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Whisper Numbers: Four newcomers vie for fourth place.

Hollywood sends four new wide releases to the plate this weekend. However, none are likely to contend for first place at the box office, which will be fought over by three holdover films. Although Dolphin Tale [DLPHN] finished third in its opening weekend, the family film has a chance to ascend to the top spot. The inspiration story has earned excellent word of mouth. Without any new competition for the family audience, Dolphin Tale may only decline around 30% to $13.5 million, which could be enough to prevail in a tight race.

The sports drama Moneyball [MONYB] has garnered great word of mouth as well, and could also move up from its second place finish last week. Baseball fans may opt to stay home and watch the playoffs though, so Moneyball could drop about 35% to $13 million.

With moviegoers still eager to check out The Lion King 3D [TLK3D], the animated re-release looks to collect another $13 million before the Blu-ray arrives on Tuesday.

Cancer movies are usually a bummer at the box office but the dramedy 50/50 [5050] hopes to beat the odds. Joseph Gordon-Levitt [JGORD] plays a young cancer patient while Seth Rogen [SROGE] co-star as his friend who helps him deal with the disease. The likeable cast and favorable reviews should appeal to the hipster target audience. Playing in 2458 theaters, the R-rated 50/50 could score $10 million.

Anna Faris [AFARI] is going through his exes to see if she missed ‘The One’ in the romantic comedy What’s Your Number? [WYNUM]. Chris Evans [CEVAN] coming off Captain America co-stars as a neighbor, who undoubtable will tuern out to be ‘The One’. Ads have been funny and should bring out those looking for R-rated laughs. Dialing into 3002 theaters, What’s Your Number? may ring up $9 million.

The PG-13 rated horror film Dream House [DRMHS] boasts a star-studded cast of Daniel Craig [DCRAI], Rachel Weisz [RWEIS] and Naomi Watts [NWATT]. Unfortunately, the film has been delayed for over a year for reshoots and the final product is not being screened for critics. Instead, Universal hopes to draw an audience by seemingly giving away the movie’s every twist and turn. Shown at 2660 locations, Dream House could sell for $8.5 million.

The faith-based drama Courageous [COURG] follows policemen who turned to religion to overcome a tragedy. Director Alex Kendrick’s previous Christian film Fireproof opened to $6.8 million in 2008. With a built-in audience coming in groups, Courageous could gather $8 million from 1161 theaters. As the only new film with an existing fanbase, Courageous has the best chance to breakout and could even fare the best amongst the new releases.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): DLPHN, MONYB, TLK3D, 5050, JGORD, SROGE, AFARI, WYNUM, CEVAN, DRMHS, DCRAI, RWEIS, NWATT, COURG

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, September 29, 2011 @ 04:28 PM 8413 views

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Good Fortune (GDFRT) 6239 30.14 (-0.22)          The Exorcism (TGTWP) 150000 1.72 (+0.16)          The Exorcism (TGTWP) 150000 1.72 (+0.16)          28 Years Later (28LT3) 750 53.74 (+2.13)          Summer Camp (SUMCP) 150000 8.17 (+0.50)          Summer Camp (SUMCP) 150000 8.17 (+0.50)          Dog Man (DOGM1) 1 30.12 (-0.10)          Emily Blunt (EBLUN) 25000 138.10 (+0.67)          Kraven the Hunter (KRAVN) 1 104.64 (-0.77)          Emily Blunt (EBLUN) 25000 138.10 (+0.67)          The Forge (TFORG) 150000 17.53 (+0.49)          Passion of the Christ 2: The Res (RESUR) 1 32.23 (-0.11)          The Forge (TFORG) 150000 17.53 (+0.49)          28 Years Later (28LT3) 150000 53.74 (+2.13)          Madden (MADEN) 10000 25.00 (0.00)          The Forge (TFORG) 150000 17.53 (+0.49)          The Forge (TFORG) 150000 17.53 (+0.49)          Ryan Gosling (RGOSL) 25000 109.31 (-0.99)          Ryan Gosling (RGOSL) 25000 109.31 (-0.99)          Unsung Hero H$10 Put (UNSUN.PU) 25000 3.29 (-0.07)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Summer Camp (SUMCP) 150000 8.17 (+0.50)          Summer Camp (SUMCP) 150000 8.17 (+0.50)          Summer Camp (SUMCP) 76000 8.17 (+0.50)          Good Fortune (GDFRT) 21427 30.14 (-0.22)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4.CA) 25000 1.50 (-0.50)          The Exorcism (TGTWP) 150000 1.72 (+0.16)          The Exorcism (TGTWP) 150000 1.72 (+0.16)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4.OW) 100000 46.14 (-3.86)          Clue (CLUE) 20000 18.24 (+2.27)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4.OW) 100000 46.14 (-3.86)          Rihanna documentary (RHANA) 74999 6.83 (-0.04)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4.PU) 25000 2.49 (+0.49)          The Forge (TFORG) 150000 17.53 (+0.49)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4.CA) 25000 1.50 (-0.50)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4.OW) 100000 46.14 (-3.86)          Hard Miles (HRDML) 150000 0.98 (0.00)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Good Fortune (GDFRT) 29812 30.14 (-0.22)          Glitter & Doom (GLTDM) 150000 0.13 (-0.04)          The Forge (TFORG) 150000 17.53 (+0.49)          Exhibiting Forgiveness (XHBTF) 150000 2.57 (-0.16)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Housekeeping for Beginners (HKFBG) 150000 0.51 (-0.02)          The Monkey (MONKY) 149975 19.49 (-0.62)          The Fall Guy H$50 Call (FALGY.CA) 25000 2.37 (-0.02)          The Fall Guy - Opening Weekend (FALGY.OW) 100000 45.28 (-0.06)          Blink Twice (PUSYL) 150000 23.49 (-0.14)          The Fall Guy H$50 Put (FALGY.PU) 25000 3.82 (+0.30)