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Playing & Trading Strategy

Is this the way you compare mid-week openers with Friday openers?

Posted by: MattW (a.k.a del_RGV_MattW) on Dec 14, 23:58

To look at the first 7 days:

Toy Story 3 versus Despicable Me 2: both animated, close release dates, not that many years between them, and close on the 7 day totals. TS3 did 110.3m Fri-Sun while DM2 was at 83.5m, 25% lower (likely boosted somewhat by having a holiday close to the weekend). 

Another might be Transformers 2 compared to TDKR and Deathly Hallows 2. All summer openings, first 7 days are close, but the Friday openers were in the 160-170 range while TF was at 109 for it's Fri-Sun, 32-35% down. 

So obviously I'm mentioning this in reference to guessing at the hobbit 3's opening, which leads me here:

Given those percentages, a wednesday opening at Smaug's level would be around 50 I think for Fri-Sun, and at AUJ's level it would be up to low 60's at most, around Two Towers level.  Not that it can't be bigger, but if you're expecting it to open similarly to the last two you probably aren't thinking 70m for Fri-Sun, right?

There's probably a more sophisticated way to go about it but that's all I got for now.





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Compassionate Release aka The Fr (CMPSN) 10000 36.49 (+1.00)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          G.I. Joe (GIJO4) 11099 38.59 (+0.17)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.OW) 100000 90.00 (0.00)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.OW) 100000 90.00 (0.00)          I Play Rocky H$15 Put (IPROC.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Takashi Yamazaki (TYAMA) 25000 46.60 (-0.16)          I Play Rocky H$15 Call (IPROC.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Hole (THHOL) 43496 6.00 (0.00)          I Play Rocky - Opening Weekend (IPROC.OW) 100000 15.00 (0.00)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.OW) 100000 90.00 (0.00)          Daisy Edgar-Jones (DEDGA) 25000 91.68 (-0.75)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 112.42 (+0.42)          Compassionate Release aka The Fr (CMPSN) 150000 36.49 (+1.00)          Tyrant (TYRNT) 150000 21.49 (+1.68)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 25.80 (+0.85)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.OW) 100000 90.00 (0.00)          Zachary Levi (ZLEVI) 25000 8.53 (+0.40)          The Hole (THHOL) 150000 6.00 (0.00)          Noomi Rapace (NRAPA) 25000 1.57 (-0.05)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          I Play Rocky H$15 Call (IPROC.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Zachary Levi (ZLEVI) 25000 8.53 (+0.40)          I Play Rocky H$15 Put (IPROC.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          I Play Rocky H$15 Call (IPROC.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          I Play Rocky - Opening Weekend (IPROC.OW) 100000 15.00 (0.00)          I Play Rocky H$15 Call (IPROC.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          I Play Rocky - Opening Weekend (IPROC.OW) 100000 15.00 (0.00)          I Play Rocky H$15 Put (IPROC.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Will Poulter (WPOUL) 25000 10.47 (+0.62)          The Hole (THHOL) 150000 6.00 (0.00)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6.OW) 100000 90.00 (0.00)          Days Gone (DAYSG) 150000 3.69 (+0.02)          Will Poulter (WPOUL) 25000 10.47 (+0.62)          The Hole (THHOL) 60000 6.00 (0.00)          The Asian Fund (ASIAN) 20000 20.00 (0.00)          The Hole (THHOL) 6666 6.00 (0.00)          I Play Rocky H$15 Put (IPROC.PU) 5000 2.00 (0.00)          Lewis Pullman (LPULL) 25000 52.02 (+0.33)          Ramayana (RAMAY) 150000 19.31 (+0.69)          Ramayana (RAMAY) 150000 19.31 (+0.69)          Ramayana - Opening Weekend (RAMAY.OW) 100000 6.95 (-0.03)          Wunmi Mosaku (WMOSA) 25000 102.29 (+0.36)