The October opening weekend record is likely to be broken this weekend, but the question is by whom? Venom [VENM1] has been the season-long favorite to top Gravity’s $55.8 million set in 2013, but A Star is Born [ASTAR] is surging lately. Sony spun off Venom from their Marvel Spider-Verse. Tom Hardy [THARD] stars as a journalist who gets infected by an alien symbiote. The comic anti-hero is a fan favorite, so the PG-13 rated film has been tracking as high as $70 million. However, the buzz has turned sour as reviews have been mostly negative. Attacking 4250 theaters, Venom could consume $60 million.
Bradley Cooper [BCOOP] and Lady Gaga [LGAGA] topline the latest remake of A Star is Born. The response from the trailer released in June has been so strong that Warner Bros. did not need to cut another. Reviews out of the fall festival circuits are gushing over a leading Oscar contender in all categories. The 'Little Monsters' will be out to support their favorite artist. Fandango reported advance sales are pacing ahead of both Gravity and The Martian, which is second in October at $53.4 million. However, A Star is Born won’t have the benefit of higher ticket prices from 3D and PLF screens. Playing in 3686 theaters, A Star is Born could belt out $46 million.
The family-targeted Smallfoot [SMLFT] should enjoy long legs. Storks dropped 37% in its second session two years ago. Smallfoot could hold around 60% and take third with at least $14 million.
Night School [NTSCH] looks to drop hard in its sophomore weekend like Kevin Hart’s previous non-holiday comedies. A 55% decline in attendance would put Night School at $12 million.
That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.
Tag(s): VENM1, ASTAR, THARD, BCOOP, LGAGA, SMLFT, NTSCH