April is the new May as Disney releases the Marvel superhero sequel Captain America: The Winter Solider [CAPA2]. Chris Evans [CEVAN] reprises the role in Steve Rogers’ second solo outing, while Scarlett Johansson [SJOHA] and Samuel L. Jackson [SLJAC] lend their support from The Avengers. That 2012 superhero team-up blockbuster gave the opening weekend of Iron Man 3 a 39% bump over Iron Man 2, while Thor: The Dark World got a 30% bump over Thor. Set during World War II, Captain America: The First Avenger opened to $65 million in 2011. With S.H.I.E.L.D. at the center of its story, The Winter Solider should enjoy an Avengers bump closer to Iron Man than Thor. Advance sales are already pacing ahead of Thor: The Dark World’s $85.7 million and Fast Five’s April record $86.2 million. Disney has put all its marketing might behind the PG-13 rated film and appears confident enough to rush the third film to battle WB’s Superman and Batman in 2016. Captain America has generated overwhelmingly positive buzz from fans and excellent reviews from critics. Opening in 3938 theater, Captain America: The Winter Solider could score $95 million.
For all its pre-release controversy, Noah [NOAH] did slightly better than expected. However, moviegoers gave the film a CinemaScore of C, indicating poor word of mouth. With Captain America taking over the multiplex, Noah is poised to sink more than 50% to $19 million.
Despite its female fanbase, Divergent [DVRGN] is proving to be as front-loaded as its male-targeted films and may drop 50% in its third outing to $13 million. Families should help Muppets Most Wanted [MUPE2] bring in another $7 million.
Continuing to add theaters in its second weekend of wide release, The Grand Budapest Hotel [GBHTL] could fill up its coffers with $6 million.
That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.
Tag(s): CAPA2, CEVAN, SJOHA, SLJAC, NOAH, DVRGN, MUPE2, GBHTL