The Easter holiday weekend brings a new film from prolific writer-director Tyler Perry [TPERR], Madea’s Big Happy Family [MDBHF] featuring Perry corss-dressing as the popular grandma character. Perry's fanbase of church-going, older black women has consistently turned out for his films. Last Easter, Why Did I Get Married Too opened to $29.3 million. His last two Madea films were released in 2009. Madea Goes to Jail opened with $41 million in February, while I Can Do Bad All By Myself debuted with $23.5 million in September. With a prime Easter weekend slot, the PG-13 rated Madea’s Big Happy Family should fall closer to the higher end. Opening in 2288 theaters, Madea’s Big Happy Family could gather $32 million.
After a strong opening, the animated birds of Rio [RIO] look to continue to soar over the holiday weekend. A decline around 35% would net another $24 million.
Reese Witherspoon [RWITH] and Robert Pattinson [RPATT] star in the romance Water for Elephant [WELPH] based on the bestselling novel. Adult women are the prime target audience for the PG-13 rated film. Fox hopes Pattinson will attract his young female fans, but his draw outside Twilight is limited as Remember Me opened to just $8.1 million. Witherspoon’s starpower has diminished since she moved away from romantic comedies. The lack of options for sophisticated moviegoers and the date crowd could work in its favor. Water for Elephant may pull in around $16 million from 2817 locations.
Scream 4 [SCRM4] did not appeal to anyone outside the older fans of the franchise. The horror sequel is likely to tumble more than 55% to $8 million. Hop [IHOP] should be helped by the Easter holiday and bounce back with $7 million.
Disneynature offers the documentary African Cats [AFCAT] to celebrate Earth Day. Last year’s entry, Oceans opened on a Thursday and earned $6.1 million over the weekend. African Cats should be helped by school outings on Friday, but Saturday and Sunday may pass stiffer competition from other family films. Debuting in 1220 theaters, African Cats could capture $6 million.
That’s the whisper from the trading floor.
Tag(s): TPERR, MDBHF, RIO, RWITH, RPATT, WELPH, SCRM4, IHOP, AFCAT