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Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other

Posted by: Roger More (a.k.a CaineFund) on Oct 24, 12:34 in response to Ruthian23's post The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word,...

predictors.

For example, it correctly predicted big adjusts up for PNAC3, TLK3D, HNOV2, FFUR5 and LMTLS and that the following movies would disappoint - SHK3D, WARIR, STRAW, IDKHS, BIGYR, PAND2, SCRM4, SUCKP, and GWRRH.

Most times where the rule is wrong, the OW is close to MTC's prediction.  Examples where the rule spectacularly missed the mark are RSAPE, IHOP which both adjusted up despite MTC being way lower than RS, and BMOM3, which adjusted down despite MTC being above RS.

Mtc 48 puss 13 time 9 rum 2.5 anonymous {nm} notfabio Oct 24, 11:42

Tagging MTC [PUSNB] [ANONM] [RUMDI] [NTIME] {nm} grammar Oct 24, 11:53

Thanks N. {nm} grammar Oct 24, 11:53

With the MTC/RS rule in effect... BionicMoron Oct 24, 11:54

What is the MTC/RS Effect? {nm} dioneta Oct 24, 12:08

The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word, as it's not always true, but for lack of a better word) is that... Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:16

also there is the mtc/rs corollary which states "whenever someone posts about the mtc/rs rule, someone will ask what the mtc/rs rule is" {nm} islander Oct 24, 12:18

Last time it was posted I was the one who asked, so maybe we can add that the one who just got it answered will be the one to explain next. {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:21

Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other Roger More Oct 24, 12:34

If MTC is well above RS, then the movie wil perform above even MTC. If MTC well less than RS the movie will perform even lower than MTC. {nm} BionicMoron Oct 24, 12:17

Couple of clarification questions on this: 1. What do we consider "well" above or below? 2.What % of the time would people say this "works?" {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:30

That's a grey area but I go with 25% {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 12:43

Thanks. Just one more clarification, with that number are you saying 25% more or less when it comes to the predictions (like a 50M Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:54

25% is the answer for question 1. :-) xiayun Oct 24, 13:08

Yes. Using the predictions for PNAC3 as an example, MTC was 38, RS was 30. RS*1.25=37.5<MTC {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 13:10

And to your second question (earlier) - it picks the direction of the adjust 65% of the time, up there with other strong predictors Roger More Oct 24, 13:14

Thanks. I know how annoying I have to be with all the questions, so I appreciate the patience. {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 13:16

It's not annoying. {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 13:24

Thanks for responses.. and good question Ruthian23 :) {nm} dioneta Oct 24, 12:44

Those are good numbers for Anonymous considering it is opening to limited release... {nm} b4bad Oct 24, 13:19





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Ryan's World the Movie: Titan Un (RYANW) 1 5.62 (-0.42)          Hiroyuki Sanada (HSANA) 2000 121.22 (+1.00)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 15000 85.29 (-2.07)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 15000 85.29 (-2.07)          Sally Hawkins (SHAWK) 25000 48.54 (+0.33)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4) 7000 141.34 (-1.18)          Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (HAIKY) 149998 11.12 (-0.09)          Sally Hawkins (SHAWK) 25000 48.54 (+0.33)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die (BADB4) 6000 133.51 (-1.22)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die (BADB4) 7000 133.51 (-1.22)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 50000 41.97 (+1.97)          Joan Chen (JCHEN) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Sight (SIGHT) 75000 7.93 (-0.16)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 149996 6.23 (-0.25)          Sight (SIGHT) 120000 7.93 (-0.16)          Jacob Batalon (JBATA) 6299 105.54 (+0.80)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 149998 6.23 (-0.25)          Ryan's World the Movie: Titan Un (RYANW) 149996 5.62 (-0.42)          A Life of Jesus (ALJES) 29999 19.38 (-0.13)          A Life of Jesus (ALJES) 25000 19.38 (-0.13)          IF (IMGNF) 10000 105.98 (-3.25)          Ryan's World the Movie: Titan Un (RYANW) 149998 5.62 (-0.42)          Pokemon: Detective Pikachu 2 (PIKA2) 15000 33.13 (-0.06)          Pokemon: Detective Pikachu 2 (PIKA2) 15000 33.13 (-0.06)          The Substance (SBSTN) 2 6.44 (-0.18)          Piece by Piece (PCBPC) 40000 15.12 (-0.06)          Edge of Tomorrow 2 aka Live, Die (EDGT2) 75000 16.40 (-0.04)          Edge of Tomorrow 2 aka Live, Die (EDGT2) 80000 16.40 (-0.04)          Days Gone (DAYSG) 15000 15.68 (-0.02)          Gary Oldman (GOLDM) 25000 75.49 (-0.25)          Gary Oldman (GOLDM) 1 75.49 (-0.25)          Never Let Go (MTHRL) 19999 18.93 (+0.02)          Megalopolis (MEGAL) 9999 27.67 (+0.05)          It Ends with Us (ITEND) 9999 38.13 (+0.07)          Gladiator II aka Gladiator 2 (GLAD2) 5000 171.86 (+0.20)          Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die (GLHFD) 29999 18.81 (+0.50)          Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die (GLHFD) 150000 18.81 (+0.50)          Twisters (TWIS2) 7000 162.01 (+0.84)          Twisters (TWIS2) 9000 162.01 (+0.84)          Die, My Love (DIMLV) 30000 8.54 (+1.48)          Die, My Love (DIMLV) 24999 8.54 (+1.48)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 100 298.85 (-1.74)          The Substance (SBSTN) 1 6.44 (-0.18)          Fast X Part 2 aka Fast & Furious (FAF11) 10 144.25 (-0.55)          Jacob Batalon (JBATA) 8701 105.54 (+0.80)          Avengers 5 (AVNG5) 100 345.50 (+0.86)          The Substance (SBSTN) 125000 6.44 (-0.18)          Stephanie Hsu (SHSU) 15000 76.86 (-0.15)          Spider-Man Untitled (SPID9) 99 308.33 (+0.30)          Avatar 3 (AVAT3) 10 417.47 (+0.06)