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i worked up the best pic race based on his criteria.
no way i'm doing the others, too much work!
1) Best Picture winners have come from directors also nominated for Best Director 31 of the last 32 shows (96.88%). Advantage: Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Social Network, True Grit
2) They're also come from films with a screenplay nomination 31 of the last 32 shows (96.88%). Advantage: 127 Hours, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone
3) And they have also been nominated for Best Editing 31 of the last 32 shows (96.88%). Advantage: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Social Network
4) As long as you're not the lowest grossing nominee at the time of the nominations, you've won 29 of 32 times (90.63%). Advantage: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit
5) Best Picture winners have had at least one acting nomination 28 of 32 times (87.50%). Advantage: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, True Grit, Winter's Bone
6) The director of the Best Picture winner has also won the DGA Award 49 of 62 times (79.03%). Advantage: The King's Speech
7) Stories not predominantly set in modern times have won 20 of 32 times (62.50%). Advantage: The King's Speech, True Grit
8) The picture with the most nominations has gone on to win Best Picture 55 of 82 (67.07%) times. Advantage: The King's Speech
9) The Best Picture winner has also won the PGA Golden Laurel 15 of the 21 times the latter award has been presented (71.42%). Advantage: The King's Speech
10) Pictures that have received the Golden Globe for drama have won 18 of 32 times (56.25%). Advantage: The Social Network
clearly ahead: The King's Speech
I'm looking for a website that analyzes the oscar nominations based on previous winners... Feb 20, 16:05
Are you thinking of Nate Silver's column, now at the nytimes.com, "538" something something something? {nm} Feb 20, 16:30
... generally electoral / political, but for fun occasionally statistic topics outside of politics, like Oscar winners. {nm} Feb 20, 16:31
Link. Feb 20, 16:37
That isn't exactly what I was thinking. Feb 20, 16:44
Filmjerk used to do an excellent analysis on his website but I think he's moved on to other things. {nm} Feb 20, 17:35
check this from last year Feb 20, 17:38
Thats it! Feb 20, 18:29
i worked up the best pic race based on his criteria. Feb 20, 19:18
Oh, c'mon.....you've got a week! {nm} Feb 20, 19:22
"Ok, *if* I decide to do this, I'll need an unlimited supply of Xena tapes and Hotpockets..." Feb 20, 19:29
