SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Dory may sink Independence Day

The summer of sequels continues with another long-in-the-making second film that comes more than a decade, or two decades in the case of Independence Day: Resurgence [IDAY2], after the original. However, Finding Dory [NEMO2] is likely to remain at the top after its record-breaking debut. Among recent Pixar sequels, 2013’s Monsters University declined 45% in its second weekend, 2010’s Toy Story 3 dropped 46% and 2011’s Cars 2 stalled at 60%. Finding Dory will likely decay at a similar rate to the better received sequels for a sophomore frame of $73 million.

20 years ago, Independence Day destroyed the White House and most of the world to become the top film of 1996. Director Roland Emmerich [REMME] finally follows up with Independence Day: Resurgence, albeit without its biggest star Will Smith. Jeff Goldblum [JGOLD] and Bill Pullman [BPULL] do return to lead young newcomers Liam Hemsworth [LHEMS] and Maika Monroe [MMONR] against another invasion with bigger spaceships, bigger aliens and bigger explosions. Fox hopes to capture moviegoers’ nostalgia similar to what Jurassic World did last year. However, that franchise has a monopoly on CG-dinosaurs, while Independence Day’s signature destruction of landmarks have been copied by countless blockbuster films over the last 20 years. Rather than trot out the actors on talk shows, Fox has stuck mainly to a viral marketing campaign, while foregoing screenings for critics that might have generated bad buzz. Blasting off in 4067 theaters, Independence Day: Resurgence may land $55 million.

Central Intelligence [CINTL] connected with its target audience, but did not overperform expectations. The action comedy could slide close to 50% to $18 million.

Perhaps sensing a weakness in the competition, Sony pushed up the release of The Shallows [SHALW] by a week. Blake Lively [BLIVE] is the lone star of the PG-13 rated shark survival thriller. While female teens and young adults are the primary demographics, The Shallows with its excellent reviews could attract older adults.  Riding into 2962 theaters, The Shallows could break out with $13 million.

Matthew McConaughey [MMCCO] toplines Free State of Jones [FSJON] based on real Civil War-era events. While the story could have made for an awards-worthy drama, STX is selling it like an action film. Poor reviews bear that out. Free State of Jones may declare $9 million from 2815 locations.

Amazon Studios and Broad Green open the R-rated thriller The Neon Demon [NEOND] in 786 theaters. Likely to appeal only to hipsters familiar with auteur Nicholas Winding Refn [NWREF], The Neon Demon could nab $2.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): IDAY2, NEMO2, REMME, JGOLD, BPULL, LHEMS, MMONR, CINTL, SHALW, BLIVE, MMCCO, FSJON, NEOND, NWREF

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 23, 2016 @ 03:40 PM 1771 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.


twitter

@HSXMOVIES on Twitter





Follow HSX on Twitter!


Hotel Transylvania: Transformania pushed back its release date to October 1st https://t.co/6jZwOfrj4Q       First Look at #Jolt starring Kate Beckinsale https://t.co/G1nFPYnODz       First trailer for #JoeBell starring Mark Wahlberg https://t.co/naGf0UtQbl       Wiz Khalifa to play George Clinton, Tayla Parx to play Donna Summer and Ledisi to play Gladys Knight in Spinning Go…       Whisper Numbers: Does #HitmansWifesBodyguard has enough to win top prize? #HSX #BoxOffice Forecast…       Trailer for Settlers starring Sofia Boutella https://t.co/nv4oJylB4B       Hiroyuki Sanada joins John Wick: Chapter 4        Trailer for Pig starring Nicolas Cage https://t.co/g0UKnegqEY       Trailer for How It Ends from Zoe Lister-Jones https://t.co/O3JgL7WQwL       First Look at Beckett starring John David Washington, premiering August 13 on Netflix https://t.co/qVSSKNLXNz      
The Loud House Movie (LOUDH) 1000 0.36 (0.00)         Die in a Gunfight (DINGF) 1000 0.57 (-0.01)         Luca (LUCA) 3000 3.19 (-0.07)         Fatherhood (FATHD) 1000 0.57 (+0.02)         Rita Moreno: Just a Girl Who Dec (RMJAG) 150000 0.71 (-0.02)         Siberia (SIBRA) 150000 0.81 (0.00)         Luca (LUCA) 150000 3.19 (-0.07)         12 Mighty Orphans (12MOR) 150000 4.34 (-0.11)         Venom: Let There Be Carnage (VENM2) 59763 149.94 (+0.57)         The Year of the Everlasting Stor (YOTES) 150000 1.23 (+0.05)         Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat (TCATH) 141289 25.57 (+0.05)         Mayday (MAYDY) 150000 1.43 (-0.28)         George Foreman biopic (GFORE) 150000 16.96 (-0.04)         A Hero (AHERO) 150000 1.69 (+0.40)         About Fate (ABTFT) 150000 3.38 (+0.01)         Fantastic Beasts 3 (FBST3) 500 77.94 (+0.10)         The Ploughmen (PLOUM) 150000 3.69 (-0.31)         Django/Zorro (DJAN2) 1 25.08 (+0.77)         Steven Spielberg (SSPIE) 25000 48.72 (-0.34)         Venom: Let There Be Carnage (VENM2) 50000 149.94 (+0.57)         Elvis (ELVIS) 150000 54.04 (+0.29)         Red Notice (RNOTC) 150000 3.63 (+0.07)         Ron's Gone Wrong (RONGW) 150000 39.70 (-0.05)         Werewolves Within (WRWVW) 150000 1.43 (0.00)         Georgetown (GTOWN) 10000 0.02 (-0.01)         Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway (PRAB2) 10000 37.24 (-0.13)         Django/Zorro (DJAN2) 150000 25.08 (+0.77)         Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (SNWHT) 1 110.33 (+0.11)         Under the Boardwalk (UNDBW) 1 28.65 (-0.02)         Nitram (NITRM) 150000 4.23 (+0.97)         Top Gun: Maverick (TOPG2) 999 156.43 (0.00)         Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (TMNT3) 1 38.65 (-0.08)         The Ploughmen (PLOUM) 149859 3.69 (-0.31)         The Boss Baby: Family Business (BOSS2) 1 56.86 (-0.04)         The Marvels aka Captain Marvel 2 (CMAR2) 100000 223.30 (0.00)         The Beatles: Get Back (LETBE) 9 3.01 (+0.05)         The Ploughmen (PLOUM) 141 3.69 (-0.31)         The Kingsman 3 (KTSS4) 9999 31.14 (-0.05)         Avatar 3 (AVAT3) 5000 321.51 (-0.52)         Pokemon: Detective Pikachu 2 (PIKA2) 1 53.26 (-0.04)         The Little Mermaid - Disney (TLMER) 5000 222.77 (-0.35)         Fantastic Four (FANF2) 150000 53.39 (0.00)         Pinocchio - Disney (PNOCC) 19999 21.42 (-0.04)         Son of Kong (KONG2) 99999 85.91 (-0.47)         Ladies in Black (LDBLK) 10000 0.35 (0.00)         Rush Hour 4 (RUSH4) 9999 11.43 (+0.01)         Fantastic Four (FANF2) 9999 53.39 (0.00)         Elvis (ELVIS) 1 54.04 (+0.29)         Cinderella (CNDRL) 1 8.71 (0.00)         Cinderella (CNDRL) 30000 8.71 (0.00)