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The last time a new no. 1 defeated the previous no. 1 by 45% was 1983, I think. But that win (for "Return of the Jedi") . . .
... was one marker, I think, of the move from an older model of distribution (long platform) to the current one (opening weekend is the peak), rather than a victory within the same, current model. Not impossible, but it just hasn't happened yet. I don't feel $200M is a done deal, for that matter.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/pastrecords.htm
Over/Under poll for STAR7 domestic opening weekend @ $300 Million {nm} Dec 01, 07:28
my guess...Over Dec 01, 07:28
To hit 300m all three weekend days would have to be bigger than the biggest summer Saturday ever, Dec 01, 08:20
It has an excellent chance at taking the best single December day record, I think. Dec 01, 08:46
I think it has a good chance as well. {nm} Dec 01, 09:00
Possibly... {nm} Dec 01, 09:52
Sunday might not hit 37, but Th, Fr and Sat should easily top it. {nm} Dec 01, 10:20
$300? No way, under. {nm} Dec 01, 07:32
Where did 300 million come from? I thought we were doing over/under on 200m. lol {nm} Dec 01, 07:34
I know!...would also make a great number for the OW warrant {nm} Dec 01, 09:10
under {nm} Dec 01, 09:10
under. {nm} Dec 01, 07:35
You'd have to reach 90% theater capacity to get to $300m when Avengers was was only around 60%. {nm} Dec 01, 07:40
people are saying that this thing might run 24 hours a day. did the avengers do that? {nm} Dec 01, 09:59
4 am shows a week before Christmas? Probably not worth paying the ticket-takers. {nm} Dec 01, 18:09
The 24-hour retrospective marathon is one thing. Running STAR7 24/7 is another. {nm} Dec 01, 18:19
Could we break that down by screen average? Even getting to $200mil requires nearly $50k per screen. {nm} Dec 01, 18:21
Divide $300mil by number of screens, and look at the per-screen average you're betting on. {nm} Dec 01, 18:22
Under. $300m is ridiculous. {nm} Dec 01, 07:43
Under...but I'd be happy to be wrong. {nm} Dec 01, 07:54
The last time a new no. 1 defeated the previous no. 1 by 45% was 1983, I think. But that win (for "Return of the Jedi") . . . Dec 01, 07:58
I remember seeing Jedi in the theater and it was at 90% {nm} Dec 01, 08:00
Not for every screening in every theater, though. {nm} Dec 01, 09:51
Under $200m {nm} Dec 01, 08:01
Brave but silly. Gonna miss you in the port value leagues. :) {nm} Dec 01, 15:07
Come on people... This one isnt that hard to predict : 272.7 m OW :-) {nm} Dec 01, 08:19
Under {nm} Dec 01, 08:25
Way Under. {nm} Dec 01, 08:41
Under, but not by much. {nm} Dec 01, 08:57
under {nm} Dec 01, 09:01
Unless the entire coast get a huge snowstorm effect box office {nm} Dec 01, 09:46
I'll be the first to say it Dec 01, 09:52
$325M Dec 01, 10:22
Would you reset your port if it doesn't open at $325M? {nm} Dec 01, 10:31
+1 {nm} Dec 01, 10:46
OK How about this..I will if it doesn't go over $300...but if it does go over $300 you reset yours? {nm} Dec 01, 12:31
I don't take bets as the moderator, but MattW has already agreed to reset his port if STAR7 opens above $200M. {nm} Dec 01, 12:39
Well there is your first "reset casualty" ...but I am interested in your guess? {nm} Dec 01, 12:46
You obviously don't know that my post is a joke. Dec 01, 10:43
+100000000 {nm} Dec 01, 10:51
Oooh interesting thought mike255, didn't think about the weather..... hmmmm.... under 200 million {nm} Dec 01, 10:06
So Mike says 255 ? Is That what he says ? I say Higher {nm} Dec 01, 10:25
I never Said 255 for Star Wars. {nm} Dec 01, 15:40
This is laughably high. Like, pee in a cup high. {nm} Dec 01, 11:10
Under, but think 250 is very feasible. {nm} Dec 01, 13:11
Under. {nm} Dec 01, 14:26
A shade under $300m {nm} Dec 01, 15:16
Under. {nm} Dec 01, 18:06