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Whisper Numbers: Four newcomers vie for fourth place.

Hollywood sends four new wide releases to the plate this weekend. However, none are likely to contend for first place at the box office, which will be fought over by three holdover films. Although Dolphin Tale [DLPHN] finished third in its opening weekend, the family film has a chance to ascend to the top spot. The inspiration story has earned excellent word of mouth. Without any new competition for the family audience, Dolphin Tale may only decline around 30% to $13.5 million, which could be enough to prevail in a tight race.

The sports drama Moneyball [MONYB] has garnered great word of mouth as well, and could also move up from its second place finish last week. Baseball fans may opt to stay home and watch the playoffs though, so Moneyball could drop about 35% to $13 million.

With moviegoers still eager to check out The Lion King 3D [TLK3D], the animated re-release looks to collect another $13 million before the Blu-ray arrives on Tuesday.

Cancer movies are usually a bummer at the box office but the dramedy 50/50 [5050] hopes to beat the odds. Joseph Gordon-Levitt [JGORD] plays a young cancer patient while Seth Rogen [SROGE] co-star as his friend who helps him deal with the disease. The likeable cast and favorable reviews should appeal to the hipster target audience. Playing in 2458 theaters, the R-rated 50/50 could score $10 million.

Anna Faris [AFARI] is going through his exes to see if she missed ‘The One’ in the romantic comedy What’s Your Number? [WYNUM]. Chris Evans [CEVAN] coming off Captain America co-stars as a neighbor, who undoubtable will tuern out to be ‘The One’. Ads have been funny and should bring out those looking for R-rated laughs. Dialing into 3002 theaters, What’s Your Number? may ring up $9 million.

The PG-13 rated horror film Dream House [DRMHS] boasts a star-studded cast of Daniel Craig [DCRAI], Rachel Weisz [RWEIS] and Naomi Watts [NWATT]. Unfortunately, the film has been delayed for over a year for reshoots and the final product is not being screened for critics. Instead, Universal hopes to draw an audience by seemingly giving away the movie’s every twist and turn. Shown at 2660 locations, Dream House could sell for $8.5 million.

The faith-based drama Courageous [COURG] follows policemen who turned to religion to overcome a tragedy. Director Alex Kendrick’s previous Christian film Fireproof opened to $6.8 million in 2008. With a built-in audience coming in groups, Courageous could gather $8 million from 1161 theaters. As the only new film with an existing fanbase, Courageous has the best chance to breakout and could even fare the best amongst the new releases.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): DLPHN, MONYB, TLK3D, 5050, JGORD, SROGE, AFARI, WYNUM, CEVAN, DRMHS, DCRAI, RWEIS, NWATT, COURG

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, September 29, 2011 @ 04:28 PM 8836 views

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The Simpsons Movie 2 (SIMP2) 150000 164.60 (-0.01)          Parker Posey (PPOSE) 25000 8.33 (+0.05)          The Weight (THEWT) 40000 6.97 (+1.00)          Spaceballs 2 (SPCB2) 150000 123.37 (0.00)          Fast Forever (FAF11) 150000 128.63 (+0.66)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 150000 95.29 (+0.72)          The Weight (THEWT) 10000 6.97 (+1.00)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 150000 158.69 (+0.86)          Balls Up (BALUP) 150000 9.33 (-2.83)          In the Hand of Dante (ITHOD) 150000 5.29 (-1.17)          Sing 3 (SING3) 5000 52.28 (-0.39)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 6.97 (+1.00)          Paris Paramount aka Untitled Nan (PRSPM) 140000 50.59 (+0.15)          Project Hail Mary - Opening Week (PRJHM.OW) 100000 77.36 (+0.50)          Helldivers (HELDV) 140000 99.96 (+0.46)          Victorian Psycho (VPSYC) 40000 14.11 (-0.15)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 100.42 (-2.73)          Project Hail Mary - Opening Week (PRJHM.OW) 100000 77.36 (+0.50)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 100.42 (-2.73)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie - O (MARI2.OW) 100000 146.04 (+1.04)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie H$1 (MARI2.CA) 25000 2.91 (+0.91)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 25000 20.00 (0.00)          Sing 3 (SING3) 4999 52.28 (-0.39)          Dune: Part Three (DUNE3) 1000 234.74 (-0.40)          Balls Up (BALUP) 20000 9.33 (-2.83)          Shameik Moore (SMOOR) 25000 91.79 (-1.10)          Sing 3 (SING3) 1 52.28 (-0.39)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          RJ Cyler (RCYLE) 25000 25.87 (-0.50)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 10000 22.27 (-0.06)          The Beatles - A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 17 117.50 (-0.24)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 100.42 (-2.73)          Sandra Huller (SHULL) 25000 18.08 (+0.20)          Featherwood (FTHRW) 10000 7.23 (0.00)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Balls Up (BALUP) 150000 9.33 (-2.83)          Balls Up (BALUP) 150000 9.33 (-2.83)          The Drama H$15 Call (TDRAM.CA) 25000 2.37 (+0.37)          The Drama H$15 Put (TDRAM.PU) 25000 1.50 (-0.50)          Verity (VERTY) 10000 39.15 (+0.06)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie - O (MARI2.OW) 5000 146.04 (+1.04)          The Drama (TDRAM) 11620 34.60 (+0.07)          The Drama (TDRAM) 1620 34.60 (+0.07)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie H$1 (MARI2.CA) 25000 2.91 (+0.91)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie H$1 (MARI2.PU) 25000 1.76 (-0.24)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 1000 495.05 (-0.51)