SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: Independence Day about to get Despicable

Three new films open today on Wednesday ahead of the Fourth of July holiday weekend. The animated sequel Despicable Me 2 [DESM2] looks to provide most of the fireworks. Steve Carell [SCARE] returns to voice the now retired villain Gru, but most of Universal’s marketing efforts has focused on the popular minions. Enough good will has built up with fans that the story for the sequel has become secondary. The original Despicable Me debuted three years ago at $56.4 million and legged out an astonishing total of $251.5 million. The PG-rated film appeals to not just families, but moviegoers of all four quadrants: females, males, under 25, and 25 and over. Despicable Me 2 is off to a strong start with $4.7 million Tuesday night. Playing in 3997 theaters, Despicable Me 2 could bring in $78 million from Friday to Sunday and $115 million overall.

Disney reboots The Lone Ranger [LONER] hoping to reinvent westerns much like they did high-seas adventures with Pirates of the Caribbean. Although Armie Hammer [AHAMM] plays the title character, Johnny Depp [JEPP] is the star attraction as Tonto. His latest reunion with producer Jerry Bruckheimer and director Gore Verbinksi [GVERB] has had a troubled past due to its steep costs well over $200 million. Unfortunately, the resulting PG-13 rated film has received terrible reviews. The Lone Ranger grossed $2 million from Tuesday night, but word of mouth will likely be poor heading into the weekend. Even Depp may not be enough to attract women to a western. Two years ago, the big budgeted Cowboys & Aliens managed $36.4 million despite its starpower. Riding into 3907 theaters, The Lone Ranger may spirit away a similar $37 million over the weekend and $55 million overall.

With direct competition from Despicable Me 2 in its third outing, Monsters University [MONS2] may settle with $25 million over the weekend. After a strong debut, The Heat [THEAT] should continue to attract female moviegoers and hold around 55% for $21 million in its sophomore session.

World War Z [WWARZ] looks to add another $17 million in its third campaign, while White House Down [WHDWN] is likely to tumble more than 50% in its second weekend to $12 million.

Comedian Kevin Hart [KHART] signaled his arrival two years ago when Laugh At My Pain opened at $1.9 million from just 98 theaters. His new concert film Kevin Hart: Let me Explain [KHLME] opens wide in 876 theaters. The most popular stand-up comedian working today has built up a large fanbase that should turn out in urban markets target by Summit. The R-rated film banked a strong $1.1 million from Tuesday night showings which could indicate some front-loading. Kevin Hart: Let me Explain may take in $9 million from Friday to Sunday and reach $15 million overall.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): DESM2, SCARE, LONER, AHAMM, GVERB, MONS2, THEAT, WWARZ, WHDWN, KHART, KHLME

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By Box Office Whisperer on Wednesday, July 3, 2013 @ 12:03 PM 2854 views

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The Naked Gun (NKGUN) 150000 89.60 (-0.70)          The Fantastic Four: First Steps (FANF2) 50000 230.01 (-1.12)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 1080 65.62 (0.00)          Superman (SUPRM) 50000 297.88 (+6.37)          Sarah's Oil (SAOIL) 33000 24.19 (+0.01)          The Running Man (TRUNM) 1 132.00 (+1.03)          The Running Man (TRUNM) 1 132.00 (+1.03)          Cliffhanger (CLFHN) 43000 8.54 (-0.02)          Star Wars: Starfighter (SWAR4) 1 220.11 (+1.26)          Star Wars: Starfighter (SWAR4) 1 220.11 (+1.26)          Hercules (HRCUL) 8000 22.05 (-0.02)          Bratz (BRAT2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          From the World of John Wick: Cai (FJWCN) 24401 34.14 (+0.04)          I Know What You Did Last Summer (IKNO4) 150000 46.99 (-2.48)          Paul Giamatti (PGIAM) 5000 30.90 (-0.15)          Ghostbusters animated (GBUST) 140000 7.29 (+0.04)          Big Trouble in Little China (BTILC) 140000 1.83 (-0.01)          Bad Fairies (BFAIR) 150000 43.61 (+0.25)          The Naked Gun H$35 Call (NKGUN.CA) 25000 2.50 (+0.50)          I Know What You Did Last Summer (IKNO4.PU) 25000 4.64 (+0.03)          Jon Hamm (JHAMM) 15000 81.44 (+0.15)          The Bad Guys 2 H$25 Put (TBAD2.PU) 25000 1.79 (-0.21)          The Fantastic Four: First Steps (FANF2.PU) 25000 1.16 (-0.04)          Hoppers (HOPPR) 25000 131.34 (+3.07)          The Naked Gun H$35 Call (NKGUN.CA) 25000 2.50 (+0.50)          Kevin Bacon (KBACO) 1000 15.22 (0.00)          Highlander (HIGHL) 308 32.10 (-0.05)          Smurfs H$20 Put (SMRF4.PU) 25000 4.05 (+0.42)          Alpha Gang (ALPHG) 150000 5.88 (+1.03)          Alpha Gang (ALPHG) 150000 5.88 (+1.03)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 29.99 (-1.25)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 29.99 (-1.25)          The Raid (RAID1) 150000 0.08 (+0.02)          Bratz (BRAT2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Eddington - Opening Weekend (EDNGT.OW) 40000 3.92 (-0.05)          Mortal Kombat II (MKMB2) 10000 50.23 (+1.84)          Mortal Kombat II (MKMB2) 100000 50.23 (+1.84)          Teen Titans (TEENT) 30170 61.09 (-1.74)          The Bad Guys 2 H$25 Put (TBAD2.PU) 25000 1.79 (-0.21)          Dan Levy (DLEVY) 25000 41.92 (-1.16)          Wind of Change (WNDOC) 150000 7.66 (-0.34)          Eddington (EDNGT) 5000 13.93 (-0.02)          Bratz (BRAT2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Paul Giamatti (PGIAM) 10000 30.90 (-0.15)          Paul Giamatti (PGIAM) 10000 30.90 (-0.15)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 8828 125.73 (-0.10)          Pedro Pascal (PPASC) 2074 71.91 (+0.27)          Afterburn (AFBRN) 40000 6.49 (-0.40)          Bratz (BRAT2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Eddington (EDNGT) 1000 13.93 (-0.02)