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Whisper Numbers: Will The Book of Eli deliver against Avatar?

After scoring the biggest second, third and fourth weekends of all times, can Avatar [HWAVA] sink Titanic’s $30 million for the best fifth weekend ever as well?  Chances are good for the blue aliens since the 3-day portion of the weekend fall before the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.   The 3D sci-fi epic has lost little momentum in its march through the record books.  Avatar should be able to attract around $42 million over the 4-day and remain King of the Box Office.

Denzel Washington [DWASH] takes his persona to the post-apocalyptic world in the R-rated actioner The Book of Eli [BOELI].  Washington is a steady performer in the $25-30 million range, plus the film’s genre should attract more male moviegoers.  Opening in 3111 theaters, The Book of Eli could deliver $35 million over the long weekend.

Jackie Chan [JCHAN] stars in the PG-rated comedy The Spy Next Door [SPYND], which is targeted at kids rather his action fans.  Lionsgate may be encouraged by the success of Paul Blart: Mall Cop last year, but the premise of a secret agent turned babysitter is a tired cliché.  Nevertheless, there should be enough of a family audience to give The Spy Next Door $14 million over four days from 2924 locations.

After five weeks of limited release, The Lovely Bones [LVBON] expands into 2563 theaters.  Peter Jackson’s [PJACK] adaptation of the popular novel had been considered an awards magnet, until the film opened to terrible reviews.  Paramount is now repositioning the film to attract young women, the only demographic wto respond favorably to the drama.  The Lovely Bones could muster $10 million over the holiday weekend on the strength of its pedigree.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): HWAVA, DWASH, BOELI, JCHAN, SPYND, LVBON, PJACK

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, January 14, 2010 @ 03:53 PM 4049 views

Recent Comments

kwameAbgy
Saturday, January 16 at 20:06 PM Pacific
what happens if this predictions fail. Lets really look at the pictures of the production because low budget movies with good actors and actress look like good toys in the ghetto.



Thunderbolts* (TBOLT) 500 175.24 (0.00)          Snow White (SNWHT) 500 178.14 (-0.34)          Kraven the Hunter (KRAVN) 500 111.37 (+0.11)          Daisy Ridley (DRIDL) 1000 47.96 (-1.39)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 1000 261.24 (-0.13)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 150000 38.78 (-1.22)          Flight Risk (FLTRS) 150000 25.84 (+1.53)          Avengers 5 (AVNG5) 1000 345.54 (+0.90)          Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die (GLHFD) 150000 18.55 (+0.24)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 5000 38.78 (-1.22)          Sight (SIGHT) 150000 7.81 (-0.28)          Blade (BLAD1) 2500 117.75 (+0.11)          Jazzy (JAZZY) 8 2.02 (-0.06)          Mortal Kombat 2 (MKMB2) 2500 36.32 (+0.13)          Tron: Ares (TRON3) 2500 88.54 (0.00)          Joan Chen (JCHEN) 24988 2.00 (0.00)          Saw XI aka Saw 11 (SAW11) 2000 29.77 (-0.02)          Woman of the Hour aka The Dating (DATGM) 150000 2.24 (-0.01)          Dirty Dancing sequel (DANC3) 2000 30.57 (-0.03)          Caught Stealing (CSTEL) 235 33.64 (-0.06)          Vicious (VICUS) 2000 21.97 (+0.01)          Metal Men (METAL) 83233 17.54 (+0.08)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 150000 38.78 (-1.22)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 150000 38.78 (-1.22)          Woman of the Hour aka The Dating (DATGM) 33521 2.24 (-0.01)          Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (MMAX5) 100000 100.03 (-13.04)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 150000 38.78 (-1.22)          Mission: Impossible 8 (MISS8) 1500 154.69 (-0.66)          Michael (MJACK) 1000 64.45 (+0.05)          M3GAN 2.0 (M3GA2) 1000 66.67 (+0.25)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 19 84.95 (-2.41)          Minecraft (MINEC) 2000 96.35 (+0.33)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 2500 182.83 (+1.34)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 150000 38.78 (-1.22)          Red One (REDON) 1000 83.34 (+0.25)          The Strangers: Chapter 2 (STRN4) 3000 23.44 (-0.01)          Venom: The Last Dance aka Venom (VENM3) 1500 169.56 (-0.26)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 150000 38.78 (-1.22)          Smile 2 aka Smiles (SMIL2) 2500 51.93 (+0.41)          The Substance (SBSTN) 50 6.22 (-0.40)          Megalopolis (MEGAL) 3000 27.79 (+0.17)          Bird (BIRD) 50 2.55 (-0.12)          The Lord of the Rings: The War o (LOTR4) 149999 125.71 (-0.99)          The Lord of the Rings: The War o (LOTR4) 150000 125.71 (-0.99)          Woman of the Hour aka The Dating (DATGM) 50 2.24 (-0.01)          Emily Mortimer (EMORT) 449 37.54 (0.00)          The Crow (TCROW) 2000 22.01 (-0.03)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 80000 84.95 (-2.41)          Amber Heard (AHEAR) 25000 106.86 (-0.66)          It Ends with Us (ITEND) 1000 38.08 (+0.02)