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Well I'm this guy that is very anti-technology (which is weird if you knew what I do for a living).

Posted by: lobogotti on Jul 29, 18:46 in response to ShawnMR's post I'm curious what you look at? If you don't wish to...

No offense to anyone but I feel in this game it would be very easy to overanalyze with all the data available.

Currently I pay very close attention to:

1. Past performance of comparable films. I'm not yet near as skilled as some on here.
2. Weekend of the year (holidays, etc.).
3. Inflation Rate, 3D, IMAX, Theatre Counts.
4. Current Events.
5. RS numbers the first time they come out, then the final.
6. MTC numbers.
7. HSX feelers (gurus, players). There are many on here that I pay close attention to and see if I can read their thoughts. I don't dare speak their names :)
8. IMDB boards, Yahoo, AICN....I use these when it is helpful.
9. People around me. I'm lucky to be among a ton of guys and gals who are big into movies. Their moods really help me determine making me picks.

I take all that info and mold it together. It's tough to go against an MTC and predict 50% more or less than what they say because truthfully they get paid to do this. For example, I chose 170M for TFRM3 when they were at 138M. In that case I just couldn't accept the film would open that low given the hype and holiday, regardless if they were right they were going to have to prove it that week.

I don't have access to all Twitter numbers, but even if I did I would not put a lot of faith in it. I'm sure it will eventually be more controlled but I really think I have a decent knack for the gut picks.

if these numbers hold true BrilliantMovieGuy has brought about a new way of tracking. it's really very cool if you think about it. {nm} lobogotti Jul 29, 17:46

it's at least worth testing from here on out. {nm} lobogotti Jul 29, 17:47

As of Friday evening, the RT numbers are 40-24-17. Soooo... a little low on SMURF, otherwise not bad. second gary Jul 29, 17:51

yes, but if they represented minimums that would be impressive and very useful. interesting read indeed. {nm} lobogotti Jul 29, 17:53

Paul Dirac, who developed the "Large Numbers Hypothesis." {nm} second gary Jul 29, 18:12

impressive stuff. i am big into mathematics/numbers but this is well above me... lobogotti Jul 29, 18:27

No offense of any kind to BMG, but I've been using that methodology for awhile. Part of my first project on BOT this summer has been collect ShawnMR Jul 29, 18:18

very nice. many of you guys use much better data than what I use. {nm} lobogotti Jul 29, 18:25

I'm curious what you look at? If you don't wish to share, I def understand. I try to consider all sources but it causes me to overanalyze ShawnMR Jul 29, 18:28

Well I'm this guy that is very anti-technology (which is weird if you knew what I do for a living). lobogotti Jul 29, 18:46

TFRM3 is at 60,137 user reviews...but it was at the same number days before its release. Nightfury82 Jul 29, 18:19

Flixster has had issues with updating some totals, which make some comparisons difficult unfortunately. {nm} ShawnMR Jul 29, 18:22