Then I thought that even with that total, combined with it's low wide-release theater count (1,325) that whomever thinks "I'll see The Collector" will most likely seek out "Funny People" instead (teens, adults 18-49, apatow fans).  I predict a sub $5M opening weekend and a Monday dump session like no other.

LONG:  [FUNYP], [FUPCA], [ANATC], [ATCCA]

SHORT:  [COLCT], [FUPPU]

Tag(s): FUNYP, FUPCA, ANATC, ATCCA, COLCT, FUPPU