HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

Is this the way you compare mid-week openers with Friday openers?

Posted by: MattW (a.k.a del_RGV_MattW) on Dec 14, 23:58

To look at the first 7 days:

Toy Story 3 versus Despicable Me 2: both animated, close release dates, not that many years between them, and close on the 7 day totals. TS3 did 110.3m Fri-Sun while DM2 was at 83.5m, 25% lower (likely boosted somewhat by having a holiday close to the weekend). 

Another might be Transformers 2 compared to TDKR and Deathly Hallows 2. All summer openings, first 7 days are close, but the Friday openers were in the 160-170 range while TF was at 109 for it's Fri-Sun, 32-35% down. 

So obviously I'm mentioning this in reference to guessing at the hobbit 3's opening, which leads me here:

Given those percentages, a wednesday opening at Smaug's level would be around 50 I think for Fri-Sun, and at AUJ's level it would be up to low 60's at most, around Two Towers level.  Not that it can't be bigger, but if you're expecting it to open similarly to the last two you probably aren't thinking 70m for Fri-Sun, right?

There's probably a more sophisticated way to go about it but that's all I got for now.





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


How to Train Your Dragon 2 (HTTY2) 4 196.93 (-0.91)          Flavia (FLAVI) 30000 4.56 (+0.56)          Shrek 5 (SHRK5) 3 244.44 (-0.38)          Oceans (OCEN5) 5 53.23 (+0.20)          Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Ve (ASPD3) 3 235.09 (+0.66)          The Catch (TCATC) 4 69.57 (-0.05)          The Resurrection of the Christ (RESUR) 4 169.01 (-0.21)          Star Wars: Starfighter (SWAR4) 5 257.85 (+1.11)          The Legend of Zelda (ZELDA) 5 226.29 (-0.67)          Animal Friends (ANFRN) 69 57.78 (-0.30)          Skeletons (SKLTN) 37340 22.22 (+1.10)          Animal Friends (ANFRN) 7 57.78 (-0.30)          White Lies (WHTLI) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          The Beekeeper 2 (BEKP2) 8 38.58 (+0.20)          The Beast (TBEAS) 300 6.40 (+0.02)          Werwulf (WERWU) 5 73.27 (+0.33)          Alien sequel (ALIE6) 15813 80.33 (-1.44)          Lords of War (LRDW2) 45 8.14 (+0.29)          The Debut (DEBUT) 85 5.94 (+0.42)          42.6 Years (426YR) 149999 15.63 (+1.61)          White Lies (WHTLI) 10000 10.00 (0.00)          Focker In-Law (MPRN4) 6 117.89 (-0.53)          Hexed (HEXED) 6 122.53 (+0.55)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6) 10 181.14 (-1.49)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150000 129.45 (-0.98)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 25 23.28 (+0.46)          Goblin (GBLIN) 50000 19.92 (+0.49)          Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol (EBNZR) 5 89.45 (-0.31)          Wife & Dog (WIFDG) 75 11.39 (-0.06)          Fatherland (FTHRL) 6 4.36 (-0.02)          Wife & Dog (WIFDG) 6 11.39 (-0.06)          Fatherland (FTHRL) 6 4.36 (-0.02)          Other Mommy aka Incidents Around (IATHS) 5 31.14 (-0.10)          Goblin (GBLIN) 150000 19.92 (+0.49)          Sense and Sensibility (SNSNS) 100 18.62 (+1.48)          Goblin (GBLIN) 100000 19.92 (+0.49)          The Fix aka Hotel Tehran (HTHRN) 400 4.80 (0.00)          Victorian Psycho (VPSYC) 175 12.19 (+0.02)          Angel and the Badman (ANBAD) 165 13.64 (-0.06)          Verity (VERTY) 14 52.68 (+0.61)          Beware Boiuna aka Legend of the (BOUNA) 8 19.19 (-0.13)          How to Train Your Dragon 2 (HTTY2) 10000 196.93 (-0.91)          Motor City (MTRCT) 150000 8.61 (+0.48)          Forgotten Island (FRGIS) 8 63.85 (+0.41)          Shaun The Sheep: The Beast Of Mo (SHEP3) 8 13.24 (+0.09)          Motor City (MTRCT) 150000 8.61 (+0.48)          Fall 2: Deadpoint (FALL2) 4 7.65 (-0.02)          The Dog Stars (DOGST) 5 79.19 (+0.25)          Moana (MOAN1) 50 234.17 (+4.52)          Moana (MOAN1) 50 234.17 (+4.52)