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CelebStock and StarBonds

Grooming the Delta House bond portfolio, we observed a number of ARB bonds (can't-lose next adjustment)

Posted by: SenJohnBlutarsky on Aug 18, 09:43

We noticed a number of long-neglected bonds had plenty of stranded cash to be released by covering and began some cursory grooming of the Delta Tau Chi bond portfolio.

(Our aim is to hold every bond, long or short. 20,000 is standard holding, some bonds still 19,999 showing that they were never updated after long medical hiatus, a few at 19,998 signaling 'playing the players')

We were surprised to find that a number of bonds are ARB in the sense that the next adjust can't lose.  We found bonds whose prices are lower than the value to which the next adjust could reduce them (a price is lower than removal of the fifth relevant movie could take it, without regard to the value of the next movie in).  For example, a bond whose next adjustment will remove a H$20 movie and is currently priced at $27 below TAG is guaranteed to adjust upward when adjusted or delisted. 

In at least one case, the prices were more than H$50 below the current TAG.  One should recognize that seemingly counterintuitive (but sometimes rational) trades could cause a bond to experience transient gains or losses against the inevitable grain before an adjust occurs or a bond is delisted.

We are not sure if there is (or ever was) a handy resource to identify the bonds that are ARB. 

The demise of the Post-Adjust Bond Show has made maintaining a sound bond portfolio more time-consuming and risky.  The PABS was fine work and is missed.

Good luck, traders!

 





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Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 5000 25.17 (-1.59)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 2999 426.95 (+1.50)          The Lunar Chronicles (LUNAR) 360 50.93 (+0.93)          The Mummy 4 (MUMY5) 200 101.06 (+0.56)          The Lunar Chronicles (LUNAR) 97584 50.93 (+0.93)          Gladys aka Weapons prequel (WEPN2) 150000 68.63 (+0.15)          The Resurrection of the Christ: (RESU2) 150000 151.87 (+0.11)          Miami Vice '85 (MIVIC) 150000 119.05 (+0.33)          Final Destination 7 (FDES7) 150000 67.28 (+0.15)          Evil Dead Wrath (EVLD7) 150000 50.40 (+0.20)          Grandgear (GGEAR) 150000 59.65 (+0.15)          Murder, She Wrote (MURSW) 150000 35.28 (+0.03)          Longlegs 2 (LNLE2) 150000 54.99 (+0.15)          The Great Beyond aka Ghostwriter (ACRNS) 150000 117.01 (+0.45)          Nina Dobrev (NDOBR) 1 35.16 (0.00)          Lice (LICE) 1000 6.02 (+0.23)          The Mummy 4 (MUMY5) 150000 101.06 (+0.56)          A Quiet Place: Part III (AQPL4) 150000 120.59 (+0.33)          John Rambo (RAMB6) 150000 40.62 (+0.15)          The Flood (FLOOD) 150000 84.84 (+0.25)          Ono Ghost Market (ONOGM) 150000 94.32 (+0.25)          Call of Duty (CODUT) 150000 97.42 (+0.25)          The Lunar Chronicles (LUNAR) 100000 50.93 (+0.93)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 112.92 (-0.44)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 25000 25.17 (-1.59)          Scary Movie (SCAR6) 150000 105.23 (+0.12)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 25000 9.60 (-0.21)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 150000 61.11 (-0.20)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 10000 26.60 (+0.49)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 50000 61.11 (-0.20)          Wilford Nappy Pulawa biopic (NAPPY) 10000 48.44 (-0.05)          Please (PLESE) 100000 21.64 (-0.02)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 100000 17.18 (-0.07)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 50000 138.51 (-0.54)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 40000 138.51 (-0.54)          The Invite (TINVT) 150000 19.89 (0.00)          The Invite (TINVT) 150000 19.89 (0.00)          The Resurrection of the Christ: (RESU2) 100000 151.87 (+0.11)          Focker In-Law (MPRN4) 100000 119.15 (-0.22)          Jumanji: Open World (JUMN3) 35000 161.89 (-0.08)          Backrooms (BACRM) 10000 170.21 (+0.34)          Backrooms (BACRM) 20000 170.21 (+0.34)          Bluey the Movie (BLUEY) 150000 142.71 (+0.33)          Scary Movie (SCAR6) 150000 105.23 (+0.12)          Moana (MOAN1) 60000 231.29 (-0.49)          Backrooms (BACRM) 150000 170.21 (+0.34)          Moana (MOAN1) 87000 231.29 (-0.49)          The Cat in the Hat (TCATH) 150000 92.45 (+0.33)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 20000 25.17 (-1.59)          Jumanji: Open World (JUMN3) 5000 161.89 (-0.08)