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The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . .

Posted by: second gary (a.k.a 80181597) on Dec 27, 10:02 in response to Antibody's post The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38%...

... as 3.7M.  You could argue for calculating STAR7's second weekend drop at somewhere around 25%, i.e. (OW - previews) / second weekend.  But I brought AVATR as a "floor comp," because it was the biggest grossing December holiday performer we've had.  

Warning: this post contains an "if / then" statement on the STAR7 delist. second gary Dec 27, 09:31

The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38% while AVATR only dropped 1.8%. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 09:53

If I remember correctly, there was a big snowstorm that hit the northeast during Avatar's first weekend. {nm} fourstars Dec 27, 10:00

AVATR was a word of mouth smash. It had bad buzz going into opening weekend. There was no fanbase to frontload opening weekend. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:08

yep. a bunch of people who planned to go opening weekend couldn't do so and went the following weekend. {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 10:11

Have an excuse for its 9.4% drop from weekend 2 to weekend 3? {nm} benz0 Dec 27, 14:16

'cause people liked it a lot? why do you need an excuse? {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 18:31

+1 {nm} RamsFan2004 Dec 27, 19:20

The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . . second gary Dec 27, 10:02

The completely original AVATR is a "ceiling comp" for the sequel STAR7 with a built-in fanbase. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:03

I saw it this afternoon, and its ticketholder line-up (in suburban Toronto) had the strangest demographic mix I've ever seen. second gary Dec 27, 16:49

Based on this weekend's performance (stellar as it is), I am moving DOWN my delist calculation for STAR7. (no if / then clauses) Rocket123 aka PVL Admin Dec 27, 09:54

pretty cosistant over the weekend. all right around 50m. That % drop was off monster numbers. {nm} tradermark Dec 27, 09:56

Still over 800 delist based on my own calculations xiayun Dec 27, 10:07

I'm thinking delist would go around 830M. {nm} Filmstardust Dec 27, 12:52

I'm with you and xiayun, low 800's MattW Dec 27, 13:31

Weekdays this week will be much higher than 25 per day xiayun Dec 27, 15:13





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Megalopolis (MEGAL) 6600 26.84 (-0.03)          The Joy Luck Club 2 (TJLC2) 1000 14.41 (+0.02)          Rumours (RUMRS) 3000 6.59 (-0.13)          Chairman Spaceman (CSPCM) 100000 1.96 (0.00)          The Crow (TCROW) 2200 22.41 (-0.05)          Josh O'Connor (JOOCO) 25000 10.31 (+0.30)          White Bird (WHBRD) 4000 13.93 (-0.51)          The Killer's Game (KLRGM) 85914 6.62 (+0.01)          Desert Warrior (DSRTW) 1 2.16 (+0.01)          The Entertainment System Is Down (TESID) 85977 22.50 (+0.23)          Children of Blood and Bone (COBAB) 50000 9.08 (+0.05)          Orlando Bloom (OBLOO) 10008 95.87 (-0.35)          Return to Silent Hill (SHIL3) 1000 12.79 (+1.36)          Press Your Luck (PLUCK) 150000 8.00 (0.00)          The Strangers: Chapter 1 (STRN3) 150000 26.92 (-1.84)          Spellbound (SPLBN) 150000 1.64 (+0.02)          Rumours (RUMRS) 87000 6.59 (-0.13)          IF (IMGNF) 150000 111.53 (-2.14)          The Supremes at Earl's All-You-C (TSAEA) 150000 1.89 (+0.04)          The Substance (SBSTN) 29518 9.55 (0.00)          Lee (LEE) 150000 7.71 (-0.03)          Sight (SIGHT) 150000 8.13 (-0.08)          Down Under Cover (DWNUC) 7980 0.51 (0.00)          Toto (TOTO) 1000 12.13 (-0.08)          Matthew Goode (MTGOO) 25000 13.35 (+0.10)          Jack Quaid (JQUAI) 25000 108.88 (0.00)          Jack Huston (JHUST) 25000 26.68 (+0.13)          Gillian Anderson (GANDE) 25000 9.72 (+0.05)          Ioan Gruffudd (IGRUF) 25000 80.93 (+0.25)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 9000 11.93 (+0.04)          Ioan Gruffudd (IGRUF) 25000 80.93 (+0.25)          Ioan Gruffudd (IGRUF) 25000 80.93 (+0.25)          Owen Teague (OTEAG) 25000 30.41 (0.00)          Margaret Qualley (MQUAL) 25000 10.91 (+0.20)          Amy Schumer (ASCHU) 25000 65.38 (-0.25)          Down Under Cover (DWNUC) 43020 0.51 (0.00)          Summer Camp (SUMCP) 40000 11.98 (+0.91)          Eric Larue (ERICL) 17000 0.43 (+0.01)          Djimon Hounsou (DHOUN) 25000 65.57 (-0.25)          Ilana Glazer (IGLAZ) 25000 22.65 (-0.25)          Whoopi Goldberg (WGOLD) 25000 9.43 (-0.05)          Monica Bellucci (MOBEL) 3000 57.71 (+0.07)          Nicholas Hoult (NHOUL) 25000 31.39 (-0.12)          Rumours (RUMRS) 100000 6.59 (-0.13)          Jack O'Connell (JAOCO) 25000 5.98 (-0.15)          Jack O'Connell (JAOCO) 25000 5.98 (-0.15)          Jason Segel (JSEGE) 25000 27.71 (+0.12)          Back to Black (BTBLK) 40000 9.89 (-0.78)          I Saw the TV Glow (ISTVG) 150000 3.08 (+0.18)          Summer Camp (SUMCP) 5000 11.98 (+0.91)