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Okay maybe we can all concede there's no magic formula then, so we shouldn't be looking for very simple relationships between RT and, say...
Saturday bumps. They just don't exist especially when all the RT scores are in the generally Fresh ballpark. It's understandable why someone might look at the THOR 2 highest bump, and think CapAm2 will manage the same or better. But something counterintuitive COULD happen here.
I noted your point about the Dark Knight's family appeal or relative lack thereof. Colorado may have also been a factor at the time. I'm wondering if the "Winter Soldier" and "Soldier" in particular might be a bit of a turn-off. Young girls (with some exceptions as there always are) may hate it for the most part, whereas maybe Thor they'd be more neutral. Likewise the first Cap may even have had greater appeal with the romance element and hunk factor in the ads/trailers. Soldiers and war and such with apparently not much else, not so much and parents likewise not seeing it the same way this time.
With the way things have gone since 9/11, maybe even boys and certainly many parents of boys may not want little Johnny getting into soldiers and wars and such, especially not present day. Let 'em be doctors and lawyers and such, not cowboys or soldiers. Captain America in a period piece about WWII as it was last time, maybe there was less negative connotation.
One wouldn't expect Lego numbers for matinees, but the ones I checked at that UltraAVX really are on the low side. I wonder if notfabio might have any opinion on that for his usual multiplex numbers when we get them later tonight.
LAT: CAPA2 likely to generate $90 million or more, according to people who have seen pre-release audience surveys. Apr 03, 12:25
V: Captain America: The Winter Soldier targeting a projected $90 million bow or higher. Apr 03, 12:27
A 100+ OW would be great gift for a great movie like this I saw it again yesterday WOW {nm} Apr 03, 12:31
unless you can quantify % uptick to RT %, it's still anecdotal. {nm} Apr 03, 13:12
So CAPA2 has gone down from 92 to 89? What does that mean? Still waiting for something more substantial than the obvious Apr 03, 13:57
That's casual observation = anecdotal. The % number itself is still unquantifiable and meaningless. {nm} Apr 03, 16:46
Difference not different. :-) {nm} Apr 03, 16:55
Yes, I know there's no formula, but you seem to believe there's one for RT%. You put way to much value in RT%. {nm} Apr 03, 17:05
You still haven't told us what the correlation is between RT% and opening weekend box office. Still waiting... {nm} Apr 04, 08:56
The burden is on you to show how RT% correlates to OW box office because you're the one who post RT%. {nm} Apr 03, 14:03
It's not backtracking or conceding, I'm saying that's all anecdotal. RogerMore showed below there's no relationship. Apr 03, 16:59
Yes, small sample size, casual observation, no formula = anecdotal. The RT% is meaningless as a measurement of box office. Apr 04, 09:02
While I believe it will pull in more on Sat than Fri, I doubt it has much to do with WOM or the reviews, and if anyone... Apr 03, 15:14
"I don't see much relationship between RT and the Fri-Sat bump" {nm} Apr 03, 16:50
It's pretty clear from my post that I don't believe there's a magic formula, so please stop making straw man arguments. {nm} Apr 03, 18:39
Okay maybe we can all concede there's no magic formula then, so we shouldn't be looking for very simple relationships between RT and, say... Apr 03, 19:35
LOL - talk about turning on a dime. (Also, Aurora was TDKR, not TDK) {nm} Apr 03, 20:34