Movies

Thoughts on playing the AVGN4 correction shipwreckedcrew Apr 29, 14:38

I'm confused.. why would anyone short it? I've always been a sit on something until it delists guy so yeah, I say do that. MiyazakiFan Apr 29, 15:14

profit taking by smaller ports after opening weekend usually drives the price down in the short term {nm} professor zovek Apr 29, 15:16

Though in this case, more than commission costs? {nm} RogerMore Apr 29, 15:50

quite possibly {nm} professor zovek Apr 29, 15:59

Commission cost of selling and then shorting and then covering is definitely going to outstrip any gains. WAY too risky for a small port {nm} MiyazakiFan Apr 30, 06:49

Why do you assume 2.5 when AVNG3 was 2.3? Higher anticipation could mean bigger frontloading. {nm} Antibody Apr 29, 15:33

There has also been stronger post viewing response, i.e. A+ Cinemascore. Expectation of stronger repeat business than Infinity War. {nm} Jay_Beezy Apr 29, 15:39

higher fills rates also for AVNG4 so more sell outs and more people had to wait to see {nm} Moviesnob Apr 29, 15:42

That only matter for repeat viewers. Some people who saw AVNG3 after week went week 1 instead due to higher anticipation.. {nm} Antibody Apr 29, 15:47

There were roughly 10 million moviegoers who saw AVNG4 week 1 that didn't go to AVNG3 week 1. {nm} Antibody Apr 29, 15:49

I'm talking about people who didnt see it this past weekend but couldnt due to sell outs. Its a higher % for AVNG4 Moviesnob Apr 29, 15:52

I don't think it's a big number, certainly not bigger than the millions who move up from AVNG3 week 2+ to AVNG4 week 1. {nm} Antibody Apr 29, 16:01

Rth 38-40m for Monday, so far the legs look like they won't be worse than infinity war. 2.31*357.1=825 {nm} MattW Apr 29, 17:41

I wouldn't bet on that, just that it's possible. Right now I'd guess anywhere from 760 to 825. MattW Apr 29, 17:52

There's 3 hours' worth of luggage to unpack with this one, I think the repeat viewing factor will be significant. {nm} Decoman Apr 29, 19:34

IDK, I followed it fine the first go around. {nm} ~JPV~ Apr 30, 07:35

As RogerMore says, the calendar is your friend. That might be boring, but it's easy money (lots of it). {nm} tatoufan Apr 29, 17:22

I think we saw the correction earlier today. It was down a buck or two. {nm} ndmaster Apr 29, 22:56

Shorting a MovieStock while it's breaking all-time BO records doesn't sound like decent ROI. {nm} tatoufan Apr 30, 03:50