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Whisper Numbers: Four newcomers vie for fourth place.

Hollywood sends four new wide releases to the plate this weekend. However, none are likely to contend for first place at the box office, which will be fought over by three holdover films. Although Dolphin Tale [DLPHN] finished third in its opening weekend, the family film has a chance to ascend to the top spot. The inspiration story has earned excellent word of mouth. Without any new competition for the family audience, Dolphin Tale may only decline around 30% to $13.5 million, which could be enough to prevail in a tight race.

The sports drama Moneyball [MONYB] has garnered great word of mouth as well, and could also move up from its second place finish last week. Baseball fans may opt to stay home and watch the playoffs though, so Moneyball could drop about 35% to $13 million.

With moviegoers still eager to check out The Lion King 3D [TLK3D], the animated re-release looks to collect another $13 million before the Blu-ray arrives on Tuesday.

Cancer movies are usually a bummer at the box office but the dramedy 50/50 [5050] hopes to beat the odds. Joseph Gordon-Levitt [JGORD] plays a young cancer patient while Seth Rogen [SROGE] co-star as his friend who helps him deal with the disease. The likeable cast and favorable reviews should appeal to the hipster target audience. Playing in 2458 theaters, the R-rated 50/50 could score $10 million.

Anna Faris [AFARI] is going through his exes to see if she missed ‘The One’ in the romantic comedy What’s Your Number? [WYNUM]. Chris Evans [CEVAN] coming off Captain America co-stars as a neighbor, who undoubtable will tuern out to be ‘The One’. Ads have been funny and should bring out those looking for R-rated laughs. Dialing into 3002 theaters, What’s Your Number? may ring up $9 million.

The PG-13 rated horror film Dream House [DRMHS] boasts a star-studded cast of Daniel Craig [DCRAI], Rachel Weisz [RWEIS] and Naomi Watts [NWATT]. Unfortunately, the film has been delayed for over a year for reshoots and the final product is not being screened for critics. Instead, Universal hopes to draw an audience by seemingly giving away the movie’s every twist and turn. Shown at 2660 locations, Dream House could sell for $8.5 million.

The faith-based drama Courageous [COURG] follows policemen who turned to religion to overcome a tragedy. Director Alex Kendrick’s previous Christian film Fireproof opened to $6.8 million in 2008. With a built-in audience coming in groups, Courageous could gather $8 million from 1161 theaters. As the only new film with an existing fanbase, Courageous has the best chance to breakout and could even fare the best amongst the new releases.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): DLPHN, MONYB, TLK3D, 5050, JGORD, SROGE, AFARI, WYNUM, CEVAN, DRMHS, DCRAI, RWEIS, NWATT, COURG

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, September 29, 2011 @ 04:28 PM 8719 views

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Altered (ALTER) 143330 0.25 (+0.02)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 51552 10.41 (+0.89)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.PU) 100 5.64 (0.00)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 100 1.73 (-0.20)          Thandiwe Newton (TNEWT) 100 90.36 (0.00)          Tim Blake Nelson (TBNEL) 100 43.97 (0.00)          Sigourney Weaver (SWEAV) 60 91.39 (0.00)          Stephen Lang (SLANG) 100 63.22 (0.00)          Regina Hall (RHALL) 100 34.78 (0.00)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 120000 437.88 (-1.28)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 437.88 (-1.28)          Alone Together (ALTGT) 150000 4.00 (+0.28)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 437.88 (-1.28)          Belly of the Beast (BELYB) 150000 4.84 (+0.27)          Alone Together (ALTGT) 150000 4.00 (+0.28)          Babies (BBIES) 20000 12.66 (-0.99)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 150000 10.41 (+0.89)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.80 (+0.99)          Mira Sorvino (MSORV) 10 31.73 (-0.12)          Melania (MLNIA) 150000 1.47 (-0.02)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 11.32 (+0.68)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.80 (+0.99)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.80 (+0.99)          Teen Titans (TEENT) 4665 39.31 (0.00)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 150000 10.41 (+0.89)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 150000 10.41 (+0.89)          Peaked (PEAKD) 150000 8.03 (-0.29)          Peaked (PEAKD) 150000 8.03 (-0.29)          The Chaperones (CHAPR) 150000 10.11 (+0.40)          David H$25 Call (DAVID.CA) 24999 0.69 (-0.03)          The Chaperones (CHAPR) 150000 10.11 (+0.40)          Fellowship (FELWS) 150000 14.60 (-0.40)          Fellowship (FELWS) 150000 14.60 (-0.40)          Maika Monroe (MMONR) 25000 18.25 (-0.10)          Teen Titans (TEENT) 4395 39.31 (0.00)          Josh Safdie (JSAFD) 100 21.75 (0.00)          Magic: The Gathering (MGCTG) 150000 51.01 (+0.20)          Peaked (PEAKD) 150000 8.03 (-0.29)          Peaked (PEAKD) 5000 8.03 (-0.29)          Eleven Days (11DAY) 149999 14.06 (+0.88)          David (DAVID) 25000 73.05 (-0.77)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 35000 110.74 (-1.00)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 25000 437.88 (-1.28)          Johnny Flynn (JFLYN) 50 4.47 (0.00)          The Drama (TDRAM) 149999 19.72 (-0.08)          The Moment (MOMNT) 149999 11.32 (+0.68)          JUJUTSU KAISEN: Execution (JJTK3) 1 14.82 (0.00)          Jemaine Clement (JCLEM) 50 132.31 (+0.33)          Jason Clarke (JCLAR) 100 64.85 (-0.25)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 10 10.41 (+0.89)