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Conceding that "films with better reviews will have better word of mouth. Duh" is 50% of the way there, since better word of mouth leads to

Posted by: KalElFan (a.k.a del_TOM_KalElFan) on Apr 03, 16:36 in response to Antibody's post So CAPA2 has gone down from 92 to 89? What does that...

higher box office than bad word of mouth. The other 50% is recognizing that RT is a click away so requires no word of mouth at all. As for 88% where it is now vs. 92%, obviously that's a near-meaningless difference.

LAT: CAPA2 likely to generate $90 million or more, according to people who have seen pre-release audience surveys. Antibody Apr 03, 12:25

V: Captain America: The Winter Soldier targeting a projected $90 million bow or higher. Antibody Apr 03, 12:27

A 100+ OW would be great gift for a great movie like this I saw it again yesterday WOW {nm} gogreenytd Apr 03, 12:31

Well, the DL article with the Fandango comment (9 threads below) mentioned $80M-$85M+in its title. V also has $85M for "some" analysts... KalElFan Apr 03, 13:40

V: "Winter Soldier" should see a strong Friday-Saturday uptick, based on word-of-mouth and solid reviews. Pic has scored an 89% [RT]... {nm} KalElFan Apr 03, 13:05

unless you can quantify % uptick to RT %, it's still anecdotal. {nm} Antibody Apr 03, 13:12

As the straw man bar zooms off into the distance. Still awaiting proof of 0 correlation, when Deadline, V, that academic pdf last year, .. KalElFan Apr 03, 13:51

So CAPA2 has gone down from 92 to 89? What does that mean? Still waiting for something more substantial than the obvious Antibody Apr 03, 13:57

Conceding that "films with better reviews will have better word of mouth. Duh" is 50% of the way there, since better word of mouth leads to KalElFan Apr 03, 16:36

That's casual observation = anecdotal. The % number itself is still unquantifiable and meaningless. {nm} Antibody Apr 03, 16:46

You don't understand the different between anecdotal and factual. If you concede a correlation, you concede fact. Since there are so many KalElFan Apr 03, 16:54

Difference not different. :-) {nm} KalElFan Apr 03, 16:55

Yes, I know there's no formula, but you seem to believe there's one for RT%. You put way to much value in RT%. {nm} Antibody Apr 03, 17:05

No that's just you continuing to run from your assertion 1 1/2 pgs back that there was no correlation. The idea of a formula is absurd. {nm} KalElFan Apr 03, 18:17

You still haven't told us what the correlation is between RT% and opening weekend box office. Still waiting... {nm} Antibody Apr 04, 08:56

The burden is on you to show how RT% correlates to OW box office because you're the one who post RT%. {nm} Antibody Apr 03, 14:03

You've already backtracked and conceded now because you can't prove your statement there was no correlation. Meanwhile V, Deadline, THR, KalElFan Apr 03, 16:49

It's not backtracking or conceding, I'm saying that's all anecdotal. RogerMore showed below there's no relationship. Antibody Apr 03, 16:59

Even his quote you cited isn't that absolute, but mainly it was the same simple formula expectation problem and my response is below. As... KalElFan Apr 03, 18:59

Yes, small sample size, casual observation, no formula = anecdotal. The RT% is meaningless as a measurement of box office. Antibody Apr 04, 09:02

While I believe it will pull in more on Sat than Fri, I doubt it has much to do with WOM or the reviews, and if anyone... PlasticGoat Apr 03, 15:14