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Whisper Numbers: Dory may sink Independence Day

The summer of sequels continues with another long-in-the-making second film that comes more than a decade, or two decades in the case of Independence Day: Resurgence [IDAY2], after the original. However, Finding Dory [NEMO2] is likely to remain at the top after its record-breaking debut. Among recent Pixar sequels, 2013’s Monsters University declined 45% in its second weekend, 2010’s Toy Story 3 dropped 46% and 2011’s Cars 2 stalled at 60%. Finding Dory will likely decay at a similar rate to the better received sequels for a sophomore frame of $73 million.

20 years ago, Independence Day destroyed the White House and most of the world to become the top film of 1996. Director Roland Emmerich [REMME] finally follows up with Independence Day: Resurgence, albeit without its biggest star Will Smith. Jeff Goldblum [JGOLD] and Bill Pullman [BPULL] do return to lead young newcomers Liam Hemsworth [LHEMS] and Maika Monroe [MMONR] against another invasion with bigger spaceships, bigger aliens and bigger explosions. Fox hopes to capture moviegoers’ nostalgia similar to what Jurassic World did last year. However, that franchise has a monopoly on CG-dinosaurs, while Independence Day’s signature destruction of landmarks have been copied by countless blockbuster films over the last 20 years. Rather than trot out the actors on talk shows, Fox has stuck mainly to a viral marketing campaign, while foregoing screenings for critics that might have generated bad buzz. Blasting off in 4067 theaters, Independence Day: Resurgence may land $55 million.

Central Intelligence [CINTL] connected with its target audience, but did not overperform expectations. The action comedy could slide close to 50% to $18 million.

Perhaps sensing a weakness in the competition, Sony pushed up the release of The Shallows [SHALW] by a week. Blake Lively [BLIVE] is the lone star of the PG-13 rated shark survival thriller. While female teens and young adults are the primary demographics, The Shallows with its excellent reviews could attract older adults.  Riding into 2962 theaters, The Shallows could break out with $13 million.

Matthew McConaughey [MMCCO] toplines Free State of Jones [FSJON] based on real Civil War-era events. While the story could have made for an awards-worthy drama, STX is selling it like an action film. Poor reviews bear that out. Free State of Jones may declare $9 million from 2815 locations.

Amazon Studios and Broad Green open the R-rated thriller The Neon Demon [NEOND] in 786 theaters. Likely to appeal only to hipsters familiar with auteur Nicholas Winding Refn [NWREF], The Neon Demon could nab $2.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.


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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 23, 2016 @ 03:40 PM 1771 views

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