SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Will The Martian overcome Gravity?

NASA announced the discovery of recent water on Mars this week just as The Martian [MARTN] arrives theaters. Fox can’t be any happier with the free publicity for their PG-13 rated sci-fi film.  Matt Damon [MDAMO] stars as an astronaut stranded on the red planet who must survive solely on his scientific knowledge. Damon played a similar role in Interstellar, which opened to $47.5 million last November, while Sandra Bullock's stranded-in-space flick Gravity set the October record two years ago at $55.8 million. Advance tickets sales are pacing ahead of Gravity. However, The Martian runs an hour longer and does not have the higher-priced IMAX screens that propelled Gravity. The film is highly anticipated by fans of the best-selling novel and the overwhelmingly positive reviews only build the buzz. If hurricane Joaquin doesn’t hit the East Coast, The Martian could land $58 million from 3826 locations.

Hotel Transylvania 2 [HTRN2] prove more popular than ever. Sony’s Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 declined 38% in its second weekend. A similar decay would put Hotel Transylvania 2 around $29 million.

Older women turned out for the comedy The Intern [INTRN] and should continue to do so. The Intern could hold 60% in its second weekend for $10.5 million.

After two weeks of limited release, Sicario [SICAR] expands wide into 2620 theaters. The R-rated crime drama about the border war on drugs has garnered critical acclaim. Though Lionsgate faces competition for the same audience from The Martian. Sicario may have to settle with $10 million.

Everest [EVRST] did not breakout in its wide expansion. With the loss of most IMAX screens to The Walk, Everest may descend to $6 million.

The Walk [TWALK] opened on 448 IMAX screens Wednesday and grossed just $0.24 million. The 1974-set film stars Joseph Gordon-Levitt [JGORD] as the real-life Frenchman who tightwalked across a wire strung between the Twin Towers. There’s little buzz as moviegoers appear uninterested in revisiting the CG site of the 9-11 tragedy. The Walk may reach $4 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): MARTN, MDAMO, HTRN2, INTRN, SICAR, EVRST, TWALK, JGORD

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, October 1, 2015 @ 04:16 PM 4330 views

Recent Comments

Alby
Friday, October 2 at 21:16 PM Pacific
"The Martian runs an hour longer and does not have the higher-priced IMAX screens that propelled Gravity" I'm calling BS --- http://www.si.edu/imax/movie/205



Frankenstein - Adapted Screenpla (A6EFRN) 25000 4.19 (-0.81)          F1 - Picture (A6PF1) 25000 1.89 (-0.61)          Hey Bear (HEYBR) 150000 4.62 (+1.04)          Hey Bear (HEYBR) 150000 4.62 (+1.04)          Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon - Actor (A6AEHA) 25000 4.08 (-0.92)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 150000 189.48 (-2.23)          Emma Stone - Bugonia - Actress (A6CEST) 25000 4.13 (-0.87)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 150000 189.48 (-2.23)          Michael B. Jordan - Sinners - Ac (A6AMBJ) 25000 5.67 (+0.67)          Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value (A6SEFA) 25000 4.29 (-0.71)          Josephine (JSPHN) 150000 5.98 (+0.82)          King (KING) 150000 4.02 (+0.10)          Josephine (JSPHN) 150000 5.98 (+0.82)          Ramayana (RAMAY) 150000 8.60 (+0.85)          Ramayana (RAMAY) 150000 8.60 (+0.85)          Delroy Lindo - Sinners - Sup Act (A6RDLI) 25000 4.33 (-0.67)          Sunny (SUNNY) 150000 18.68 (+0.60)          Chloe Zhao - Hamnet - Director (A6DCZH) 25000 3.94 (-1.06)          Sunny (SUNNY) 150000 18.68 (+0.60)          Blue Moon - Original Screenplay (A6OBLU) 25000 4.28 (-0.72)          Sentimental Value - Original Scr (A6OSEN) 25000 4.14 (-0.86)          Melania (MLNIA) 150000 1.51 (+0.03)          Bugonia - Adapted Screenplay (A6EBUG) 25000 3.92 (-1.08)          Bugonia - Picture (A6PBUG) 25000 1.87 (-0.63)          Frankenstein - Adapted Screenpla (A6EFRN) 25000 4.19 (-0.81)          Bugonia - Adapted Screenplay (A6EBUG) 25000 3.92 (-1.08)          Train Dreams - Adapted Screenpla (A6ETRD) 25000 4.18 (-0.82)          Blue Moon - Original Screenplay (A6OBLU) 25000 4.28 (-0.72)          Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value (A6SEFA) 25000 4.29 (-0.71)          Sinners - Original Screenplay (A6OSIN) 25000 7.10 (+1.03)          Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners - Sup Act (A6SWMO) 25000 4.22 (-0.78)          One Night Only (ONTON) 149999 25.43 (-0.28)          Mercy (MRCY1) 150000 24.97 (+0.13)          Marty Supreme - Original Screenp (A6OMSU) 25000 5.70 (+0.70)          One Night Only (ONTON) 150000 25.43 (-0.28)          Sentimental Value - Original Scr (A6OSEN) 25000 4.14 (-0.86)          Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentim (A6SIIL) 25000 4.15 (-0.85)          It Was Just An Accident - Origin (A6OIWJ) 25000 4.22 (-0.78)          Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentim (A6SIIL) 25000 4.15 (-0.85)          X-Men aka Mutants (XMEN8) 150000 159.37 (+0.88)          Blue Moon - Original Screenplay (A6OBLU) 25000 4.28 (-0.72)          X-Men aka Mutants (XMEN8) 150000 159.37 (+0.88)          Delroy Lindo - Sinners - Sup Act (A6RDLI) 25000 4.33 (-0.67)          Benicio Del Toro - One Battle af (A6RBDT) 25000 4.59 (-0.41)          One Battle After Another - Adapt (A6EOBA) 25000 6.59 (+1.04)          Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein - Su (A6RJEL) 25000 4.10 (-0.90)          Train Dreams - Adapted Screenpla (A6ETRD) 25000 4.18 (-0.82)          Amy Madigan - Weapons - Sup Actr (A6SAMA) 25000 5.98 (+0.98)          Wife & Dog (WIFDG) 150000 13.02 (+0.06)          Hamnet - Adapted Screenplay (A6EHAM) 25000 4.53 (-0.47)