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Whisper Numbers: 'The Blind Side' should score the win in its third weekend.



The weekend after Thanksgiving is usually slow at the box office as audiences tighten their wallets after a weekend of holiday shopping.  Because of that, the four new wide releases offered are unlikely to challenge for the top spot.  After finishing second for two weeks, The Blind Side [BLDSD] is poised to claim the top spot. The success of the sports drama has been driven by moviegoers in small towns, rather than big cities, that identify with its message of family values.  The Blind Side should block out the competition with a weekend leading $27 million.

The Twilight Saga: New Moon [TWLI2] has proved to be massively front-loaded by its female fanbase.  Even with another big drop-off, New Moon should still finish in second with about $17 million.

Sony’s Armored [ARMRD] looks to have the most commercial appeal out of the new releases.  The male-skewing heist film features recognizable faces in Matt Dillon [MDILL], Columbus Short [CSHOR] and Laurence Fishburne [LFISH].  Locked into 1915 theaters, the PG-13 rated release may bank around $8 million.

Tobey Maguire [TMAGU] and Jake Gyllenhaal [JGYLL] star as Brothers [BRTHS] feuding over the same woman, played by Natalie Portman [NPORT].   Another R-rated drama about a veteran returning from war in Afghanistan may prove to be a hard sell to moviegoers.  The Lionsgate film could tally $7 million from 2088 locations.

Robert De Niro [RDENI] heads a dysfunctional family in the holiday comedy Everybody’s Fine [EBFIN].   Marketing has been almost non-existent on the PG-13 rated film as a result of regime change at the scaled back Miramax.   Opening in 2133 theaters, Everybody’s Fine may settle with just $4 million.

The R-rated comedy Translymania [TRSLM] is actually a sequel in the straight-to-video series Dorm Daze. The creators formed a new distribution company, Full Circle Releasing, and secured 1007 theaters.  Even with marketing support, the starless feature is unlikely to make more than $1.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): BLDSD, TWLI2, ARMRD, MDILL, CSHOR, LFISH, TMAGU, JGYLL, BRTHS, NPORT, RDENI, EBFIN, TRSLM

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 3, 2009 @ 03:30 PM        2729 views


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