SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Four newcomers vie for fourth place.

Hollywood sends four new wide releases to the plate this weekend. However, none are likely to contend for first place at the box office, which will be fought over by three holdover films. Although Dolphin Tale [DLPHN] finished third in its opening weekend, the family film has a chance to ascend to the top spot. The inspiration story has earned excellent word of mouth. Without any new competition for the family audience, Dolphin Tale may only decline around 30% to $13.5 million, which could be enough to prevail in a tight race.

The sports drama Moneyball [MONYB] has garnered great word of mouth as well, and could also move up from its second place finish last week. Baseball fans may opt to stay home and watch the playoffs though, so Moneyball could drop about 35% to $13 million.

With moviegoers still eager to check out The Lion King 3D [TLK3D], the animated re-release looks to collect another $13 million before the Blu-ray arrives on Tuesday.

Cancer movies are usually a bummer at the box office but the dramedy 50/50 [5050] hopes to beat the odds. Joseph Gordon-Levitt [JGORD] plays a young cancer patient while Seth Rogen [SROGE] co-star as his friend who helps him deal with the disease. The likeable cast and favorable reviews should appeal to the hipster target audience. Playing in 2458 theaters, the R-rated 50/50 could score $10 million.

Anna Faris [AFARI] is going through his exes to see if she missed ‘The One’ in the romantic comedy What’s Your Number? [WYNUM]. Chris Evans [CEVAN] coming off Captain America co-stars as a neighbor, who undoubtable will tuern out to be ‘The One’. Ads have been funny and should bring out those looking for R-rated laughs. Dialing into 3002 theaters, What’s Your Number? may ring up $9 million.

The PG-13 rated horror film Dream House [DRMHS] boasts a star-studded cast of Daniel Craig [DCRAI], Rachel Weisz [RWEIS] and Naomi Watts [NWATT]. Unfortunately, the film has been delayed for over a year for reshoots and the final product is not being screened for critics. Instead, Universal hopes to draw an audience by seemingly giving away the movie’s every twist and turn. Shown at 2660 locations, Dream House could sell for $8.5 million.

The faith-based drama Courageous [COURG] follows policemen who turned to religion to overcome a tragedy. Director Alex Kendrick’s previous Christian film Fireproof opened to $6.8 million in 2008. With a built-in audience coming in groups, Courageous could gather $8 million from 1161 theaters. As the only new film with an existing fanbase, Courageous has the best chance to breakout and could even fare the best amongst the new releases.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): DLPHN, MONYB, TLK3D, 5050, JGORD, SROGE, AFARI, WYNUM, CEVAN, DRMHS, DCRAI, RWEIS, NWATT, COURG

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, September 29, 2011 @ 04:28 PM 8975 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.



The Revenge of La Llorona (LORN2) 10000 23.73 (0.00)          When Darkness Loves Us (WDLUS) 150000 7.97 (+0.20)          The Revenge of La Llorona (LORN2) 9000 23.73 (0.00)          Scary Movie (SCAR6) 1 105.05 (0.00)          Hexed (HEXED) 1000 120.32 (0.00)          The End of Oak Street (FLWVS) 1000 79.54 (0.00)          Wonder Woman (WOND3) 65 43.84 (0.00)          Wonka 2 (WONK2) 60 56.61 (0.00)          Milly Alcock (MALCO) 260 64.88 (-0.01)          Michael Sarnoski (MSARN) 40 55.15 (0.00)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 3 206.16 (-0.01)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 23 17.88 (+0.37)          The Flood (FLOOD) 2000 84.37 (+0.01)          Ice Age: Boiling Point (ICEA6) 5 84.88 (+0.25)          Avengers: Doomsday (AVNG5) 3 524.97 (-0.03)          Digger (DIGER) 4 132.58 (+0.02)          Young Washington (YWASH) 2000 30.34 (0.00)          Practical Magic 2 (PRAC2) 4 56.11 (+0.02)          Fall 2: Deadpoint (FALL2) 15 7.82 (+0.10)          Alien sequel (ALIE6) 2000 82.07 (0.00)          The Death of Robin Hood (TDORH) 25 17.38 (+0.36)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 5 116.95 (-0.01)          Paris Paramount aka Untitled Nan (PRSPM) 1000 55.90 (0.00)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 5000 18.20 (0.00)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 3000 206.16 (-0.01)          Bluey the Movie (BLUEY) 1000 139.31 (0.00)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 141551 116.95 (-0.01)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 1 409.29 (0.00)          Avengers: Doomsday (AVNG5) 5000 524.97 (-0.03)          Minions & Monsters (MNIO3) 1 307.27 (0.00)          Avengers: Doomsday (AVNG5) 2000 524.97 (-0.03)          My Darling California (MDCAL) 10000 22.33 (0.00)          Hot Spot (HTSPT) 150000 6.31 (+0.27)          Flywheel: Ignition of the Soul (FLYWH) 150000 9.68 (+0.40)          Flywheel: Ignition of the Soul (FLYWH) 150000 9.68 (+0.40)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 150000 17.88 (+0.37)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 150000 17.88 (+0.37)          Hot Spot (HTSPT) 10000 6.31 (+0.27)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 49615 75.01 (+0.01)          Buddy (BUDDY) 150000 7.18 (+0.34)          Buddy (BUDDY) 150000 7.18 (+0.34)          Buddy (BUDDY) 150000 7.18 (+0.34)          Clayface (CLAYF) 10000 90.13 (+0.01)          Buddy (BUDDY) 150000 7.18 (+0.34)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 5000 27.51 (0.00)          Verity (VERTY) 5000 51.43 (0.00)          Digger (DIGER) 10000 132.58 (+0.02)          Resident Evil (RESE8) 5000 61.45 (0.00)          Wilford Nappy Pulawa biopic (NAPPY) 5000 49.21 (0.00)          Practical Magic 2 (PRAC2) 15000 56.11 (+0.02)