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CelebStock and StarBonds

Grooming the Delta House bond portfolio, we observed a number of ARB bonds (can't-lose next adjustment)

Posted by: SenJohnBlutarsky on Aug 18, 09:43

We noticed a number of long-neglected bonds had plenty of stranded cash to be released by covering and began some cursory grooming of the Delta Tau Chi bond portfolio.

(Our aim is to hold every bond, long or short. 20,000 is standard holding, some bonds still 19,999 showing that they were never updated after long medical hiatus, a few at 19,998 signaling 'playing the players')

We were surprised to find that a number of bonds are ARB in the sense that the next adjust can't lose.  We found bonds whose prices are lower than the value to which the next adjust could reduce them (a price is lower than removal of the fifth relevant movie could take it, without regard to the value of the next movie in).  For example, a bond whose next adjustment will remove a H$20 movie and is currently priced at $27 below TAG is guaranteed to adjust upward when adjusted or delisted. 

In at least one case, the prices were more than H$50 below the current TAG.  One should recognize that seemingly counterintuitive (but sometimes rational) trades could cause a bond to experience transient gains or losses against the inevitable grain before an adjust occurs or a bond is delisted.

We are not sure if there is (or ever was) a handy resource to identify the bonds that are ARB. 

The demise of the Post-Adjust Bond Show has made maintaining a sound bond portfolio more time-consuming and risky.  The PABS was fine work and is missed.

Good luck, traders!

 





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