Playing & Trading Strategy

Wow no tracking out.. and people on boards talkinb about hobbit doing less than 70ow yet it's climbed over 12 pts in last 2 days... {nm} Dorfman Dec 15, 08:45

Personally, I think Warner Bros. is trying to milk Hobbit as much as they can... I'm thinking they've run their course... Flash Dec 15, 08:49

Well yeah! What are they gonna do next? The Silmarillion? (link) Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 15, 11:35

There's enough material in it he might be able to do 72 movies. If he had the rights. ;) {nm} DTravel Dec 15, 11:38

It's not the last we've heard of Tolkien. A British film, titled Tolkien & Lewis is in the works... Lucky_Muppet Dec 15, 11:49

Lucky Muppet, message inside DTravel Dec 15, 19:49

Haha - thanks DT! Lucky_Muppet Dec 16, 09:13

Oh gawd - remember before LOTR when we had Hobbit stock... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 15, 12:15

I'm thinking there's going to be a lot of disappointed people come Sunday. mantleclinic Dec 15, 09:01

It's Pump and Dump stock market rally. {nm} mike255 Dec 15, 09:36

Hobbit opens on Wed and gets 2 extra days of box office. {nm} Antibody Dec 15, 09:57

I'm more Bearish on this one, myself. Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 15, 12:07

10M?! LOTR3 did 51 Wed/Thu + 72M Fri-Sun. LOTR2 did $40M + $62M. LOTR1 did $28 + $47M. {nm} Antibody Dec 15, 14:44

Yes they did. Hobbit opened to $84.5M 3-day, 2 opened to $73.5M 3-day. However... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 15, 16:58

It's not about being a bear or a bull, it's about whether your ratio is logical or just random darts. {nm} Antibody Dec 16, 09:08

Oh - and Pro Box Office has the long-range forecast at $68M opening, and there hasn't Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 15, 17:02

65 - 3 day. (68 is old info) {nm} Awards Fund Dec 15, 17:47

Then a similar 60% ratio to your $62 Fri-Sun would be $37M Wed-Thu = $204. {nm} Antibody Dec 15, 18:01

Imma say $17M Wed/Thu + $49M Fri-Sun. And that's taking into consideration the 3/3 bump. Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 15, 18:18

Your ratio is still not consistent with the past. A $49M weekend would mean ~$30M weekdays. {nm} Antibody Dec 16, 09:07

No, the trend was an $11M decline in weeklies per installment. {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 16, 11:07

huh? You mean a $11M increase. {nm} Antibody Dec 16, 11:14

Damn! Read it backwards. {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 16, 11:27

no I didn't, actually, I just said weeklies instead of installments... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 16, 12:09

That's WEEKEND. A 11% decline would mean $62M weekend with ~$37M. Now I'm just repeating myself. {nm} Antibody Dec 16, 12:40

Actually, average 37% of total 5-day in weekday numbers. Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 16, 12:12

No, I'm refering to Wed-Thu/Fri-Sun ratio. So LOTR3 was 70%; LOTR2 65%; LOTR1 60%. Average is actually 65%. {nm} Antibody Dec 16, 12:43

you are saying xx% of the weekend numbers (65% of what the weekend did). I am saying Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 16, 13:51

Reverse this: Weekdays = (weekend/.35 ((or .37)) Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 16, 13:54

Screw it - I'm just making it more confusing. Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 16, 15:01

The last LOTR was 11 yrs ago - not sure that's a good comparision for today's market - see my post below about Wed openers {nm} JDolphin Dec 15, 22:08

They are absolutely comparable and gives us the best possible weekday to weekend ratios. {nm} Antibody Dec 16, 09:05

I think the last 2 Hobbit movies are better comparisons than the LOTR films. {nm} Dorfman Dec 16, 10:48

Agreed, of course. Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Dec 16, 11:12

The last 2 Hobbits didn't open on Wed. {nm} Antibody Dec 16, 11:12