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Whisper Numbers: Four newcomers vie for fourth place.

Hollywood sends four new wide releases to the plate this weekend. However, none are likely to contend for first place at the box office, which will be fought over by three holdover films. Although Dolphin Tale [DLPHN] finished third in its opening weekend, the family film has a chance to ascend to the top spot. The inspiration story has earned excellent word of mouth. Without any new competition for the family audience, Dolphin Tale may only decline around 30% to $13.5 million, which could be enough to prevail in a tight race.

The sports drama Moneyball [MONYB] has garnered great word of mouth as well, and could also move up from its second place finish last week. Baseball fans may opt to stay home and watch the playoffs though, so Moneyball could drop about 35% to $13 million.

With moviegoers still eager to check out The Lion King 3D [TLK3D], the animated re-release looks to collect another $13 million before the Blu-ray arrives on Tuesday.

Cancer movies are usually a bummer at the box office but the dramedy 50/50 [5050] hopes to beat the odds. Joseph Gordon-Levitt [JGORD] plays a young cancer patient while Seth Rogen [SROGE] co-star as his friend who helps him deal with the disease. The likeable cast and favorable reviews should appeal to the hipster target audience. Playing in 2458 theaters, the R-rated 50/50 could score $10 million.

Anna Faris [AFARI] is going through his exes to see if she missed ‘The One’ in the romantic comedy What’s Your Number? [WYNUM]. Chris Evans [CEVAN] coming off Captain America co-stars as a neighbor, who undoubtable will tuern out to be ‘The One’. Ads have been funny and should bring out those looking for R-rated laughs. Dialing into 3002 theaters, What’s Your Number? may ring up $9 million.

The PG-13 rated horror film Dream House [DRMHS] boasts a star-studded cast of Daniel Craig [DCRAI], Rachel Weisz [RWEIS] and Naomi Watts [NWATT]. Unfortunately, the film has been delayed for over a year for reshoots and the final product is not being screened for critics. Instead, Universal hopes to draw an audience by seemingly giving away the movie’s every twist and turn. Shown at 2660 locations, Dream House could sell for $8.5 million.

The faith-based drama Courageous [COURG] follows policemen who turned to religion to overcome a tragedy. Director Alex Kendrick’s previous Christian film Fireproof opened to $6.8 million in 2008. With a built-in audience coming in groups, Courageous could gather $8 million from 1161 theaters. As the only new film with an existing fanbase, Courageous has the best chance to breakout and could even fare the best amongst the new releases.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): DLPHN, MONYB, TLK3D, 5050, JGORD, SROGE, AFARI, WYNUM, CEVAN, DRMHS, DCRAI, RWEIS, NWATT, COURG

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, September 29, 2011 @ 04:28 PM 8803 views

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Naomi Ackie (NACKI) 25000 16.70 (-0.39)          Rebecca Ferguson (RFERG) 25000 111.67 (+3.42)          Do Not Enter aka Creepers (CREPR) 1000 2.36 (+0.14)          Benedict Cumberbatch (BCUMB) 25000 58.20 (-30.43)          Wagner Moura (WMOUR) 25000 51.62 (-0.42)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 12000 175.74 (-0.20)          David Thewlis (DTHEW) 25000 100.88 (-0.85)          Lucy Liu (LLIU) 25000 59.22 (0.00)          One of Them Days 2 (1OTD2) 10000 16.00 (0.00)          Martin Scorsese (MSCOR) 25000 17.95 (+0.61)          Tow (TOW) 10000 3.69 (-0.01)          Timur Bekmambetov (TBEKM) 25000 44.81 (+0.60)          48 Hours in Vegas (48HIV) 10000 6.34 (-0.01)          A Head Full of Ghosts (AHFOG) 60000 3.61 (+0.07)          Chris Pratt (CPRAT) 25000 173.21 (-1.06)          Timur Bekmambetov (TBEKM) 25000 44.81 (+0.60)          Chris Pratt (CPRAT) 25000 173.21 (-1.06)          Kristen Stewart (KSTEW) 25000 2.54 (-0.07)          Wagner Moura (WMOUR) 24999 51.62 (-0.42)          Rebecca Ferguson (RFERG) 25000 111.67 (+3.42)          Mandy Moore (MMOOR) 25000 68.13 (+0.25)          Timur Bekmambetov (TBEKM) 24999 44.81 (+0.60)          Paranormal Activity 8 (PNAC8) 150000 25.57 (-0.02)          Timur Bekmambetov (TBEKM) 25000 44.81 (+0.60)          Faces of Death (FACOD) 10000 8.77 (0.00)          Rosemead (ROSEM) 5000 0.26 (-0.01)          4 Kids Walk Into a Bank (4KWIB) 5000 8.36 (-0.01)          Panda Plan 2: The Magical Tribe (PPLA2) 150000 1.02 (-0.01)          Annabelle Wallis (AWALL) 25000 42.24 (+0.70)          Do Not Enter aka Creepers (CREPR) 66666 2.36 (+0.14)          Annabelle Wallis (AWALL) 25000 42.24 (+0.70)          Hoppers - Opening Weekend (HOPPR.OW) 100000 50.00 (0.00)          By Any Means (CI34) 10000 19.56 (+1.57)          Jeremy Irvine (JIRVI) 25000 25.89 (-0.10)          Idiotka (IDOTK) 150000 0.76 (-0.01)          The Bride! - Opening Weekend (BRIDE.OW) 6666 15.00 (0.00)          Riverrun (RVRUN) 150000 1.82 (-0.05)          The Sheep Detectives (3BAGF) 150000 40.42 (+0.15)          The Bride H$15 Put (BRIDE.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          David Thewlis (DTHEW) 25000 100.88 (-0.85)          Momo (MOMO) 5000 4.64 (-0.05)          Scream 7 H$40 Call (SCRM7.CA) 25000 3.34 (-0.04)          The Bride H$15 Call (BRIDE.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Masque Of The Red Death (MOTRD) 10000 16.95 (+0.03)          Scream 7 - Opening Weekend (SCRM7.OW) 100000 46.43 (-0.46)          King Snake (KSNAK) 150000 15.24 (+1.25)          EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert (EPICC) 150000 10.23 (-0.01)          Chris Pratt (CPRAT) 25000 173.21 (-1.06)          Ice Cream Man (ICREM) 150000 10.62 (+0.94)          Insidious 6 (NSID6) 25000 33.05 (+0.01)