HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

lot of jumps in logic

Posted by: alfpaulytd2012 on Jun 06, 18:26 in response to elchan's post Yes, sometimes, I scare myself. Here's the logic:

assumption 1: People have to choose between MADG3 and PROME....that is incorrect. If I'm not into PROME I can go see MIB or SWHTM or TBEMH or MADG3 or not go to the movies at all.

assumption 2: If both movies are linked then the loss of one's share is the gain of the other's (ie 1+x=2 so x =1...or 0.8+x=2 so x=1.2)....given that assumption, its a zero-sum gain b/c one's loss is put in the other's tally and in fact you lose on commision on both ends to each of them

assumption 3: You're assuming they start out at equillibrium. They are priced according to HSX's trading market. HSX doesn't reflect total market shares for every movie out this week with relation to BO and its market pricing. Moviestocks get to where they are based on unscientific trading.

You assume a lot and all 3 assumptions do not apply to this game. There are other choices for the moviegoer in addition to not going at all so your assumptions....that's where I'll stop before I get flamed.

With so many billionaires, and near billionaires in this game, do little investors like myself really affect the game? {nm} elchan Jun 06, 13:55

Yes, because billionaires cannot buy more shares of a stock than you can. {nm} dioneta Jun 06, 14:02

True, but if you have enough money, you can buy more of different stock, and even play both side, short and long, on two related movies. {nm} elchan Jun 06, 15:19

Yes.. But they cannot affect individual stock movement more than you.. and you play "short" OR "long" not simultaneously {nm} dioneta Jun 06, 16:47

You can play short AND long. For instance I feel that MADG3 is too low, so play long and if I feel that MADG3 will take a bite elchan Jun 06, 17:44

? Paul2k Jun 06, 17:56

Yes, sometimes, I scare myself. Here's the logic: elchan Jun 06, 18:09

But they aren't dependent on each other like that. You're returning to your zero-sum supposition, which doesn't hold here. Paul2k Jun 06, 18:23

There's definitely a correlation in gross for a weekend between the grosses of movies opening the same weekend. elchan Jun 06, 18:34

Oh there is? Good luck finding that. I'm sure the movie studios and tracking firms and box office predictors would love to see your findings Paul2k Jun 06, 19:53

This is true. And I would take that approach in real life, since I want to be efficient and get my job done quickly. elchan Jun 07, 06:59

lot of jumps in logic alfpaulytd2012 Jun 06, 18:26

Wish it was all logic based, but we're talking consumer behaviour, and statistical analysis... elchan Jun 06, 18:49

see, that's where you always sound like such a noob alfpaulytd2012 Jun 06, 19:00

But I am a noob, not trying to hide anything. What about the post-AVNGR slump? elchan Jun 06, 19:18

*banging head on desk* {nm} Paul2k Jun 06, 19:55

Please, no need to hurt yourself over me. ;-) {nm} elchan Jun 06, 20:10

I'd argue the point but its kind of pointless alfpaulytd2012 Jun 06, 23:56

Come one guys, why so negative. This is a discussion board, and we are discussing things. I don't to claim that I know anything. elchan Jun 07, 06:45

elchan, there have been FAQs and tutorials put out by players on pretty much all aspects of HSX. There used to be a half dozen websites Paul2k Jun 07, 07:05

Thought that was what I was doing, asking question, through out some ideas, getting responses. elchan Jun 07, 07:58

I think initially, you came on a little strong and full of declarations, making it seem like you thought you knew everything, even if that Paul2k Jun 07, 09:00

it only happens when someone doesn't honestly have a question alfpaulytd2012 Jun 07, 09:55

Not to belabor a point, but stock performances are not linked in a zero sum fashion... even if you think they are. dioneta Jun 07, 10:21

I promise you that unless they inherited a port, every billionaire started off with a $2M just like you did. Tanker Jun 06, 14:04

Every investor is sacred, every investor is great islander Jun 06, 14:13

I know I am, but my who portfolio is probably what you would commission on a trade. ;-) {nm} elchan Jun 06, 15:20

Must be late on my payments, my ISP is skipping words and letters. {nm} elchan Jun 06, 15:34

That was a beautiful sentence. :) {nm} Paul2k Jun 06, 17:36

Duh, henglish, I lern good time. {nm} elchan Jun 06, 18:13

Easy for you to say. {nm} Tanker Jun 06, 17:40

Well, this is eye opening. Anyways, as I said I like playing this game, and enjoy coming up with my theories on how I think things can work elchan Jun 07, 11:59

if it's true that a trader has to keep discovering/shifting strategies as port size grows, then I don't think you have to worry about Dave3626 Jun 07, 15:59





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Metal Men (METAL) 149999 18.78 (+0.92)          Antarctica (ANTRC) 149999 15.72 (+0.80)          Cabrini (CABRI) 149999 21.10 (-0.18)          Untitled M. Night Shyamalan (GDGRD) 150000 27.18 (+1.02)          Untitled M. Night Shyamalan (GDGRD) 150000 27.18 (+1.02)          One Life (1LIFE) 150000 5.25 (-0.25)          One Life (1LIFE) 150000 5.25 (-0.25)          Metal Men (METAL) 150000 18.78 (+0.92)          Metal Men (METAL) 150000 18.78 (+0.92)          Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow (SUPGR) 150000 54.55 (-0.30)          Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (DENO2) 50000 10.16 (+0.33)          Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow (SUPGR) 150000 54.55 (-0.30)          High and Low (HILOW) 150000 22.84 (-0.71)          Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (DENO2) 50000 10.16 (+0.33)          Frozen III (FROZ3) 150000 292.91 (-0.79)          High and Low (HILOW) 150000 22.84 (-0.71)          Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (DENO2) 50000 10.16 (+0.33)          Rental Family (RNTLF) 150000 14.41 (-0.91)          Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (DENO2) 50000 10.16 (+0.33)          Rental Family (RNTLF) 150000 14.41 (-0.91)          Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (DENO2) 50000 10.16 (+0.33)          Robotech (RTECH) 150000 15.07 (-0.49)          Edge of Tomorrow 2 aka Live, Die (EDGT2) 150000 18.20 (-0.12)          Robotech (RTECH) 150000 15.07 (-0.49)          Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (DENO2) 50000 10.16 (+0.33)          Edge of Tomorrow 2 aka Live, Die (EDGT2) 150000 18.20 (-0.12)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 3995 133.84 (+0.06)          Untitled M. Night Shyamalan (GDGRD) 149999 27.18 (+1.02)          Untitled M. Night Shyamalan (GDGRD) 150000 27.18 (+1.02)          Metal Men (METAL) 150000 18.78 (+0.92)          Love Lies Bleeding (LBLED) 35000 7.52 (+0.40)          Metal Men (METAL) 150000 18.78 (+0.92)          Nick Robinson (NROBI) 9999 26.21 (+0.04)          Vicious (VICUS) 149999 18.35 (+0.66)          Antarctica (ANTRC) 150000 15.72 (+0.80)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 82 133.84 (+0.06)          Antarctica (ANTRC) 150000 15.72 (+0.80)          Blade (BLAD1) 5000 109.10 (-0.33)          Super Toys (SPTOY) 50000 19.90 (+0.02)          The Settlers (TSTLR) 150000 0.35 (+0.02)          A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (ABBBJ) 50000 35.51 (-0.43)          High and Low (HILOW) 150000 22.84 (-0.71)          High and Low (HILOW) 150000 22.84 (-0.71)          Eleanor the Great (ELANO) 50000 8.57 (-0.01)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 24669 133.84 (+0.06)          Frozen III (FROZ3) 149998 292.91 (-0.79)          Black Bag (BLCBG) 150000 20.78 (+0.22)          The Absence of Eden aka Keyhole (KHGRD) 150000 2.21 (-0.04)          Rental Family (RNTLF) 150000 14.41 (-0.91)          Frozen III (FROZ3) 10000 292.91 (-0.79)