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Whisper Numbers: Forecast remains Fifty Shades of Grey

As Hollywood’s biggest stars prepare for the Academy Awards ceremony this weekend, three new movies will target specific demographics while ceding the top spot to Fifty Shades of Grey [50SHD]. After its record-breaking opening, the erotic romance is losing steam fast similarly to other female-targeted adaptations. The two Sex and the City films tumbled more than 60% in their second weekend, while the non-summer Twilight sequels have dropped 70% in their sophomore weekend. Fifty Shades of Grey could stumble more than 60% to $33 million.

After its strong debut over a holiday weekend, Kingsman: The Secret Service [TSSRV] may lose 50% and finish with around $19 million. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water [SPBO2] should battle for second place at about $18 million.

Hot Tub Time Machine was a mild hit in March 2010 with a $14 million opening, so most of the cast return in the obligatory sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2 [HTUB2]. Moviegoers enjoy time travelling shenanigans, and the marketing on the R-rated raunchy comedy has delivered chuckles if not laughs.  Dipping into 2880 theaters, Hot Tub Time Machine 2 could whirl up $13 million.

Kevin Costner [KCOST] toplines his second film in two months with McFarland, USA [MCFAR], based on a true story. The PG-rated Disney release is the typical inspirational sports drama about underdogs overcoming adversity with the help of a new coach. Disney opened Million Dollar Arm to $10.5 million last May. McFarland, USA should do about a similar $10 million from 2755 locations.

Although the PG-13 rated comedy The DUFF [TDUFF] has come up with a catchy slogan in Designated Ugly Fat Friend, the story about high school popularity and cliques hasn’t changed since the John Hughes ‘80s.  However, new teens age into the moviegoing demographic coveted by studios like Lionsgate. Showing in 2575 theaters, The DUFF may pretty up $8 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): 50SHD, TSSRV, SPBO2, HTUB2, KCOST, MCFAR, TDUFF

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 19, 2015 @ 03:36 PM 1851 views

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